Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol...GEM for Saturday Im looking forward to the warm up. Im actually tired of being cold and sleepless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Im looking forward to the warm up. Im actually tired of being cold and sleepless Wonder how your wife feels about your hobby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Meanwhile, GFS looks like a Miller B over the weekend may be in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Meanwhile, GFS looks like a Miller B over the weekend may be in the works. Funny you should say that... Not quite an MB - more of a clipper - but an overperformer according to GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Maybe we should have a radio show to destroy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Funny you should say that... Not quite an MB - more of a clipper - but an overperformer according to GFS... Snowpack refresher after some decent melting on Friday. Then the nice warmup next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Maybe we should have a radio show to destroy it At least you have a good sense of humor about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol gfs has another event friday overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol gfs has another event friday overnight Popped up on the NAM earlier, but it's pretty impressive that it's come out of pretty much nowhere. Great vort pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Popped up on the NAM earlier, but it's pretty impressive that it's come out of pretty much nowhere. Great vort pass. Looks pretty good on both the NAM and GFS. 1996 we had a day after storm that was a true surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro has a light mix/zr event tuesday night. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro ens and GEFS are now agreeing on cooling down the east around the 25th. It looks like it has legs. Amplified pattern to start with west ridge / east trough. HInts of a -epo reload emerging. Mixed signals though. Also trending towards another -ao period. Personally, I'm pretty tired of tracking storms for the time being. The 6 day warmup leading into the last few days of the month will be welcomed. I wouldn't mind tracking a march lion though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro ens and GEFS are now agreeing on cooling down the east around the 25th. It looks like it has legs. Amplified pattern to start with west ridge / east trough. HInts of a -epo reload emerging. Mixed signals though. Also trending towards another -ao period. Personally, I'm pretty tired of tracking storms for the time being. The 6 day warmup leading into the last few days of the month will be welcomed. I wouldn't mind tracking a march lion though.... Atmospheric memory. I wouldn't be surprised at another decent event. The cold hasn't really verified this winter. It may be sloppy, but at least we can say we have had a decent winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Um , the cold hasn't really verified this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Atmospheric memory. I wouldn't be surprised at another decent event. The cold hasn't really verified this winter. It may be sloppy, but at least we can say we have had a decent winter. Trolling? Or serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Trolling? Or serious? Haha. No. Warm. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 just when I figured winter would start to end after this week, last night's Euro had signs of cross polar flow by Day 10 and maintained the persistent trough it's had over Japan all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 just when I figured winter would start to end after this week, last night's Euro had signs of cross polar flow by Day 10 and maintained the persistent trough it's had over Japan all winter I agree mitch, looks like a re-building ridge in the Northeast Pac, after this period of retrogression, especially as we near the 360 mark. Also, appears that heights build over the pole developing -ao , + nao trending neutral in time, and a possibility of a huge +pna. The pna has not been truly positive since back in late Jan. At the same time Canada is really cold with some nice negative deviations up there ready to roll down as the +pan pattern emerges. This is supported by the CPC analogs and the ECM ensembles, CF2. So, a pronounced warm up followed by one last chance of snow in the mid Atlantic late month, early March, along with much colder weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I agree mitch, looks like a re-building ridge in the Northeast Pac, after this period of retrogression, especially as we near the 360 mark. Also, appears that heights build over the pole developing -ao , + nao trending neutral in time, and a possibility of a huge +pna. The pna has not been truly positive since back in late Jan. At the same time Canada is really cold with some nice negative deviations up there ready to roll down as the +pan pattern emerges. This is supported by the CPC analogs and the ECM ensembles, CF2. So, a pronounced warm up followed by one last chance of snow in the mid Atlantic late month, early March, along with much colder weather. there appears to be a displacing of the polar vortex per the Euro over the next 10 days which is pushing it to Asia and building high pressure over the Pole and Canada you can see what I mean by going to the link below, click on February 13 date, then click on 30 mb near the top of the list on the left side of the ride window, then when you see the first pic of the globe, keep clicking on the little box entitled "NEXT" until it stops; that