Hoosier Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It looks like a period of much warmer temperatures is on the horizon, which will lead to considerable melting snow. There's a potential for very warm readings in some areas, which would lead to rapid snow melt should that transpire. Exactly how this plays out is up in the air but at the very least it looks like a substantial flooding threat due to melting snow, with a threat of heavy rain and maybe even a severe threat as was mentioned in the med/long range thread (can start a thread for that later). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ice jams may exacerbate the problem. Lots of thick ice on area rivers with huge broken chunks frozen together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 824 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014 ..RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AFTER FEBRUARY 19 AND EXTEND INTO EARLY MARCH. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW SERIOUS THE FLOODING WILL BECOME. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL PLAY INTO THE FLOOD RISK. AS OF FEBRUARY 13... SNOW DEPTH IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA RANGED FROM 4 TO MORE THAN 12 INCHES. THIS SNOW CONTAINED FROM 1 TO MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT. ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A THAW WILL BEGIN THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 16 AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY. INCREASED RUNOFF WILL OCCUR AS THE SNOW MELTS BECAUSE THE GROUND WILL STILL BE FROZEN. THIS MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...BASEMENTS...SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER RISES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AFTER FEBRUARY 19. SHOULD A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT OCCUR BETWEEN FEBRUARY 19 AND FEBRUARY 24 ... THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING WOULD GREATLY INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BREAK UP AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THICK RIVER ICE COULD CAUSE ICE JAMS AND LOCALIZED SEVERE FLOODING. LOCAL CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER AND RIVER CONDITIONS DAILY THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY. LOCAL FLOOD PREVENTATIVE MEASURES SHOULD BEGIN AS SOON AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO MELT. FUTURE FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME...NOT A CERTAINTY. FOR DETAILED FLOOD INFORMATION GO TO WEATHER.GOV/IND ON THE WEB. FROM THE BLUE MENU BAR ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE...CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not going to be pretty, if we get heavy rainfall. Shades of the 2007-08 winter floods? Those were bad for some locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Been watching this potential for the last week; call me a flood weenie but I'm a hydrologist by study and trade (sorta) and this sort of set up gets me going. Lots of factors lining up this year. Thick ice on rivers (going to need a good torch to take advantage of this, given how thick ice is), ground frozen solid (likely deeper than most recent years), solid snowpack to work with (10-18" around here). Just need to meteorological conditions to line up. Heavy rain will certainly be the kicker for areas that get it. Some of the systems that have been showing up on the models look pretty deep and could carry a lot of moisture north. Not sure if the warm up with extend far enough north to seriously affect us here in ON, but areas further south are certainly under the gun, particularly in the earlier stages of this pattern change. Ontario may not get hit too badly until we get into March. 6-10 day temp and precip outlook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hydrologic conditions interest me quite a bit too, especially with my educational background and all. It doesn't take much rain with mild conditions to turn things ugly along waterways and low lying areas. The ground is solid! I can't remember after what Christmas it was. There was about 12-14" of dense snow on the ground, the next day it rained and made it into the 50s and it wiped out all the snow pretty much. There was water in places I've never seen it before in my neighborhood. All due to the frozen ground not allowing any infiltration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The frost layer is much deeper than the usual one foot for this time of year and location. As has been mentioned the potential is high for small stream and then large stem flooding if the storm the GFS and Euro forecasts comes to fruition late next week. Water will have no where to go except to run off. IWX has also posted a hydrologic outlook of concern until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSonic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We could be looking at a the potential thunderstorm activity (maybe severe) over the Ohio Valley. Well taking a look at the 12z GFS a storm like that would be a significant severe weather maker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not going to be pretty, if we get heavy rainfall. Shades of the 2007-08 winter floods? Those were bad for some locales. That might be a decent comparison but can't remember what the ice jams were like back then. This is almost a worst case scenario if we get rounds of heavy rain. Then after that it looks like we go back into a colder pattern...frozen floodwaters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is almost a worst case scenario if we get rounds of heavy rain. Then after that it looks like we go back into a colder pattern...frozen floodwaters? I thought about that scenario earlier. That would be really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I thought about that scenario earlier. That would be really bad. First things first, the Monday system looks like it could add a widespread .25-.5" of liquid into the snowpack here and upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 First things first, the Monday system looks like it could add a widespread .25-.5" of liquid into the snowpack here and upstream. Wide ranges on these maps, but we get the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A heavy rain situation for Northern IL and Southern MI would have the potential to be catastrophic, not only are the rivers and ground frozen solid, but the lakes are as well. There would literally be no where for the water to go. SW Lower Michigan would really be in trouble considering their snow pack holds about 5-6" of liquid in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I thought about that scenario earlier. That would be really bad. Didn't White County experience flooding then frozen flood waters during that scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 glad i'm flood proof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Pic