Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Numerous weak disturbances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 the wed piece if vaguely interesting but that's about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks like a potentially moderate snowfall for the 24th-25th period across IA/IL. GFS showing 6 inches in IA with 3-5 across most of IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Predicted snowfall total from all these northern stream disturbances, clippers, waves, lows, troughs, vorts, pieces of energy, and systems: 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Predicted snowfall total from all these northern stream disturbances, clippers, waves, lows, troughs, vorts, pieces of energy, and systems: 0.6" Crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Skilling talking up the RPM model and "several inches of snow" for tonight/tomorrow morning. HRRR is the only model that shows it, with 1-3" across N. IA and S. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 LOT... BIGGEST CONCERN IS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE HIGHPLAINS RESULTING IN BETTER LOOKING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WESTERNSOUTH DAKOTA. GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER WAVEREMAINS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND ALSO WITHPATH IT TAKES...BUT FELT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INDICATE APROB30 FOR -SN FROM ABOUT MID SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY.SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ENABLE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IFSNOW DOES FALL...MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. WOULD EXPECTMVFR CIG/VSBY WITH THE SNOW AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBY WITHANY HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THIS POTENTIALFOR LIGHT SNOW FOR 03Z UPDATE AND MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BY THENBASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THEWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 0z NAM and RGEM both have somewhere around 0.30-0.40" of rain to snow for LAF tomorrow night. Okey dokey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Predicted snowfall total from all these northern stream disturbances, clippers, waves, lows, troughs, vorts, pieces of energy, and systems: 0.6" We haven't seen a snowy March in six years so we're due. Not holding my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Skilling's call of "several" inches seems very, very bullish given the lack of support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 We haven't seen a snowy March in six years so we're due. Not holding my breath though. Not sure how you define "snowy" but March 2011 was above normal. And I have some hope for that storm around March 3rd or 4th. But this NW flow stuff is going to work out as well for us as it did back in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 0z NAM and RGEM both have somewhere around 0.30-0.40" of rain to snow for LAF tomorrow night. Okey dokey... GFS looks decent as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Latest models have been hinting at a weak wave Saturday evening/Sunday Morning passing through NW Ohio dropping some snow. It looks to stay JUST to our south, but it could be a sneaky one, mainly for michsnowfreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Detroit snow magnet at it again. Completely unexpected but impressive radar right now. Some decent convective instability is in place too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 DTW reporting light snow with a 43 MPH wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 DTW reporting light snow with a 43 MPH wind gust. I got down to 2 1/2SM before bouncing back up. I am now without snow and at 10SM, quite surprising as I wasn't expecting that batch of precip to get this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I got down to 2 1/2SM before bouncing back up. I am now without snow and at 10SM, quite surprising as I wasn't expecting that batch of precip to get this far north. The cells are hauling ass. Got the same thing on this side of town with two renegade cells. Probably would see blizzard conditions with these if they slow down or organize just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The cells are hauling ass. Got the same thing on this side of town with two renegade cells. Probably would see blizzard conditions with these if they slow down or organize just a bit. Yeah, there were huge dendrites falling in the cell I had. Even though it was 35 it was all snow and coming down at a good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Nice to see some flakes again but not liking the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 And of course the 12z NAM changes its mind on tonight's/overnight little deal. Really skinny band, and not as heavy as the 0z run. And may or may not graze here to the south now. Guess we'll wait to see what happens...if anything happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 And of course the 12z NAM changes its mind on tonight's/overnight little deal. Really skinny band, and not as heavy as the 0z run. And may or may not graze here to the south now. Guess we'll wait to see what happens...if anything happens. 12z GFS and RGEM a little more bullish/broader. Of course in what form is up debate. GFS and NAM more wintry, RGEM pretty much all rain for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sorry for posting so much about this pretty small event, but it's kinda interesting. And I'm bored. 12z 4km NAM has a nice gradient in Tippecanoe county with QPF. Nothing in the northern part to 0.25"+ in the southern parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 And of course the 12z NAM changes its mind on tonight's/overnight little deal. Really skinny band, and not as heavy as the 0z run. And may or may not graze here to the south now. Guess we'll wait to see what happens...if anything happens. I really don't know what to expect with this one. I think we'll get some snow to whiten things up but how much? I will say this sort of reminds me of that weenie band a few weeks ago so there could be a surprise somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I really don't know what to expect with this one. I think we'll get some snow to whiten things up but how much? I will say this sort of reminds me of that weenie band a few weeks ago so there could be a surprise somewhere. I haven't the slightest idea either. But yep, I did think of that event too, with some similarities. I guess we'll see later what happens. Hope it's a nice "surprise". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I haven't the slightest idea either. But yep, I did think of that event too, with some similarities. I guess we'll see later what happens. Hope it's a nice "surprise". Hi-res models are bullish, and if the heavy band does pan out it looks like it could affect some of the same areas that got in on it last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Hi-res models are bullish, and if the heavy band does pan out it looks like it could affect some of the same areas that got in on it last time. Yeah, kinda looks like it. Maybe Frankfort will eclipse 80" for the season with this one. Of course, needs to fall as 90% snow. Torching out there today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 IND aviation update spells it out quite well. Might be interesting...might not be. ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SITES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHTHROUGH THE SITES AS A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW ISLOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KLAF WITH A BAND OF SNOW SETTING UPSOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH. MOS GUIDANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEPICKING UP ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT MODELS ESPECIALLY SHORT RANGE ONESARE. DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE BAND SETS UP KLAF COULD SEE A FEWHOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVERIF THE BAND SETS UP TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE SITE ONLY LIGHTSNOW EXPECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITHPREVAILING MVFR AND TEMPO IN A FEW HOURS OF IFR. THINK ONSET OFPRECIP AT KLAF COULD BE RAIN BUT THINK THIS WILL BE VERY SHORTLIVEDAS EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD GET THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING RATHERQUICKLY.FOR THE OTHER SITES...HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH OF THE SNOW BANDWILL REMAIN BY THE TIME IT MOVES SOUTH ENOUGH TO REACH THEM. WILL GOWITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW AT KHUFAND KIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP KBMG VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT KHUF AND KIND BUT AGAIN WITHSOME DRY AIR IN THE SOUNDINGS THINK EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD BRINGCHANGEOVER FAIRLY QUICKLY SO MAY NOT INCLUDE ANY RAIN IN THEFORECAST. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THEFRONT MOVING THROUGH VERY SLOWLY BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 8KTS THROUGHOUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 New IND zones have Frankfort and Kokomo as the jackpots in central Indiana...calling for 2-3" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Was wondering if the nice looking band just to the north of LAF is producing anything...and apparently it is, as GGP (Logansport) is now reporting light snow. Skies to the north of here look dark...almost like spring with t'storms. Boring old partly sunny here. So close, so far away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Was wondering if the nice looking band just to the north of LAF is producing anything...and apparently it is, as GGP (Logansport) is now reporting light snow. Skies to the north of here look dark...almost like spring with t'storms. Boring old partly sunny here. So close, so far away... Screen Shot 2014-02-22 at 4.41.49 PM.png You know anyone in southern Benton county? We're trying to get some reports from that area. Based off radar would think it's coming down pretty good there. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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