Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nice vort pass to our south indicated by the models. Per request by Ian we can move it here for discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nice precip here on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nice precip here on the NAM Image doesn't show since it's a paysite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Image doesn't show since it's a paysite! Fixed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Fixed! Oh my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I take it that's snow, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'd think its borderline for anyone in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Surface temps look to be very marginal based on a quick glance at the NAM 2m temp maps. Still...it's a good vort pass and it's not in the middle of the day so that's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 All snow for n of DCA it looks like, with a good vort pass rates could sustain though the QPF is distributed over a longer period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What time we look for kickoff on tomorrow's event? I should just be finishing up with shoveling today's beatdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z GFS has 0.25" for DC for the event tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z GFS has 0.25" for DC for the event tomorrow night It's been a nice run over run trend on the vort for the last 2-3 days. Near perfect pass on 12z gfs and slp popping sw of us. Could trend juicier on the nw side of slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z GFS has 0.25" for DC for the event tomorrow night Don't think the vort pass can be denied. Okay rates which is my only worry, but decent timing and snowpack around obviously. 2-4" BWI-DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's been a nice run over run trend on the vort for the last 2-3 days. Near perfect pass on 12z gfs and slp popping sw of us. Could trend juicier on the nw side of slp. Definitely agree, this one I like. It has a 'semblance to 1/21 and in a way 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is a northern vort - always worry about a north trend. As of now it keeps getting wetter, so that is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is a northern vort - always worry about a north trend. As of now it keeps getting wetter, so that is good. Don't worry about that too much. It started showing 2-3 days ago but it was a flattish vort with overhead pass. Since then it has done nothing but amplify. GFS is near perfect for a slp popping to our sw. I think this one can only get better. Heights to the north will easily force it to stay below us. And we're only 48 hours out. The vort is most likely a lock as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Don't worry about that too much. It started showing 2-3 days ago but it was a flattish vort with overhead pass. Since then it has done nothing but amplify. GFS is near perfect for a slp popping to our sw. I think this one can only get better. Heights to the north will easily force it to stay below us. And we're only 48 hours out. The vort is most likely a lock as is. Gotta agree. This thing has trended toward digging pretty good on each run the last 36 hours or so. I could see it getting a little wetter over the next day. Great vort pass at the right time of day. If we can get some rates it might be a nice nightcap to yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The Evolution kind of looks like the early January system to me that we received 4-10 inches on...obviously not as cold, or more moisture right now though but I could see it trending a little juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The track is perfect. Lets see how juiced it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 euro starts around midnight end around 9am, around 0.15-0.20 falls for DC, maybe a tad more western burbs...so probably a 2" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 euro starts around midnight end around 9am, around 0.15-0.20 falls for DC, maybe a tad more western burbs...so probably a 2" event It's pretty energetic @ h5 on the run. It will prob trend wetter. Nothing big or anything. 3-5" would be best cast scenario imo. 1-2" very possible as well. It's a northern stream vort so favoring the gfs/nam might be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Max potential with this one may be something like Feb. 2nd 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z NAM is pretty impressive with the H5 map so far on this...i'm at 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z NAM is pretty impressive with the H5 map so far on this...i'm at 30 hours Yea, @ 36 (1am sat) it looks pretty awesome. Could be a quick dynamic punch. Sure seems to be trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yall seeing this? Damn rainy ULL is stealing tomorrow's attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 There could be some mixing initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow, inside of 48 hours too. Nam @ h5 is perfect for a MA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 ~.45" for DC some of that perhaps lost to initial mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's almost warning criteria Little .6 bullseye just south of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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