Geos Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 March starts at the end of the week. There is pretty good agreement that March will be below normal, but will the whole month be that way? Will it produce a couple good snowstorms as the pattern inevitably changes towards a more spring one? From what can be seen on the GFS at least (the last several runs), the first 6-7 days look brutal in terms of cold and departures, but there is some indication that around the 7th the worst of the cold pulls into eastern Canada and out of the subforum leaving us with more seasonable readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 March 1st, at least compared to normals, looks the coldest of the whole winter... at least when viewing the Euro anomaly map. Lets just write off the 1st week of March to the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It would be fitting if this cold, stormy, white, long winter went out with a bang with some massive snowstorm. We have already broke the bank with snowcover, so a quick melting snowstorm would be just find to "pad the stats" upward. We are already at 2nd snowiest winter on record here, but we need 15.1 more inches to bump the archaic 1880-81 from #1. BTW...dont forget...averages are rising. While the severe cold should be gone after the first week of March, temps still look well below normal the 2nd week. With the departures dug deep by mid-month, it would be a huge hole to climb out of. I would say this month is as good a lock as you will ever see for below normal temps. Now....storminess is way more up in the air. Average highs here start at 40F on the 1st...45F on the 15th...and 53F on the 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I'm all for a cool/cold March if I could lock in at least 2nd place for the all time streak of 1"+ snowcover for Milwaukee, which right now seems like a decent likelihood. #1 on the all time list would be an incredible feat to hit, it could easily be a record that will never be approached again, so if we're going to break it, might as well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I'm all for a cool/cold March if I could lock in at least 2nd place for the all time streak of 1"+ snowcover for Milwaukee, which right now seems like a decent likelihood. #1 on the all time list would be an incredible feat to hit, it could easily be a record that will never be approached again, so if we're going to break it, might as well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Nice and seasonal in, MEXico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I guess we are posting day 16 maps now? Good to know that we have sunk that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This boring argument aside... Things look to remain cold for a while into March, the question is to what degree. Euro is a bit flatter with the pattern by March compared to the GFS, although both models have backed off a bit on the -30c at 850 moving into USA. If it does sneak into US, it won't last too long. If things were to end up more zonal like the Euro is showing, the southern part of the region would actually have an outside chance at ending up closer to normal especially by Day 10. Of course the pattern is highly volatile, so I would expect changes in the degree of below normal temperatures for the region to occur as we get into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The CFSv2 has been remarkably consistent overall with a cold signal for March and has done well with February. So I'm inclined to buy into it. It shows a stable -EPO regime and somewhat of a tendency for ridging in the west on the monthly ensemble runs run daily and the weeklies. Given the rapidly increasing sun angle and hours of daylight, there will likely be some mildish days mixed in but it's becoming clearer that colder than normal will be the rule for much of the subforum. How cold will likely depend some on getting better snow cover established over the next week to ten days because it really doesn't take much to overachieve this time of year. I see anomalies at least similar to last March, which was about 5 degrees below normal in the western part of the sub, including northern IL and NW Indiana. Hopefully there are increasing signs of higher heights in the south/southeast which will keep the baroclinic zone farther north and could aid in storminess, or even popping a legitimate -PNA. That could easily yield something similar to what we just saw last Thurs with impressive snow and wind in the cold sector and severe wx in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The CFSv2 has been remarkably consistent overall with a cold signal for March and has done well with February. So I'm inclined to buy into it. It shows a stable -EPO regime and somewhat of a tendency for ridging in the west. Given the rapidly increasing sun angle and hours of daylight, there will likely be some mildish days mixed in but it's becoming clear that colder than normal will be the rule for much of the subforum. How cold will likely depend some on getting better snow cover established over the next week to ten days because it really doesn't take much to overachieve this time of year. I see anomalies at least similar to last March, which was about 5 degrees below normal in the western part of the sub, including northern IL and NW Indiana. Sent from my SCH-I535 I'd agree especially with the bold part. I could also see that being the case here and into ON. South of here is across IN/OH especially south of I-70 would be the area that would have a chance at being closer to normal especially considering their