TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR absolutely nailed the forecast earlier this morning, was the only model showing 10"+ here and it was correct. Picked up on gradient, cooling dynamics, changeover time, the whole 9 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 100% agree. A lot of people are hugging the HRRR because it shows them getting the most snow. I don't buy it either. Alot of people may be saying HRRRs your daddy? by the end of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 More than anything, I think what we're seeing is that this is a nowcasting event. Every run of all the Hi-Res models is shifting back and forth by 20-30 miles. Someone is going to get epic snows, but everyone will get at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 20z HRRR has more snow once again throughout Northern NJ .. now showing total snow amounts of around 1 foot from Central NJ through Newark and northward. I love the HRRR and as a short term model it has become extremely impressive...but I just have a really hard time believing this is possible. Not only does it seem too far east with the heaviest banding, but I simply think it will be hard to achieve those totals despite the convective nature of the precipitation. True, it may be overdoing it but probably means there is gonna be a good show tonight in some areas at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not really. hrrr_ref_neng_9.png ohhh boy excited for tonight now! going to rip when that gets here john ( I know im LI-bias ). that is midnight correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 20z HRRR has more snow once again throughout Northern NJ .. now showing total snow amounts of around 1 foot from Central NJ through Newark and northward. I love the HRRR and as a short term model it has become extremely impressive...but I just have a really hard time believing this is possible. Not only does it seem too far east with the heaviest banding, but I simply think it will be hard to achieve those totals despite the convective nature of the precipitation. I think it's a tad overdone, but I don't buy the RAP's presentation either based on current obs. I think if you cut the HRRR down to size a bit you get a realistic accumulation. I like a 4-6 general area with possible areas of around 8 inches. That said, I've doubted the HRRR three times with storms this year. It's proven me wrong to a relative degree, all three times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 To be honest...:the HRRR has been good, but I've found the RAP to be even better with everything. The HRRR also it seems has shown us getting 12-18" at some point during each and every storm this year, which obviously has not happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not really. hrrr_ref_neng_9.png I was going to say, it looks about the same to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 20z HRRR has more snow once again throughout Northern NJ .. now showing total snow amounts of around 1 foot from Central NJ through Newark and northward. I love the HRRR and as a short term model it has become extremely impressive...but I just have a really hard time believing this is possible. Not only does it seem too far east with the heaviest banding, but I simply think it will be hard to achieve those totals despite the convective nature of the precipitation. But why though? It happened earlier... Why not now with even more dynamics involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not really. hrrr_ref_neng_9.png What time does it have it starting as snow in n/c nj? About 9-10pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I live in Belford section of middletown.. Bout a mile west of the raritan bay. Had 5" in my back yard Belford is really coastal, I mean there is a commercial fishing fleet there ( the Belford Pirates ). I'd imagine Leonardo, Highlands, Port Monmouth all had similar amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I was going to say, it looks about the same to my eyes. Down here it did, all you have to do is look at the radar/upper levels to know things are setting up farther NW than HRRR is showing IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I feel like we're getting two storms in one day even though its the same storm lol this is absurd and amazing at the same time. 11" here total Jersey City,NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ah you`re gona make it . Nice work Gotta be quick with the flight changes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The new HRRR has 1.3" of new liquid accumulation at EWR. Either something is really off, or we're gonna see something special tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Weather pruf what's your thoughts for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Down here it did, all you have to do is look at the radar/upper levels to know things are setting up farther NW than HRRR is showing IMO The HRRR resets every hour based on what's actually happening, though. So I have trouble believing it would still be terribly off. It must be focusing on new development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Weather pruf what's your thoughts for tonight weatherpruf? ask john (earthlight) guy knows his stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The new HRRR has 1.3" of new liquid accumulation at EWR. Either something is really off, or we're gonna see something special tonight. I've been wanting an answer on this....the RAP is way different and much further NW consistently...doesn't the HRRR run off of the RAP? If so, why would they be so different ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Gotta be quick with the flight changes!!From what I can tell delta seems to have done a better job of managing this. They seem to be getting more flights in and out. I am flying home on a red eye from lax that leaves at 12:30 ET. Our plane was supposed to come from JFK. That flight is delayed but not canceled , but delta has already swapped ours out for another aircraft. But how will conditions look at 5:30 when we are aupposed to land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I wonder if some of that is due to the convection over south jersey moving up this way. Would probably dump heavy rain or mix before the main area gets here as snow late tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've been wanting an answer on this....the RAP is way different and much further NW consistently...doesn't the HRRR run off of the RAP? If so, why would they be so different ? RAP has a nasty NW bias particularly this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've been wanting an answer on this....the RAP is way different and much further NW consistently...doesn't the HRRR run off of the RAP? If so, why would they be so different ? Because I don't believe that's the case actually, but someone more sure can chime in. Again, I don't buy the HRRR totals, but it's presentation looks much more believable to me based on the obs/setup than the RAP. That thing has bounced around in the short range kind of like the RGEM did for several runs for the first leg of the storm. I get gunshy myself on buying a model that does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RAP has a nasty NW bias particularly this winter. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 To me it seems that the 21z HRRR shifted the heavier snow a little more NE regarding Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 uh.. did anyone else see that flash of lighting in manhattan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The HRRR resets every hour based on what's actually happening, though. So I have trouble believing it would still be terribly off. It must be focusing on new development. But what could trigger a forcast for 15 inches of snow in EWR ? Thats beyond surreal ( and by extrapolation some of this will spread east from there). Im not as interested in it happening in as I am as to why that could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've been wanting an answer on this....the RAP is way different and much further NW...doesn't the HRRR run off of the RAP? If so, why would they be so different ? The RAP 850`s are too warm . 850`s at KNYC are plus 1.5 now ,, Where does the RAP think they are now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I can't believe it's still raining here. 4 hours on top of 15" on top of a 15" thick glacier. Friggin glue! I don't even want to think of more tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This. Honestly...the RAP has been GREAT. I have been able to time out the snow, snow rates, precip type, and banding with this model and I so far from anythjng close to a pro. Just because the RAP doesn't show the best snows over this area does not mean that it is not correct. As I said, it has been great and is supported by several other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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