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2/9 - 2/10 light snow observations


Zelocita Weather

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The NAM seemed to be closer to a better event for most-the trough looked a little sharper and there was a minor response near the coast. If it digs more and takes on a better appearance, still possible at this range, there could be a better area of snow north and east of it. The major event idea has been off the table for a while, but a nice few inch event is still possible. An event from the first system I think is out the window. That needs to be as weak as possible and out of the way for the second trough to have a chance.

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As it is this is 1 to 3 . This has been the range in which the models have started to trend wetter .

I don't think getting to  .25 is out of the question, and at 15 to 1 that would make this a plowable snow .

I never toss pot 4 inch systems .  Gotta take what you can get .

post-7472-0-60470700-1391725677_thumb.gi

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There is a complex ULL just now coming ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast.  It has several shortwaves embedded in its rotation.  The models sends several of these waves eastward, one after another.  Right now most guidance sharpens the first in the series.  But a few of the GEFS and SREF members key on another wave right on the heels of the first - and develop a moderate impact coastal low.  I think this follow up wave bears watching.  It would be more like a Sun. night into Mon timeframe.  This wave is in a better position to amplify with respect the longwave trof axis.  And it's possible the ULL coming ashore might cause some model changes.  I've seen numerous cases where models alternatively amplified one wave and then suddenly another, when they were in close proximity. 

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There is a complex ULL just now coming ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast.  It has several shortwaves embedded in its rotation.  The models sends several of these waves eastward, one after another.  Right now most guidance sharpens the first in the series.  But a few of the GEFS and SREF members key on another wave right on the heels of the first - and develop a moderate impact coastal low.  I think this follow up wave bears watching.  It would be more like a Sun. night into Mon timeframe.  This wave is in a better position to amplify with respect the longwave trof axis.  And it's possible the ULL coming ashore might cause some model changes.  I've seen numerous cases where models alternatively amplified one wave and then suddenly another, when they were in close proximity. 

Yea I was noticing that too. Also the energy that exits the east coast in the next 24 hours will play a role

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Yea I was noticing that too. Also the energy that exits the east coast in the next 24 hours will play a role

yea this isn't over I think and 0Z I feel will start to get much better sampling or idea on what to concentrate on. in a winter where inside 60 hrs trends were pretty signifigant im leaning towards more trending with this one as well, to a degree to be determined however

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I'm not giving up on another moderate event in the winter where the trend is you're Freind! I'm thinking a low end warning event is not off the table. This is the year of overproduction!

after looking at the NAM its completely off the table and put away - maybe we can squeeze a coating to inch out of this - maybe

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014020700/namconus_reflectivity_us_19.png

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I'm not giving up on another moderate event in the winter where the trend is you're Freind! I'm thinking a low end warning event is not off the table. This is the year of overproduction!

We need the trough to trend sharper and hopefully negative tilt when it gets here. If it's a sheared out piece of crap, it won't generate anything but maybe some snow showers good for a coating. Inverted troughs are impossible to rely on.

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The NAM is 1" and both the GFS and Plume are at 2" for this failed event at NYC.

It's not a failed event considering nothing significant was shown on any model within a reasonable timeframe (within 96 hours). Anyway, let's see if we can get the second wave to amplify some and give us a few inches.
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