takes you to day 9 Day 10, for some reason, won't advance so move done the page a bit to the next pic of the globe and that's day 10 http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 there appears to be a displacing of the polar vortex per the Euro over the next 10 days which is pushing it to Asia and building high pressure over the Pole and Canada you can see what I mean by going to the link below, click on February 13 date, then click on 30 mb near the top of the list on the left side of the ride window, then when you see the first pic of the globe, keep clicking on the little box entitled "NEXT" until it stops; that takes you to day 9 Day 10, for some reason, won't advance so move done the page a bit to the next pic of the globe and that's day 10 http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html Thanks mitch. The source regions we tap into later this month are still pretty cold. Granted it is late Feb., early March, but if any winter can produce an early March snow here, it would be this one. Amazed at the consistency for a lack of a significant - nao all these past months, sure there have been episodes of change in regards to nao, and changes in the Davis Straits, etc. but nothing like past years. The models are forecasting the nao to trend more so downward to neutral over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thanks mitch. The source regions we tap into later this month are still pretty cold. Granted it is late Feb., early March, but if any winter can produce an early March snow here, it would be this one. Amazed at the consistency for a lack of a significant - nao all these past months, sure there have been episodes of change in regards to nao, and changes in the Davis Straits, etc. but nothing like past years. The models are forecasting the nao to trend more so downward to neutral over time. welcome and then there's the CFS2 that has been steadily getting colder for MAR, so who knows... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 welcome and then there's the CFS2 that has been steadily getting colder for MAR, so who knows... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif I always look forward to you posting these mitch. It has been a fun past few months. The CFS2 have a done a reasonable job as well these these past few months if I recall correctly. I believe, the JMA seasonal model has done very well the past four months or so based on some videos I have seen. It might have been modeling Greenland blocking in Feb., based on some images that I saw, so if that is true , the part at least did not work out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Give me a big honking torch next week, a week of actual potential at the end of this month and beginning of March, then crank up the sun obs. Just about time for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Give me a big honking torch next week, a week of actual potential at the end of this month and beginning of March, then crank up the sun obs. Just about time for spring. I agree with this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ji is going to love this one (an old joke from a long time ago) but...I'm seeing signs for another nor'easter/active period in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ji is going to love this one (an old joke from a long time ago) but...I'm seeing signs for another nor'easter/active period in early March. lol the annual March 4 HM storm. What time frame are you looking at:)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ji is going to love this one (an old joke from a long time ago) but...I'm seeing signs for another nor'easter/active period in early March. heh, last few days have looked nice with the global ensembles starting around the 25-26th through the end of the runs. PNA ridge extending up through BC/AK towards the arctic circle and deep trough in the east. Wavelengths look short so active period I assume for someone in the east. Not really a -nao look though but some heigher heights around the pole and basically all of europe showing up. It would appear the eastern canada and us would be the coldest air relative to normal in the northern hemisphere. Looks like our mini-heatwave gets broken by some sort of strong cutter/cold front and then back in the game...maybe. Would match seasonal trends to a tee. 5 day warm spell transitioning into a colder and potentially productive period. I like it. Euro ens 5 day mean looks pretty good d10-15. I think there is a split flow signal but I'm not totally sure. Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think we will see one more event this year that keeps up for the 12:45am Euro. This isnt the type of winter that just goes away apparently like 89-90. Seasonal Pattern FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think we will see one more event this year that keeps up for the 12:45am Euro. This isnt the type of winter that just goes away apparently like 89-90. Seasonal Pattern FTW I agree at this point. Maybe more than once. EPS and GEFS are very similar with height patterns last week of the month. GEFS cools us down a bit quicker (by the 24th) and holds the cold and amplified pattern through the end of the run. I think the signal is strong as of now. I'm ready for some warmth though. The prelude is going to be sweet and restful. Then the laser comes out. WxBell doesn't have 5 day means for the gefs. Here's the 28th. Same looks as the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 One more panel. GEFS mean 850's. Euro ens basically identical. It can snow in late feb early march with this look. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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