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Feb 12-13 Obs for "The Storm That Wouldn't Say NO"


Herb@MAWS

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11 deg this morning with the sun shining slightly covered by sheer clouds. Will be out most of today as Wednesdays are my very busy day. Should be done by 7:30 just in time for the snow to start. 

8.9 as I left for work this morning. 

Only ~28k w/o power in GA....really thought it would be much higher at this point.

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20 degrees at my work in Arlington. Hopeful that we can creep a few degrees below the forecast and see if we can get a good performance tonight w/out worrying about a switchover.

Don't sweat surface obs today. We'll all be below freezing at onset. Switchover worries come from stuff happening overhead. Surface will have little impact on ptype tomorrow.

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Don't sweat surface obs today. We'll all be below freezing at onset. Switchover worries come from stuff happening overhead. Surface will have little impact on ptype tomorrow.

 

Good point.  I'm just pulling for 6 inches or more, which I feel should be doable even w/ the upper level temps being questionable after tomorrow morning.  Though I also live about 3 miles from DCA, so I have that going against me :)

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yeah 3" or so at my house too ... how do you think we will do?

I'm just not sure on this one. Usually this late in the game I would commit to a number, but I'm having trouble figuring out the deformation band later tomorrow afternoon into the evening. This is your first true Miller A coastal since your move to Parkton and these are the type of storms with the right set up can go to town in northern Carroll and Baltimore Counties because of the rolling hills. There are a good number of models that keep it snowing late into the evening. As the storm winds down we may see some rotating bands swinging through that get enhanced due to our elevation.

 

Sorry to get so long winded but these are the real fascinating storms for north central MD. We might even mix for a time after the initial thump and before the deform bands sets up. I take a stab and say 12 inches is a good bet for us. All bets are off if the deform rocks us though.

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I'm just not sure on this one. Usually this late in the game I would commit to a number, but I'm having trouble figuring out the deformation band later tomorrow afternoon into the evening. This is your first true Miller A coastal since your move to Parkton and these are the type of storms with the right set up can go to town in northern Carroll and Baltimore Counties because of the rolling hills. There are a good number of models that keep it snowing late into the evening. As the storm winds down we may see some rotating bands swinging through that get enhanced due to our elevation.

 

Sorry to get so long winded but these are the real fascinating storms for north central MD. We might even mix for a time after the initial thump and before the deform bands sets up. I take a stab and say 12 inches is a good bet for us. All bets are off if the deform rocks us though.

 

thanks for taking the time to give your thoughts. I think we do well tonight for sure. At least 6" on the ground by dawn should be a lock. But yeah, I do except some mixing for a time tomorrow before going back to all snow. And I agree, if we get into that deform band, we are golden for double digits.

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