Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The first thread is getting too large for the database to handle... It's looking pretty likely that we've got a big storm on our hands. Let's continue the discussion here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The big one? You've done it now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 The big one? You've done it now... LOL.. I've given up jinxes. It'll be a big one for at least someone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You mean The Big One or The Big 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Should someone recap the current modeling for historical and verification purposes? It would be great to have at the top of this new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You mean The Big One or The Big 1"?You're pretty optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Got supplies and the sleds. I think we cash in on this one. 18z GFS looked good. Real modeling begins tomorrow as energy is being sampled. I'm sure they will be sending some recon flights out tonight or tomorrow if this looks like it's going to slow crawl up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Eps mean has 10 inches here. First time it has more than the op which is down to 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GEFS ENS looks wetter and colder. Has an inch of QPF for me and wow's backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Got supplies and the sleds. I think we cash in on this one. 18z GFS looked good. Real modeling begins tomorrow as energy is being sampled. I'm sure they will be sending some recon flights out tonight or tomorrow if this looks like it's going to slow crawl up the east coast.I thought the energy would be sampled for tonight's 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WOW. The EPS members are way up! Mean is up 2.25" in GSO alone to 10" as of the 12z run! All 51 members show >2" and only five show less than 6". It's the best EPS run yet without a doubt and the second improved run in a row. Totals (this is probably mostly or all snow further north and west, but ice further south and east): GSO: 10" HKY: 9.5" CLT: 11.5" (mixing?) AVL: 10.25" RDU: 9.75" (likely some mixing) MWK: 8.75" RWI: 7.75" (likely mixing) PGV: 5.75" (definitely mixing) FAY: 10" (definitely mixing) DAN: 10" CAE: 10" (obviously not snow, but IP and/or ZR) -> NO snow here... you're probably looking at 1" ZR and/or 1" ZR/IP GSP: 11.5" (probable mixing?) ATL: 5" (probably not much snow) AHN: 9.75" (mixing, I'd presume) RMG: 4" (mixing) DNN: 4.25" (mixing) If you want to know more locations, you can ask in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 BMX says there could be snow on Wednesday Night in Eastern AL. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY FALLINGTEMPERATURES IN THAT LAYER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.THIS COULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATIONCLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION BAND ANDDYNAMIC COOLING LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF ACCUMULATINGSNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WOW. EPS members way up! Mean is up 2.25" in GSO alone to 10" as of the 12z run! It's the best EPS run yet without a doubt and the second improved run in a row. Totals (this is probably mostly or all snow further north and west, but ice further south and east): GSO: 10" HKY: 9.5" CLT: 11.5" RDU: 9.75" MKW: 8.75" DAN: 10" CAE: 10" (obviously not snow, but IP and/or ZR) GSP: 11.5" Do you have enough info to determine totals for only the periods where snow is falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Should someone recap the current modeling for historical and verification purposes? It would be great to have at the top of this new thread. sig west shift from the 7z products & 15z SREF prob of >1/2" ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Self explanatory, hope someone over that way gets CRUSHED! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Do you have enough info to determine totals for only the periods where snow is falling? Unfortunately, no. I do believe the ensemble mean is east of the operational, though, so there might be less mixing. I'm not sure. BTW, I added Asheville. I knew I forgot someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Unfortunately, no. I do believe the ensemble mean is east of the operational, though, so there might be less mixing. I'm not sure. BTW, I added Asheville. I knew I forgot someone. Alright, I'll just go in for what I want: how much snow for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ECMWF ENS mean for RDU is now 10 inches! Looks like CLT is around 11.5 inches. Again keep in mind it isnt all snow, takes ice into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, this is never good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ECMWF ENS mean for RDU is now 10 inches! Looks like CLT is around 11.5 inches. Again keep in mind it isnt all snow, takes ice into account. I know this has been discussed, but I want to make sure I understand it:If these snowfall maps show 10 inches, and presumably some of that is IP/ZR, does that mean if you stick a ruler in the ground, you'll measure 10 total inches of SN+IP+ZR or does that mean it's more likely that you'll measure something like 4 inches of SN+IP+ZR? I think it's the latter because the model is counting ANY frozen/freezing precip as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, this is never good: Here is Charlotte's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I know this has been discussed, but I want to make sure I understand it: If these snowfall maps show 10 inches, and presumably some of that is IP/ZR, does that mean if you stick a ruler in the ground, you'll measure 10 total inches of SN+IP+ZR or does that mean it's more likely that you'll measure something like 4 inches of SN+IP+ZR? I think it's the latter because the model is counting ANY frozen/freezing precip as snow. It's the latter. I think what it's saying is that RDU, for example, gets 1" QPF of wintry precipitation (thus, 10:1 ratios = 10" of snow). RDU probably mixes, so I doubt the actual mean is 10". Given the ensemble mean is apparently east of the op, places like CLT, GSO, HKY, DAN, and MWK might escape with all or almost all snow, though (just a guess), and RDU would probably get more snow than the op, as well. That's just speculation, though. That's also how you get it showing 10"+ in CAE when, in reality, that's almost certainly IP and/or ZR. I am curious if the StormVista (?) maps that DT posted for the EPS mean are more accurate when accounting for mixing. Does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here is Charlotte's Down here in KCAE; we are ice thouigh. Scary! CLT should see a good bit of snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not sure if this is a banter thing but wow never seen rhat forecast in my life with that many days snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here is Charlotte's Wow. Simply wow. Around half of the members are 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NWS GSP @NWSGSP 15m Here is our YouTube briefing for the upcoming winter event. #SEstorm #ncwx #scwx #gawx http://ow.ly/trzRV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Interesting, I live 50 miles due east of Charlotte and news 14 saying mostly ice and heavy snow North and West of Charlotte. not sure I agree all depends on the track, the models as of now. That sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That is no joke. Continues to tick up and up.. Wow. Simply wow. Around half of the members are 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GEFS has RDU about 1.25" of QPF, Euro Ens is about 1.3" and GGEM Ens is about 1", pretty good agreement. Now we just need to hope the sleet can hold out over the frzn or even rain. The 18z GEFS run is the wettest yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 CLT & NW South Carolina has 90% probability of equal to or greater than 6" based on the Euro EPS probabilities on WxBell. Entire state of NC has 90% chance at >1" and much of the state save east of I-95 has 90% chance at > 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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