February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[stormtracker]

NAM running

[snowfan]

Compared to 42h of 6Z, NAM actually looks slightly faster at 36h.

[yoda]

Snow starts ~9pm Wed on 12z NAM

 

39 -- L just SSW of OBX

[Huffwx]

Looks to hold, would like a stronger phase by 39...

[bobk]

This should be called the BVD 14 storm

[JMU2004]

NAM holds...ripping at 42

[yoda]

42 right over or just east of OBX

 

45 near mouth of Bay... lil east of ORF

[snowfan]

By H45, DC is > .5"

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not seeing a lot of difference in my area.  Maybe just a touch faster.

[stormtracker]

Looks to hold, would like a stronger phase by 39...

I'm fine just where it is.  Not trying to be greedy

[stormtracker]

Good sign that it's holding with the better 12z data in...no wild swings, etc.

[yoda]

51 east of ACY 100 miles or so

[WxUSAF]

DCA and BWI are 1"+  of QPF by 15z Thursday.  

[Ji]

that s/w now is definitely on land now right above Washington State. Running out of excuses. Lets see if euro holds today

 

[Ian]

Good sign that it's holding with the better 12z data in...no wild swings, etc.

Probably because that's a myth.

[mitchnick]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=sim_radar&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[snowfan]

Really like where we're at. Heaviest precip slides just off to the SE of us, but a very nice hit.

[stormtracker]

DCA and BWI are 1"+  of QPF by 15z Thursday.  

Sweet.   Think there's a warm layer somewhere?  850's are definitely cold enough, but of course that's not all there is to it.   We are in the NAM's "useful" window now, so...

[stormtracker]

Probably because that's a myth.

I guess, I'm just going by what the pros said on the radio show last night...

[Ji]

we are still 12 hours from NAMs useful window right?

[Bob Chill]

Maybe matt or Wes or somebody can bring up a similar track/strength coastal and having the deform/heaviest axis se of DC. I personally can't remember any. Nam is a big hit regardless. Great run.

[DCAlexandria]

Wes has said several times that precip

Shield will be NW of what NAM shows. So I'll take this run verbatim.

[weatherCCB]

Hi, long time lurker. First time posting. I've noticed that in my 50 years living in Rockville, that the big ones usually mix here. But when the r/s line holds around D.C. That is when I have received my most dynamic storms. Deform usually sets up just west of that mixing line. Just my own observation. Great info on this forum. Thanks.

[Ian]

I guess, I'm just going by what the pros said on the radio show last night...

Yeah.. Yet to see it happen. The models have huge amounts of great satellite data before anything hits shore. They do a pretty great job in places that have no obs.

[WxUSAF]

Sweet.   Think there's a warm layer somewhere?  850's are definitely cold enough, but of course that's not all there is to it.   We are in the NAM's "useful" window now, so...

Eh…based on the maps, maybe right at freezing at 950mb only around 12z.  Above and below 950mb it's below freezing.  With the rates NAM is advertising, that's snow.  

[Huffwx]

I'm fine just where it is.  Not trying to be greedy

 

 

Agree. I mean, that it's not EUROlicious. It's 12-14 here as is. Euro and CMC is a STRETCH.

 

I'm assuming the NAM doesn't have the NW data because it runs off the 6z data

[va_ghost]

DCA and BWI are 1"+  of QPF by 15z Thursday.  

What about RIC - any sign of the central VA curse of warm air ruining the storms that tend to go north and only then dump all snow

[caviman2201]

Odd that the LWX point forecasts are calling for essentially nothing... I wonder when they'll update.  

 

For Columbia, MD:

 

[mitchnick]

Maybe matt or Wes or somebody can bring up a similar track/strength coastal and having the deform/heaviest axis se of DC. I personally can't remember any. Nam is a big hit regardless. Great run.

I guarantee you if you check soundings, NAM will have a warm layer around 925mb to our south so I'm OK with it just as modeled

[stormtracker]

Yeah.. Yet to see it happen. The models have huge amounts of great satellite data before anything hits shore. They do a pretty great job in places that have no obs.

I think I agree for the most part.  Wes was saying sats are great, but balloons show a better profile...but I think that matters when three is total chaos maybe....these models had this pegged for a while now and were pretty much on the same page.