stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yea yea, thread bad mojo blah blah blah. For the realist and rational people, let's talk about it here. We're the only superstitious forum without a storm thread. First out: Wes likes the NAM...cautious though...it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I like everything I see this am. First challenge is to feel confidence in the existence of a storm for our latitude. Once that happens (tomorrow?) we can start freaking out over ptype and amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 How about the "Made it to within 144 hours storm"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I like everything I see this am. First challenge is to feel confidence in the existence of a storm for our latitude. Once that happens (tomorrow?) we can start freaking out over ptype and amounts personally, between the 0Z Euro & EPS (and all their prior runs), 6Z GFS and 6Z and 12Z NAM, I do believe we see a storm and ptype is the only issue EDIT: OK, amounts too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lets bring this one home for the big cities. No more of this sharp gradient bs just north and west. A real storm that shuts down thw whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 personally, between the 0Z Euro & EPS (and all their prior runs), 6Z GFS and 6Z and 12Z NAM, I do believe we see a storm and ptype is the only issue EDIT: OK, amounts too Yea, it's a glaring signal and the gfs/gefs just caved big time last 2 runs. Canadian has the low off obx but a miss. If it happens similar to the euro then I will never buy into any ss storm in progressive flow until the euro says so. Conversely, I won't buy into ns vort in progressive flow until the gfs has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM looks promising...SREFs not looking bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not to be a total weenie, when you say the GFS has caved, has it given us any snow yet or just follows a more euro like set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not to be a total weenie, when you say the GFS has caved, has it given us any snow yet or just follows a more euro like set up? Verbatim it had a couple of three hour periods with a couple inches of snow.. but 12z is almost out.. so we will no more in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Finally the GFS caved and now kneels before King Euro. Lets hope it sticks! How about "The Negative Storm". ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Snow breaking out in Texas-Ark-OK always seems like a good sign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Our luck the Euro will have a run like the old gfs did at 12z yesterday and gfs will look like the old Euro. Lol. Love the 87 analog btw. Was living in Richmond tgen, and we ended up with a sizable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 comparing to the 00z from last night (valid at same time 2-13-2014 00z).. the 0 degree 850 line is markedly further the south and the precip shield is further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFS kinda screws the phase up a bit, this does have a lot of potential. The GFS almost did it fully this run, its trying hard. Keeps separate lows however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not to be a total weenie, when you say the GFS has caved, has it given us any snow yet or just follows a more euro like set up? I dont get into the "this model caved to that one" talk. Its silly imo and has no value. We see this all the time with the models, they have different ideas on how features interact in the evolution of a storm. The GFS has had some inconsistent and whacky runs(yesterdays 18z), but overall has had a storm coming north, while EURO has been more steadfast with its ideas run to run. Doesnt mean its right. Its a tough pattern, but I think we are beginning to see a convergence now on a solution. I became more optimistic looking at the 0z GFS and the further NW placement of the GL low on that run compared to earlier runs. NAM this morning also was encouraging. GFS will probably come a bit more NW with its track, and the EURO less amped and more east.(hopefully) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 I hate the GFS...screws the phase up with this double low nonsense. After the radio show last night and hearing it's biases...and my bias toward wanting to snow, I'm throwing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 wow the euro sucked last night.. too bad I declared huggage yesterday i guess it's better to get a rainstorm than no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I hate the GFS...screws the phase up with this double low nonsense. After the radio show last night and hearing it's biases...and my bias toward wanting to snow, I'm throwing it out. I gotta think it is fine.... with the Euro running inland and all. just be thankful it didnt show a rainstorm. Maybe we will have a better idea this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS is a huge hit for the fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I gotta think it is fine.... with the Euro running inland and all. just be thankful it didnt show a rainstorm. Maybe we will have a better idea this time tomorrow. I agree..given the latest Euro solution, having the GFS where it is now isnt horrible. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I hate the GFS...screws the phase up with this double low nonsense. After the radio show last night and hearing it's biases...and my bias toward wanting to snow, I'm throwing it out. I'm not throwing it but it does tend to like being suppressed. The reason I wouldn't throw any model solutions concerning the low was how different the different ens members handled the trough on the 06Z ens. Look at how much the green lines differed in handling the trough that is critical to our storm. Still loads of chaos so there is no way of knowing whether the 12Z GFS model is just reflecting that uncertainty or is a reflection of its tendency to sometimes suppress waves. My guess is the solution is somewhere between the Euro solution and the GFS but both remain viable solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I actually think the GFS looks better in almost every respect. If it wasn't for that double low thing, it looks like might be very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS is a huge hit for the fish lol its not that bad. prior to yesterday, it was warm and wet. Since the whacked out 18z run, its getting closer. Still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 lol its not that bad. prior to yesterday, it was warm and wet. Since the whacked out 18z run, its getting closer. Still plenty of time. it's actually a bit east of 6z as far as I can tell. tho with the euro being overamped the the gfs being blind we might be OK. except it's still going to take a lot of luck imby given the high running off to the east etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 it's actually a bit east of 6z as far as I can tell. tho with the euro being overamped the the gfs being blind we might be OK. except it's still going to take a lot of luck imby given the high running off to the east etc. As we know the GFS likes flatter/suppressed, then trends NW. Although with the fast flow it could be correct. If we do get a storm coming up the coast, temps are going to be an issue for you and me. But given the initial cold air in place, some accum snow would be a good bet before any changeover. I am hoping the GFS does what it usually does, and the Euro comes in less amped(it should) and a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z GGEM slowly coming in on the crappy maps 72 -- 1014 L in N GOM, just a little bit ESE of NO... 1036 H in Northern NY 84 -- 1009 L in Big Bend of FL... 1033 H moving off east coast of ME (QPF making it into C VA) 96 --- 997 L SSE of OBX by like 50-70 miles or so... Snowing here (B&W maps would make it appear so since QPF is in area and dashed line is to the SE of DCA) 108 -- not out yet... will update in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cng885 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 6z gfs looks real good for richmond. Anxious to see euro, I don't know if that far inland is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z GGEM slowly coming in on the crappy maps 72 -- 1014 L in N GOM, just a little bit ESE of NO... 1036 H in Northern NY 84 -- 1009 L in Big Bend of FL... 1033 H moving off east coast of ME (QPF making it into C VA) 96 --- 997 L SSE of OBX by like 50-70 miles or so... Snowing here (B&W maps would make it appear so since QPF is in area and dashed line is to the SE of DCA) 108 -- not out yet... will update in a minute I take it that's west/north of the last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I take it that's west/north of the last run? Yes... 00z was mostly a grazing for this area as it was just far east enough to not really drop any QPF at all... gave the DC area a few hrs of light snow and that was it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Um... yeah... 12z GGEM is really nuts... pretty much the perfect solution for all of us around here... precip map has it at 967mb at 107 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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