snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Here's a residual thread for the minor front end icing/back end slush that may occur with the two storms late next week/next weekend. Of course, the 6z GFS broke continuity and is suggesting something not so minor. A further south solution does have support from the GGEM and EURO ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The 6z GFS has the look of a significant icing event for a large portion of S On. A baffin island block manages to form in advance of the system which forced the track further south. High over quebec is pretty strong and help's usher in an ENE flow, which although not an "ideal" setup, looks to do damage with an almost frozen lake ontario. Precip goes over to snow by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Here's a residual thread for the minor front end icing/back end slush that make occur with the two storms late next week/next weekend. Of course, the 6z GFS broke continuity and is suggesting something not so minor. A further south solution does have support from the GGEM and EURO ensembles. Interesting. Not sure that solution has any credence, but talk about heartbreak for Geos and those looking forward to ridding ourselves of snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like the possibility exists that the frozen lakes and deep snowpack may save my region from a significant torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 The 6z GFS has the look of a significant icing event for a large portion of S On. A baffin island block manages to form in advance of the system which forced the track further south. High over quebec is pretty strong and help's usher in an ENE flow, which although not an "ideal" setup, looks to do damage with an almost frozen lake ontario. Precip goes over to snow by the end. In addition to the blocking feature you've mentioned, because the 2nd s/w follows in such close proximity to the 1st one, the SE ridge isn't really allowed to rebuild. If the 2nd s/w slows down and is vigorous enough then it could still end up quite warm but we at least have a roadmap on how to avoid that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Virtually no GEFS support for the OP GFS with regard to the second storm. Either snow or suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Northern Illinois looks interesting Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Northern Illinois looks interesting Thursday morning. Decent amount of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Decent amount of rain. Temps look borderline though. Could be ice at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Temps look borderline though. Could be ice at onset. Nice LLJ/WAA and heavy precip. All rain easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Temps look borderline though. Could be ice at onset. Cold ground issues too, again, maybe? Or do surface temps warm quickly? Sorry, I haven't looked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nice LLJ/WAA and heavy precip. All rain easily. You better tell LOT then. They have rain and freezing rain for Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Cold ground issues too, again, maybe? Or do surface temps warm quickly? Sorry, I haven't looked... You'd think it wouldn't be as big a deal as it was in the past given that temps aren't really frigid in the days right before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 00z GFS/GEM/Euro now showing a few inches of snow possible from Iowa up into Wisconsin on the backside of Thursday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 6z GFS ensembles pretty bullish on a wound up system for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM continues to show front end thumpish type snows before quick warm up then low passes overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18z NAM has 17 inches for DLL 140220/1300Z 67 13008KT 31.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.04 0| 0|100140220/1400Z 68 13006KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.049 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.09 0| 0|100140220/1500Z 69 10006KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.15 0| 0|100140220/1600Z 70 07005KT 32.1F SNZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.044 0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 0.20 13| 44| 44140220/1700Z 71 04006KT 32.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 11:1| 0.6|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 0.26 100| 0| 0140220/1800Z 72 02010KT 31.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 10:1| 1.5|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 0.34 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140220/1900Z 73 01012KT 31.4F SNOW 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.105 10:1| 2.6|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 0.45 100| 0| 0140220/2000Z 74 36011KT 31.0F SNOW 15:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154 12:1| 5.0|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 0.60 100| 0| 0140220/2100Z 75 36013KT 30.8F SNOW 12:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.238 12:1| 7.9|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 0.84 100| 0| 0140220/2200Z 76 34013KT 31.0F SNOW 11:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149 12:1| 9.5|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 0.99 100| 0| 0140220/2300Z 77 32016KT 31.2F SNOW 20:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 13:1| 12.3|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 1.13 100| 0| 0140221/0000Z 78 31022KT 31.4F SNOW 22:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 14:1| 15.5|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 1.27 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140221/0100Z 79 31023KT 31.5F SNOW 10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 14:1| 16.4|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 1.37 100| 0| 0140221/0200Z 80 30022KT 31.7F SNOW 19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 14:1| 16.9|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 1.39 100| 0| 0140221/0300Z 81 29023KT 31.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 14:1| 17.0|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 1.40 100| 0| 0140221/0400Z 82 29025KT 28.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 14:1| 17.0|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 1.40 0| 0| 0140221/0500Z 83 29024KT 24.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 14:1| 17.0|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 1.40 0| 0| 0140221/0600Z 84 29023KT 20.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 14:1| 17.0|| 0.05|| 0.10|| 1.40 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 18z NAM is da lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 18z GFS Ensembles took a significant step SE with this Thursday storm, hopefully it's not just noise, would be pretty sweet to get another light to moderate snow event a few days after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 would be lol if we reel this one in again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 DLL is really due.. I miss his weenie pics from yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 would be lol if we reel this one in again Joe and I agree we need to be at 75" by march 1st to have a real legit shot at record. We need this one to trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Joe and I agree we need to be at 75" by march 1st to have a real legit shot at record. We need this one to trend south. what is ORD at now? last i checked we aren't even going to get close without another monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 what is ORD at now? last i checked we aren't even going to get close without another monster. 66" I believe. Never know if Thursday and this weekend are both hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 66" I believe. Never know if Thursday and this weekend are both hits Actually 67.6", assuming 4.7" is the final total from today's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 those few inches are going to come back to bite ORD, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 those few inches are going to come back to bite ORD, huh Are you talking about the under measuring during the big dog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Are you talking about the under measuring during the big dog? yep, if we fall an inch short or something it will be pretty funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 yep, if we fall an inch short or something it will be pretty funny Then Milwaukee and Chicago will both be considered screwed out of potential records. Ask Bowme anyway, he's pretty certain MKE had well over 100" of snow in 07-08, and it makes sense given the 120" totals that were sporadically recorded in the north and west suburbs that winter that they might have lowballed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 0z NAM take the low over green bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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