attml Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I know I am still the FNG relative to a lot of the senior members but was kind of shocked to look in this morning and not see a dedicated event thread? Just checked CWG and their snow outlook number is improving and Accuweather has a map up showing 1-3 for the whole DC / MD area with 3-6 out west. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I know I am still the FNG relative to a lot of the senior members but was kind of shocked to look in this morning and not see a dedicated event thread? Just checked CWG and their snow outlook number is improving and Accuweather has a map up showing 1-3 for the whole DC / MD area with 3-6 out west. What gives? My thoughts.....low confidence and this past weekend put winter to bed for a lot of folks. As usual, that accuweather map is overdone, but thats what they do. I'd shave a good portion off the VA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Light event ripe for disappointment and not a very interesting setup. Just moisture interacting with a boundary/front. But with other events on the horizon it's a good idea to separate this one to cover disco and obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 models backed off the 1-2" idea....but I am still interested...I don't remember the models being right at this range for any other event...could mean more...could mean nothing if that is the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Because sane people will be asleep for most of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Because we prob won't see much more than an inch out of it... and if you really want to stay up after midnight for crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Let's face it. It's the end of February. This is a snoozer on the heels of a very nice Springish weekend. If the Euro offers up some consistency on the storm after the storm maybe folks will perk up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The problem with snow weenies.....they give up too quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This is one where models trick you into thinking there is hope when there really isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This is one where models trick you into thinking there is hope when there really isn't. you have a good chance of being right and if so, good call...doesn't mean anyone was wishcasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 you have a good chance of being right and if so, good call...doesn't mean anyone was wishcasting... It could still moisten back up a bit.. hard to say. Interesting the NAM almost looks better tomorrow though dubious on that. The only thing I'd say specifically about wishcasting is I think sometimes we tend to focus on good trends we remember rather than ones that don't work out well. As noted last night there are a number of cases where models were too wet this winter from lead, not always just the other way around. And in general, tough snow setups here are tough even in a "good' winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS is ~0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It could still moisten back up a bit.. hard to say. Interesting the NAM almost looks better tomorrow though dubious on that. The only thing I'd say specifically about wishcasting is I think sometimes we tend to focus on good trends we remember rather than ones that don't work out well. As noted last night there are a number of cases where models were too wet this winter from lead, not always just the other way around. And in general, tough snow setups here are tough even in a "good' winter. agreed..though I have been bearish on pretty much every event this winter...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Interesting the NAM almost looks better tomorrow though dubious on that. RGEM paints .08-.10 tomorrow from along and w of 95. eta: And here's the hres nam. Pretty similar. It would be funny to get an inch out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 If this was the 11/12 or 12/13 winter, there would be two dedicated threads and we'd be in storm mode lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 RGEM paints .08-.10 tomorrow from along and w of 95. eta: rgem1.JPG And here's the hres nam. Pretty similar. It would be funny to get an inch out of it. hresnam.JPG it would be a nice little treat...will certainly be cold enough it it comes in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 agreed..though I have been bearish on pretty much every event this winter...lol... Yes, that's true. I was being provocative.. tho people like you shape the convo so if you're in for bigger than it looks lots follow (often with much less reasoning). But of course it hasn't happened.. the Euro might come in with .25"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 RGEM paints .08-.10 tomorrow from along and w of 95. eta: rgem1.JPG And here's the hres nam. Pretty similar. It would be funny to get an inch out of it. hresnam.JPG Mapgirl may get 1".. mood flakes for me? The short leads usually do well.. eh, downsloping etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yes, that's true. I was being provocative.. tho people like you shape the convo so if you're in for bigger than it looks lots follow (often with much less reasoning). But of course it hasn't happened.. the Euro might come in with .25"+. Euro has tomorrow's event as well, and should be plenty cold...maybe that will be the overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Mapgirl may get 1".. mood flakes for me? The short leads usually do well.. eh, downsloping etc. It's almost spring. Embedded convection over the cities ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro has tomorrow's event as well, and should be plenty cold...maybe that will be the overperformer Yeah, it does.. hadn't looked specifically. Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 meh, you can have my 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 meh, you can have my 1" deck pics coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 deck pics coming! negative ghost rider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I was trying to remember the last weather post you made and couldn't think of one in recent weeks. Perv j/k of course. No comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 no interest in a 1 inch event in late february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GGEM, roughly 0.05" for tomorrow and 0.08" for Wednesday.... can we get more than a cartopper tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 No comment. Dude..seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Dude..seriously? I apologize to anyone who was offended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 I predict a model fail (as shown below). I'm going with 3 inches in Anne Arundel County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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