lack of snow cover currently compared to the rest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I'd agree especially with the bold part. I could also see that being the case here and into ON. South of here is across IN/OH especially south of I-70 would be the area that would have a chance at being closer to normal especially considering their lack of snow cover currently compared to the rest of the region. Yeah I was too lazy too check what the anomalies were last March in lower MI, but I figured close to what we had. Considering that a deeper snowpack has been maintained in lower MI and parts of OH than in parts of northeast IL including Chicago, I agree that those areas are at least as likely to have a March as cold as last year. The precipitation and snow part of the puzzle is tougher but I think there will be a decent baroclinic zone to work with. Also with snow cover likely hanging on into at least a portion of April in the northern Plains, could set up for a better severe weather pattern down the road. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It would be fitting if this cold, stormy, white, long winter went out with a bang with some massive snowstorm. We have already broke the bank with snowcover, so a quick melting snowstorm would be just find to "pad the stats" upward. We are already at 2nd snowiest winter on record here, but we need 15.1 more inches to bump the archaic 1880-81 from #1. BTW...dont forget...averages are rising. While the severe cold should be gone after the first week of March, temps still look well below normal the 2nd week. With the departures dug deep by mid-month, it would be a huge hole to climb out of. I would say this month is as good a lock as you will ever see for below normal temps. Now....storminess is way more up in the air. Average highs here start at 40F on the 1st...45F on the 15th...and 53F on the 31st. Lol Tigers play the Royals on the 31st. It has to start warming up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yeah I was too lazy too check what the anomalies were last March in lower MI, but I figured close to what we had. Considering that a deeper snowpack has been maintained in lower MI and parts of OH than in parts of northeast IL including Chicago, I agree that those areas are at least as likely to have a March as cold as last year. The precipitation and snow part of the puzzle is tougher but I think there will be a decent baroclinic zone to work with. Also with snow cover likely hanging on into at least a portion of April in the northern Plains, could set up for a better severe weather pattern down the road. Sent from my SCH-I535 I was looking back at the March thread from last year, and you had some great analysis in the last week of February...about what might be in store for March 2013. Just a tip of the cap from me to you. Here's the March 2013 temp departures map. A fairly impressive month for cold. It was of course very snowy for some too. If LAF could repeat that...we'd break 80" for the season. Not counting on that of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I do think it will be a bit colder than last year here. Could actually be significantly colder depending how the first week shakes out. We could easily have -15 to as low as -20 departure for the first week of March. That is a deep hole to climb out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Front loaded, middle loaded and back loaded winter FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Front loaded, middle loaded and back loaded winter FTW. Now if we could just get that to happen every year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This looks fun. 2:24 12z gfs march 2-4 snow.gif It's had that storm for several runs now, just differing on how far north the good snows get. The 6z run was great for here next ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It's had that storm for several runs now, just differing on how far north the good snows get. The 6z run was great for here next ten days. Good enough ensemble agreement that things may turning active at the start of March. Hope so anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This looks fun. 2:24 12z gfs march 2-4 snow.gif That would be vomit worthy to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 That would be vomit worthy to be sure. I'm seeing 5.9" in your future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This looks fun. 2:24 12z gfs march 2-4 snow.gif Might as well post the 384hr map if your going to do that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This looks fun. 2:24 12z gfs march 2-4 snow.gif :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I'm seeing 5.9" in your future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Might as well post the 384hr map if your going to do that! :weenie: Inside truncation. That's why I only one-bunned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Sorry Geos: Its been dark blue over WI for almost 2 weeks now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Sorry Geos: Its been dark blue over WI for almost 2 weeks now... Thing of it is, it does not tell you what the departures are. -5° departure wouldn't be all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This looks fun. 2:24 12z gfs march 2-4 snow.gif Euro also equally as fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Thing of it is, it does not tell you what the departures are. -5° departure wouldn't be all that bad. Or it could be 20F below normal like this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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