Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Take 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hoosier needs to lock the other 2....this is getting confusing, we now have 3 active versions of the same thread. I was trying to find that AFD from DVN about the coming dramatic torchy pattern change. I need a laugh today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hoosier needs to lock the other 2....this is getting confusing, we now have 3 active versions of the same thread. I was trying to find that AFD from DVN about the coming dramatic torchy pattern change. I need a laugh today. MID-60'S! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hoosier needs to lock the other 2....this is getting confusing, we now have 3 active versions of the same thread.The other two? You mean one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Hoosier needs to lock the other 2....this is getting confusing, we now have 3 active versions of the same thread. I was trying to find that AFD from DVN about the coming dramatic torchy pattern change. I need a laugh today. This one? Believe it was posted on the 5th. MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGEST MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COAST WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THE MAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST I HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARS OF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE AND SHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKS AND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LAST WINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED IN TELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIME CHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WE ARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROM PAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEE IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAY CONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING IN TELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGH PW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 MID-60'S! pretty sure they weren't discussing the potential of a two day warm up. As JB says, and island of warmth in a sea of cold The other two? You mean one. yep, I mistook the banter thread title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 This one? Believe it was posted on the 5th. MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGEST MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COAST WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THE MAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST I HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARS OF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE AND SHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKS AND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LAST WINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED IN TELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIME CHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WE ARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROM PAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEE IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAY CONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING IN TELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGH PW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 pretty sure they weren't discussing the potential of a two day warm up. As JB says, and island of warmth in a sea of cold yep, I mistook the banter thread title. Exactly. His arrogance about it all was kinda funny too with such a bold statement, although if he turned out to be right that would have deserved some major kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 That DVN disco was much too bullish with warmth in this region but it's basically right about what happened out west...it has turned much wetter there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 No talk of the insane record cold at 10 days of the GFS? 850s of -30 C get as far south as MSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 ECMWF agrees so does the GGEM which has -35 to -40 2M temps in MN at HR 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 No talk of the insane record cold at 10 days of the GFS? 850s of -30 C get as far south as MSN. Too depressing to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 No talk of the insane record cold at 10 days of the GFS? 850s of -30 C get as far south as MSN. PV of doom, part III? 0z GEFS mean is impressive at a relatively long lead. Starting this weekend, it's BN through day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 this is starting to get depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 this is starting to get depressing Truly, I find it pretty fascinating. Remarkable how the cold has been persistent since November, with some brief warmth mixed in at times. Guess it's just been awhile seen we've seen something like this... Alas, time for all you warm peeps to wagons it W/SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Truly, I find it pretty fascinating. Remarkable how the cold has been persistent since November, with some brief warmth mixed in at times. Guess it's just been awhile seen we've seen something like this... Alas, time for all you warm peeps to wagons it W/SW. patterns getting stuck on repeat has been the rule of the land the past few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 PV of doom, part III? 0z GEFS mean is impressive at a relatively long lead. Starting this weekend, it's BN through day 15. 2:19 0z gefs 228 2m td.png Apparently late February 1980 saw a similar arctic outbreak. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Truly, I find it pretty fascinating. Remarkable how the cold has been persistent since November, with some brief warmth mixed in at times. Guess it's just been awhile seen we've seen something like this... Alas, time for all you warm peeps to wagons it W/SW. I agree, from a weather standpoint it is amazing to watch. I wonder though, the snow pack has been in this area for quite a while, with the loss of it upon us, and by Friday morning especially, do you think these cold anomalies will be tempered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Truly, I find it pretty fascinating. Remarkable how the cold has been persistent since November, with some brief warmth mixed in at times. Guess it's just been awhile seen we've seen something like this... Alas, time for all you warm peeps to wagons it W/SW. I told a friend of mine who is ready for summer.. Wouldn't it suck if we ended up with a cold summer this year? She was none to pleased with that comment of mine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I agree, from a weather standpoint it is amazing to watch. I wonder though, the snow pack has been in this area for quite a while, with the loss of it upon us, and by Friday morning especially, do you think these cold anomalies will be tempered? Sure...but I think we stand a good chance at laying down some new snow cover before the next big shot of cold hits. Hopefully anyways. I told a friend of mine who is ready for summer.. Wouldn't it suck if we ended up with a cold summer this year? She was none to pleased with that comment of mine.. You know what I root for with summer. Most of my friends and golf people think winter is over. 60/70's and sunshine the rest of the way through April, which started yesterday apparently. I bet I know where they got that idea from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Sure...but I think we stand a good chance at laying down some new snow cover before the next big shot of cold hits. Hopefully anyways. You know what I root for with summer. Most of my friends and golf people think winter is over. 60/70's and sunshine the rest of the way through April, which started yesterday apparently. I bet I know where they got that idea from... Well, that's a cruel joke to play on them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 ^Brutal. If you took the dates off it looks like something straight out of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Jesus, that would break a lot of 850 record low temperatures if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 ^Brutal. If you took the dates off it looks like something straight out of January. That's what I was thinking. Amazing. And it has ensemble support, well maybe not that cold...but cold enough. that's hawt The moans and groans of the weary may be at a fever pitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 that's hawt That's disgusting unless a storm accompanies it. I may have to revise my winter grade to an F- if that happens with no added snow (j/k). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 That's disgusting unless a storm accompanies it. I may have to revise my winter grade to an F- if that happens with no added snow (j/k). if we can't break snow records might as well shoot for cold.. sun will feel a lot better anyways than back 3 weeks ago.. doubt geos will even have to wear a coat home from work with the sizzling sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The moans and groans of the weary may be at a fever pitch. I do sympathy some for those on this board that cry for spring come mid-feb like clock work, but not for the general public and news outlets that buffets up the torches in winter and pukes it down your throat over and over. I hope this rubber band don't break until april 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I'm really aiming for a double digit negative departure month, this could end up being the opposite to March 2012. Lansing is sitting at -10.9 March 2012 was +14.2 We will be putting up double digit negative departure days from Sunday through the end of the month... -14.2 is going to be almost impossible, but its in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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