NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Various models have shown this potential snowstorm for a few days12Z GFS shows it againhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 A nice redeveloping clipper, could see 4-8" with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 A thread about a possible storm that happened almost a year ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 thanks A thread about a possible storm that happened almost a year ago? thanks yanksfan I changed the year - yes now I realize its 2014 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You look at the setup on days 5-6 on the 18z GFS and you say to yourself, if only we had a bit more energy to work with something really nice could be cooking up. You have a monster PNA ridge stretching all the way up into far NW Canada with the PV centered to the north of the lakes and elongated from north to south. What a gorgeous pattern. The 18z GFS btw shows inverted trough potential as the coastal passes well offshore. Potential for another nickel and dime event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 GFS is out of its deadly range "". focus on the EURO and see if the PV dropping as far south as it shows is realistic for march. I dont know, maybe it is. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 GFS is out of its deadly range "". focus on the EURO and see if the PV dropping as far south as it shows is realistic for march. I dont know, maybe it is. Just a thought. The PV has been over Canada for nearly the entire winter. We should avoid the core of the cold air, but then again, that's exactly where you want to be for steady storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You have to love all that gulf moisture bubbling up around Day 5-6 and the beautiful PNA pattern. Models are showing the PV positioned a bit further north than they've shown a couple of days ago, which is great is you want snow threats. I honestly haven't seen the pattern look this good all winter when it comes to getting a big storm. The only thing is that any major storm will probably move at a good pace due to a lack of a true block slowing things down but one could easily see a widespread MECS with tons of moisture overriding very cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nice hit on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nice hit on the gfs one important ingredient missing - a strong high to the north on the 0ZGFS not sure if this solution is accurate http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 one important ingredient missing - a strong high to the north on the 0ZGFS not sure if this solution is accurate http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png lol the polar vortex is not enough for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 lol the polar vortex is not enough for you? that polar vortex is what is helping to suppress the system on the GFS - rather have the 1030+ HP up there to our north preferably with a negative nao and strong 50/50 then the storm attacks the HP riding up the coast - the 6Z shows basically what the 0Z did http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Bodes well for slowing the pattern down and for large scale large systems but you always run the risk of suppression . That`s the deal you make . IMO this will prob end up more Neutral and as the PV retrogrades and pulses i like the East coast for deepening Wed and next weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Bodes well for slowing the pattern down and for large scale large systems but you always run the risk of suppression . That`s the deal you make . IMO this will prob end up more Neutral and as the PV retrogrades and pulses i like the East coast for deepening Wed and next weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 If the 12z GFS is correct it will be snowing moderately to heavily here on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 12z GFS is easily 2-4"+ for most of the region. 3-5" in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Now the GFS is really blowing up the system coming in right on its heals. Coastal just south of the Benchmark at hour 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Awfully quiet considering what the GFS just did. This storm reminds me of some of those that snuck up on is --- but this isn't so sneaky anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS is another 4-6"+, more for eastern and southern areas as the coastal passes well offshore. So we have a 2-4 or 3-5 event for Tuesday into Tuesday night and then a secondary 4-6"+ for Wednesday into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 12z GFS, arctic front event, temps crash during storm, in the afternoon hours too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS is another 4-6"+, more for eastern and southern areas as the coastal passes well offshore. So we have a 2-4 or 3-5 event for Tuesday into Tuesday night and then a secondary 4-6"+ for Wednesday into Thursday. Wow. But very different from other models...I don't think anyone else has the Tue or Wed events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 850`s are minus 8 - 12 BL are the 20`s Tues 850`s are minuis 12 - 14 BL mid 20`s Wed , Both appear very COLD , Wed looks to phase . That`s the bigger one here Wed should just ride the arctic front which should be closer to the coast IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The fact that the GFS is seeing this and it is a northern stream event is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This is why it's nice to be close to the PV, the secondary system is just a piece of the energy rotating around it blowing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Here was the 6z DGEX for next week. GFS was close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Here was the 6z DGEX for next week. GFS was close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS is another 4-6"+, more for eastern and southern areas as the coastal passes well offshore. So we have a 2-4 or 3-5 event for Tuesday into Tuesday night and then a secondary 4-6"+ for Wednesday into Thursday. You werent kidding! Along there has been too much focus on the possible BECS on Sat. and most of us could see Tues had potential but human nature is greedy. Whoi knows maybe Tues can surprise us with MECS and Sat. gets crushed to the south. exciting times 2 be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Awfully quiet considering what the GFS just did. This storm reminds me of some of those that snuck up on is --- but this isn't so sneaky anymore! I think people are taking a breather from the previous month! Especially as its warm, foggy and rainy now. What % would you all give for KNYC to beat its all time snow record? 19" doesn't seem toooo out of reach (in a normal winter it would) but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 When you toggle through, great lift all the way to Buffalo .So I think the center will be closer in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This threat has more legs, there's a lot of energy and we have to see if it can really consolidate and produce a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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