Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We have entered a new phase of certitude for an impacting event that will strike the deep south with potentially historic ice-storm, to heavy snow for "some" along the I-95 corridor, with lashing winds at the coast, all the way to Maine. The attention should now turn to speculating/analyzing who has to contend with what. The exact track of this system is still going to take another 24 hours to nail down. As NCEP has noted as of late in their various discussion products, some of the wind dynamics (mid level jets) are still not fully sampled enough as they are being foisted around the Aleutian region of the NE Pacific. A good bit of it has been sampled, however, so that is likely why there has been some tentative clustering amid the various guidance, where not yet the track is fully converged. That may not happen in guidance until overnight tonight. That said, the NAM has weakened the cyclonic result over the E ever since the lead impulse wind max(es) began coming over land near British Columbia. I am wondering if in its own rite it was getting falsely amplified assimilated grids prior to this entering a denser/truer sounding region -- but that is speculation. As of this most recent run, it actually still ends up near the consensus with a low nearing the lower 980's mb as it arrives into the Gulf Of Maine. The Euro did tick almost an imperceptible amount E, but I also concur with NCEP's diagnostic discussion, that it was more factor-able in the M/A than it was for us. It pretty much ends up identical in track by the time it gets to our latitude. However, it demos above all that it can shift a tad yet more; and as more refined data sampling takes place over the next 18 to 24 hours, that may very well be the case. Over all, there are guidance variations that from a very coarse perspective seem less important, but actually mean a very big difference in sensible implications. Those range from cold rain (eventually) in the UKMET, to pure white GGEM, and everything in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Continue the conversation, is this 7H depiction not a dry slot for ESNE leading to crappy rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone doing snow/rain maps that might be considered "reliable" at this point, or, are we still too far out with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like the track this low is taking. I tend to be wrong as soon as I post it, so fwiw. Gut feeling is the qpf numbers (at least for my area) increase as we get closer. Right now CON is looking at roughly .9 gfs .7 nam .8 ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It is all coming together for the G spot it seems. I like the notion of a later phase because that might get us a closing off and slowing down near us. That is my holy grail for this storm, but it looks more likely now than it did yesterday. Tip - is 40 hours of snow still on the table? Converging on the G spot it seems. A lot of us would like that, and not just the women. Be careful in letting spouses look at your posts, and don't talk out loud. "Yeah baby! It's going right into the g spot!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone doing snow/rain maps that might be considered "reliable" at this point, or, are we still too far out with this one? You'll have some maps with the afternoon forecast package. Confidence is probably high enough at this point that watches will be flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Time for a new thread, typhoon tips intro is crashing the servers Euro will come east as it delays the phase. That may have a consequence of warmth for some of us (hello) and it will likely shift east to our south too. We aren't talking huge shifts but I think we are heading to a definitive track outside ack but on the northwest side of halfway to the bm. 20-40 miles as a broader low before it wraps up. Models will likely play catchup with speed trends through the morning runs Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like the track this low is taking. I tend to be wrong as soon as I post it, so fwiw. Gut feeling is the qpf numbers (at least for my area) increase as we get closer. Right now CON is looking at roughly .9 gfs .7 nam .8 ec Looks like it takes it well west into SE Mass... NWS seems to indicate a path between the Cape and ACK... Makes a big difference in precipitation type. So it still seems to be up in the air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like the track this low is taking. I tend to be wrong as soon as I post it, so fwiw. Gut feeling is the qpf numbers (at least for my area) increase as we get closer. Right now CON is looking at roughly .9 gfs .7 nam .8 ec GFS looks more like .5 or .6 to me at 12z. 6z probably had the .9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS looks more like .5 or .6 to me at 12z. 6z probably had the .9. Yeah, I didn't look at the 12z yet, that was the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like it takes it well west into SE Mass... NWS seems to indicate a path between the Cape and ACK... Makes a big difference in precipitation type. So it still seems to be up in the air? the kicker will be coming in from the west to move it out over ACK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hopefully the ECM comes in looking like the UKMET, lol. The thing that I can't figure out is why the GFS and NAM are so tight with the precip shield to the west. Especially the GFS...usually a track like that would be decent up here, but it keeps the precipitation quite showery. The UKMET and ECM while further west, have also had a much larger precip shield to the NW. Looking at the GFS H7 RH plots, I'm surprised at how little precip its been printing out to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It has been slowing down a bit in getting here. At one point it was early Thurs morning (3-4AM) for SW New England... now it looks like 7-8AM for that area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 banging out it on the squeeze box. Scott, I think the height fall convective backlash is growing real legs further and further south. See it many times over the years as you pointed out taught to all of us by Mr Drag. Something modeling underestimates with regularity. Snow growth gets better and better as heights crash too. This is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jerry (can't use the quote feature - storm mode?), I am thinking a W Mass/NY border jack. Mitch/Logan11 area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Are we still looking at a long duration event? I think tippy mentioned 40 hrs of snow yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Guys, lets keep the thread with good analytical posts. Quality over quantity. Mods will be very liberal with the delete buttons. As a reminder, we have a pinned banter thread easily visible, so there is no excuse not to use it for banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That would be quite the stinger on uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hopefully the ECM comes in looking like the UKMET, lol. ukmetUS_sfc_prec_072.gif The thing that I can't figure out is why the GFS and NAM are so tight with the precip shield to the west. Especially the GFS...usually a track like that would be decent up here, but it keeps the precipitation quite showery. The UKMET and ECM while further west, have also had a much larger precip shield to the NW. Looking at the GFS H7 RH plots, I'm surprised at how little precip its been printing out to the west. Lots of dry NW flow between h5-h7 at hour 66. Sharp NW gradient likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When looking at color maps when you see the Portuguese Man O war look its a sig for huge backside height falls and associated banding. Berks Whites Mahoosuc special storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ggem looks a little nw to me but as a disclaimer the map isn't hour stamped so I cannot tell for sure if it's the 12z It's also an inferno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Are we still looking at a long duration event? I think tippy mentioned 40 hrs of snow yesterday... 24hr bomb...break friday evening then some snow showers overnight. Very lovey dovey weekend snuggled in by the fireplace like high school sweethearts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Brings the low into Long Island and changes all if ct ri and the most of ma to rain. Nice hit up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ggem looks a little nw to me but as a disclaimer the map isn't hour stamped so I cannot tell for sure if it's the 12z It's also an inferno Def way amped...over the Cape this run. I'm npt surprised though given the RGEM at 48 hours...it was really jacked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Brings the low into Long Island and changes all if ct ri and the most of ma to rain. Nice hit up north Looks like Euro. This is a southern stream disturbance...I could see the Euro working out ala Rays thoughts yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, I didn't look at the 12z yet, that was the 6z GFS yeah but .6 with that track? Seems unlikely. Focus on the track and use the Euro qpf generally, would be my thinking. Then see where the mid levels track and banding is likely to set up. Then bump the qpf more if we are in the right spot. Then focus on what gets added late Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Def way amped...over the Cape this run. I'm npt surprised though given the RGEM at 48 hours...it was really jacked up. Yeah right over Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not as great as of a look on the GGEM as it's a heavy snow to dry slot/mix back to snow look..Thankfully it's the GGEM..If we still a run like that on The Euro in an hour..then it's worry time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We're back where we've been for years. Ride the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This may take a superstorm 93 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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