from January 2008 flood in White county IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just looking around at the snow pack we have....tough to imagine where its all gonna go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 There isn't anywhere for the water to go, its really amazing to drive in the rural areas and see ditches that are 20 feet deep filled to the top with snow. Roadside ditches have feet of hard compacted piled snow in them from repeated plowing. The small rivers around here have ice in spots that usually never freeze, the mouths have between 20-30 inches of ice on them. I've been ice fishing on spots that are nearly 30 inches thick that normally are a foot. a rapid thaw/rain would be a disaster. A town just Sw of here is planning on using dynamite to blow up river ice on or around the 20th in hopes it will help with flooding when it finally does warm up. The problem is, even if you blow the 2 feet of river ice up, where does the chunks/rements go when the mouth flows into saginaw bay, which is froze across to nearly 3 feet in spots and they are driving trucks 12 miles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Speaking of frost. 55 to 75 inches here. Couldnt believe it when I heard that Towns at having people run water 24 7 water linea are freezing all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Didn't White County experience flooding then frozen flood waters during that scenario? I'm not sure to be honest. Pic from January 2008 flood in White county IN LOT write ups on the Jan 2008 flooding. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=pontiacfloodingjan2008 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=13432&source=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 With a forecast like this, northern IL is in for some hydrologic issues. Probably will be above freezing from midday Tuesday onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 00z GGEM unloads with precip for Monday. This would only heighten the problems when the melt comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 00z GGEM unloads with precip for Monday. This would only heighten the problems when the melt comes. GFS wasn't cheap on the QPF either, certainly not what you want to see looking down the barrel at a potential major flooding situation later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If the NAM, GGEM, and EURO are correct about having heavy precip in the lower lakes, there will be hydrologic issues for sure in the lower lakes next week. Could get crazy by what I'm seeing on the models. 12z EURO through late next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The full Hydrologic statement LOT just put out. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL330 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 /430 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014/...INCREASING FLOOD POTENTIAL BEGINNING NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK...THERISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS NORTHERNILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 INCHES. MOREIMPORTANTLY...THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK ISESTIMATED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTSCONCENTRATED MOSTLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE. INADDITION...FROST DEPTHS BELOW THE SNOWPACK RANGE FROM 12 TO 16INCHES. A DEEP FROST LAYER CAN INHIBIT THE INFILTRATION OFMELTWATER FROM SNOW AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF.BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALONE...RIVERS WILL LIKELYSTART RISING DUE TO SNOWMELT DURING THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF NEXTWEEK. THE SEVERITY AND TIMING OF FLOODING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ONTHE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT OCCUR DURING THE MELT PERIOD. HEAVYRAINFALL DURING THAT TIME WOULD INCREASE THE RATE OF RUNOFF ANDSUBSEQUENT FLOODING. IDEAL MELT CONDITIONS TO MINIMIZE THE DEGREEOF FLOODING WOULD INCLUDE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING MODERATELYABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.THIS WOULD HELP TO REGULATE THE RELEASE OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF INTOAREA STREAMS.ANOTHER MAJOR CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON RIVERS ACROSSTHE AREA. NWS CHICAGO ICE SPOTTERS REPORT MANY RIVERS HAVE 100PERCENT ICE COVER. AS THE RUNOFF BEGINS...FLOWS BENEATH THE ICECOVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WHICH WILL LIFT AND BREAK THE ICE. ASTHE ICE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE. ICE JAMS CANRESULT IN RAPID RISES OF WATER LEVELS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING INTHE VICINITY OF THE JAM.PERSONS LIVING ALONG RIVERS AND IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULDPREPARE NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RIVER FLOODING IN THE COMINGWEEKS. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SNOWMELTSITUATION. ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ORTEMPERATURES COULD AFFECT THE TIMING AND SEVERITY OF FLOODING.FOR DETAILED RIVER FORECAST AND FLOOD INFORMATION GO TOWEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO AND CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.$MORRIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Threat of mega torching seems to be waning but flooding threat still exists with melting snow and models indicating a potential axis of decent to heavy rain setting up somewhere. Question is exactly where that sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Threat of mega torching seems to be waning but flooding threat still exists with melting snow and models indicating a potential axis of decent to heavy rain setting up somewhere. Question is exactly where that sets up. All you need is convective rains to cause a problem and an extended period of above freezing temps. December 26-27th 2008 was a great example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 All you need is convective rains to cause a problem and an extended period of above freezing temps. December 26-27th 2008 was a great example of that. But December 27, 2008 saw temps soar into the 60s...that is an example of a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 But December 27, 2008 saw temps soar into the 60s...that is an example of a torch. 50s back here to west. 50s in February aren't so much of a torch compared to late December. Should say that's a great example of what the EURO was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 But December 27, 2008 saw temps soar into the 60s...that is an example of a torch. What was interesting about 12/27/08 is that the next day, we dropped back below freezing which proceeded into the Siberian Air Outbreak in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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