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2/26/2014 Potential Snowstorm


NEG NAO

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You look at the setup on days 5-6 on the 18z GFS and you say to yourself, if only we had a bit more energy to work with something really nice could be cooking up. You have a monster PNA ridge stretching all the way up into far NW Canada with the PV centered to the north of the lakes and elongated from north to south. What a gorgeous pattern. The 18z GFS btw shows inverted trough potential as the coastal passes well offshore. Potential for another nickel and dime event. 

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GFS is out of its deadly range "".  focus on the EURO and see if the PV dropping as far south as it shows is realistic for march.  I dont know, maybe it is.  Just a thought.

The PV has been over Canada for nearly the entire winter. We should avoid the core of the cold air, but then again, that's exactly where you want to be for steady storm threats.

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You have to love all that gulf moisture bubbling up around Day 5-6 and the beautiful PNA pattern. Models are showing the PV positioned a bit further north than they've shown a couple of days ago, which is great is you want snow threats. 

 

I honestly haven't seen the pattern look this good all winter when it comes to getting a big storm. The only thing is that any major storm will probably move at a good pace due to a lack of a true block slowing things down but one could easily see a widespread MECS with tons of moisture overriding very cold air. 

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lol the polar vortex is not enough for you?

that polar vortex is what is helping to suppress the system on the GFS - rather have the 1030+ HP up there to our north preferably with a negative nao and strong 50/50 then the storm attacks the HP riding up the coast - the 6Z shows basically what the 0Z did

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

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Bodes well for slowing the pattern down and for large scale large systems  but you always run the risk of suppression . 

That`s the deal you make .  IMO this will prob end up more Neutral and as the PV retrogrades and pulses i like the East coast for deepening Wed and  next weekend . 

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Bodes well for slowing the pattern down and for large scale large systems  but you always run the risk of suppression . 

That`s the deal you make .  IMO this will prob end up more Neutral and as the PV retrogrades and pulses i like the East coast for deepening Wed and  next weekend . 

post-7472-0-15195100-1392992921_thumb.pn

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GFS is another 4-6"+, more for eastern and southern areas as the coastal passes well offshore. So we have a 2-4 or 3-5 event for Tuesday into Tuesday night and then a secondary 4-6"+ for Wednesday into Thursday.

Wow.  But very different from other models...I don't think anyone else has the Tue or Wed events

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850`s are minus 8 - 12  BL  are the 20`s Tues 

850`s are minuis 12 - 14  BL  mid 20`s  Wed , Both appear very COLD , Wed looks to phase  . That`s the bigger one here 

 

Wed should just ride the arctic front which should be closer to the coast IMO . 

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GFS is another 4-6"+, more for eastern and southern areas as the coastal passes well offshore. So we have a 2-4 or 3-5 event for Tuesday into Tuesday night and then a secondary 4-6"+ for Wednesday into Thursday.

You werent kidding! Along there has been too much focus on the possible BECS on Sat. and most of us could see Tues had potential but human nature is greedy. Whoi knows maybe Tues can surprise us with MECS and Sat. gets crushed to the south. exciting times 2 be sure.

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Awfully quiet considering what the GFS just did.  This storm reminds me of some of those that snuck up on is --- but this isn't so sneaky anymore!

I think people are taking a breather from the previous month! Especially as its warm, foggy and rainy now.  

 

What % would you all give for KNYC to beat its all time snow record? 19" doesn't seem toooo out of reach (in a normal winter it would) but who knows.

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