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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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All models, and the GFS in particular, have occasionally shown a persistent solution only to be wrong with the outcome.  It actually happens fairly frequently.  But unless the error impacts a particular region, and especially if the impact isn't significant in terms of sensible weather, most people don't notice.  You don't have to go far into the past for an example.  For at least 8 cycles leading up to yesterday, the GFS insisted that heavy snow would not make it west of the NY/MA border... or at least not much west of the Hudson River.  As it turned out, the heavy snow blasted 100 miles west of there... basically like the ECMWF had shown for 3 days (and the CMC/UK occasonally as well).

 

 

 

Not like this ... sorry, this is coming along with a certain uncompromising panache -- this is different. You are siting certain aspects of an overall picture; but this thing is the overall picture, too.

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Not like this ... sorry, this is coming along with a certain uncompromising panache -- this is different. You are siting certain aspects of an overall picture; but this thing is the overall picture, too.

I just think you are hyper focused on your backyard, which is understandable. 

 

The GFS was wrong for 8 runs leading up to yesterday.  Wrong in the whole picture, as you say.  Too far east at the surface and too flat at 500mb and 300mb.  I used QPF on the western periphery as an illustrative example because that's where we see the impact.  I think this seems different because it affects you.  The run up to yesterday didn't as much.

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Not like this ... sorry, this is coming along with a certain uncompromising panache -- this is different. You are siting certain aspects of an overall picture; but this thing is the overall picture, too.

Gfs thought the stinger was into a decent part if sne right up until the event started. It's consistently wrong quite often particularly when it's the most left on track. Doesn't mean it's wrong this time,

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You can see how the GFS is displacing the max frontogenesis (yellow) well NW of the H7 front (pink). I don't like it that far west, but it's close.

attachicon.gifGFS.jpg

Can I get a woody? that gives me one even being a little East, lol. Man the GEFS look pretty similar, is this a charlie Brown Lucy storm though? The Euro Ens were not far off from being nuclear too. wow close in nail biter.

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Holy crap, is there any interest in this thing:

 

 

Ginxyhighways1khowley4msg112469BowbrewerDigitymanwxsnisszoe456CTWeatherFreakMe NotumacriverI'd rather be skiingSouthCoastMAColonel BadgerMJHUB,RIsnowSpoons56JustinWXbutterfish55Bluefishskipsfenn1117Weenie RadarsnoincrHothJC in CTqetu89Bryancpick79HTFD WhalerHighlanderAerographerHinghamBosserfus,palarandaHoarfrostHubbCarverWX((((d-_- B))))coldfrontMatthew BeckerDmFog1187grithermonstersbos_wxpdm44wkdCHIPPENSHILLWhiteminsterChrisrotary12ORH_wxman,Cyclone-68moneypitmikeHazeyJSWeatherPick22elvisseaheroDanSnowManeduggsBenchmarkbuoywinterfreakklwMaineJayhawk,

 SnowGoose69mattb65Connecticut Appleman,PeabodyFloodcjp007esmangogmb6279Theo17Tann1973CTFarmergedolsonkevin1927EActonMassshorewx34,

 giventoflyariofTauntonBlizzard2013HinodePatrick-02540educate,Wx37marshcanes&neastersYankees29akbajm1220PolarVortexBoston-winter08SnowbeltbillmanTallguy001

 

Anyway, the ECM did get schooled by the GFS earlier in the season re the N-stream amplitude and timing.  So it's not exactly unprecedented.  It's just rarer.  Having just seen the GFS ensemble individual members, there a more like the operational GFS than like the Euro (in terms of cross model support).   Gosh that's a lot of weight. 

 

Edit:  duh, I just reviewed the 00z -- what a dumb ass; still, rumor has it the 12z is similar

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NCEP may have been taken over by James.  Fear the Gulf Stream.

 

MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

ACROSS MISSOURI, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK
WITH THEIR SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS
THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS.  WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS
CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST
WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE
GUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS SOLUTION APPEAR MOST PLAUSIBLE.
PLUS, WITH THE CYCLONE PATH NEARING THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY, A
STRONGER SOLUTION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING. 
THE
PREFERENCE IS FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND
POSSIBLE GULF STREAM INTERACTION.

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Interesting ...

 

MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

ACROSS MISSOURI, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK WITH THEIR SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE GUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS SOLUTION APPEAR MOST PLAUSIBLE. PLUS, WITH THE CYCLONE PATH NEARING THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY, A STRONGER SOLUTION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND POSSIBLE GULF STREAM INTERACTION.

 

It's a commodity for the NCEP diagnostic office to go with the GFS, but ... ah, I hate say, this seems to be a unique situation that the other guidance' are inherently having difficulties with.  

 

edit:  D'oh!  someone beat me to it -- 

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Interesting ...

 

MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

ACROSS MISSOURI, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK WITH THEIR SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE

GUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS SOLUTION APPEAR MOST PLAUSIBLE. PLUS, WITH THE CYCLONE PATH NEARING THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY, A STRONGER SOLUTION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND POSSIBLE GULF STREAM INTERACTION.

 

It's a commodity for the NCEP diagnostic office to go with the GFS, but ... ah, I hate say, this seems to be a unique situation that the other guidance' are inherently having difficulties with.  

 

A day late and a dollar short.

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