Whitelakeroy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Chicago is gonna miss out on this one for sure, but we can't really complain now can we??? Share the love! Do have to say the thing does look pretty on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So it begins... [forky]diaf.[/forky] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 No change on my 8-10" call, though there should be some localized amounts of a foot or more in the IND cwa. If I bust it will probably be because I'm too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 No change on my 8-10" call, though there should be some localized amounts of a foot or more in the IND cwa. If I bust it will probably be because I'm too low. Seems about right. Going to be going with 8-12 inches here with isolated 14-16 inch totals where lake enhancement occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 has anyone noticed that the dry slot is really surging north? like more so than models have it. and the overall def band seems displaced more west than originally thought. wondering how far north that will make it in IL. so far waa snows have been nothing due to the dry air in place. hoping we can saturate soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Interesting to see what the 18z suite does. Another northerly bump would be great for Toronto, although a cursory glance of sfc/ul mesoanalysis wouldn't really support any major adjustments one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Chicago is gonna miss out on this one for sure, but we can't really complain now can we??? Share the love! Do have to say the thing does look pretty on radar... Define 'miss'. We're likely going to get 3-5" across the metro, adding to a historic winter tally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 No change on my 8-10" call, though there should be some localized amounts of a foot or more in the IND cwa. If I bust it will probably be because I'm too low. Good problem to have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Define 'miss'. We're likely going to get 3-5" across the metro, adding to a historic winter tally. True true Chitown... Was referring to the dreams / wishcasting / prayers from some of the high totals down south and this storm magically making a 100 mile NW jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 has anyone noticed that the dry slot is really surging north? like more so than models have it. and the overall def band seems displaced more west than originally thought. wondering how far north that will make it in IL. so far waa snows have been nothing due to the dry air in place. hoping we can saturate soon Yea I was wondering the same thing could a MET or someone go in to more detail about where this dry slot could end up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the 18z NAM has shifted SE. And it's more than just noise I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the 18z NAM has shifted SE. And it's more than just noise I'd say. obs weren't lining up with the amped 12z run...it was a mirage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvansvilleAce Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Heavy snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Decent correction southeast on the 18z NAM DP up to 14.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the 18z NAM has shifted SE. And it's more than just noise I'd say.It was fun while it lasted.I just pray those epic totals it was showing before don't happen just to my SE. It's one thing to miss a 8-10" storm. It's an entirely different story to just miss a 14-18" storm. A little part of me would probably die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro looking to score b2b wins (relative to the competition) IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yea I was wondering the same thing could a MET or someone go in to more detail about where this dry slot could end up well I have my degree in meteorology but I am a lil perplexed myself. looking at models it looked like it would stay near the STL area or just south. but looking at the way it is really pushing north now is making me think it could go north of the I-70 corridor. it could be that the ULL is moving more NW than originally thought. to me that deformation band seems so displaced. almost like KC is on the eastern fringes of that. models showed it moving relatively west to east as the storm system pulls E-NE but the way it is oriented now it looks like it could go quite north. I could be totally wrong with how I am looking at it. very strange system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 obs weren't lining up with the amped 12z run...it was a mirage Complete reversal. I thought it might nudge SE but not this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 well I have my degree in meteorology but I am a lil perplexed myself. looking at models it looked like it would stay near the STL area or just south. but looking at the way it is really pushing north now is making me think it could go north of the I-70 corridor. it could be that the ULL is moving more NW than originally thought. to me that deformation band seems so displaced. almost like KC is on the eastern fringes of that. models showed it moving relatively west to east as the storm system pulls E-NE but the way it is oriented now it looks like it could go quite north. I could be totally wrong with how I am looking at it. very strange system IMO this was well modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro looking to score b2b wins (relative to the competition) IMBY This was never more than a 2-4 storm for us for at least 5 days now. Don't understand why this is so surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This was never more than a 2-4 storm for us for at least 5 days now. Don't understand why this is so surprising. I wasn't surprised...just mentioned it because of all the crap the euro has been taking. SREF remain consistent with 5" and change at ORD...they have been tossed at least once by LOT but at this range it should have a clue. The floor is also up to 4" so that's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snowing nicely here right now. Roads already getting greasy. What a head fake by the 12z NAM, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snowing nicely here right now. Roads already getting greasy. was wonder when you'd check in. Next 6 hours or so look great down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wasn't surprised...just mentioned it because of all the crap the euro has been taking. SREF remain consistent with 5" and change at ORD...they have been tossed at least once by LOT but at this range it should have a clue. The floor is also up to 4" so that's nice. The only way I can see ORD or anywhere else in our area get up to 5" is with some decent lake enhancement. We'll see how the radar looks later tonight, but IMO those numbers are too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wasn't surprised...just mentioned it because of all the crap the euro has been taking. SREF remain consistent with 5" and change at ORD...they have been tossed at least once by LOT but at this range it should have a clue. The floor is also up to 4" so that's nice. I made a call of 2.5" at ORD on another forum a couple days ago. After riding my 8.1" call for the last storm all the way to SuperBustLand, I'll ride my 2.5" hoping to bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 was wonder when you'd check in. Next 6 hours or so look great down there Had to make my grocery beer run. Now, to enjoy the festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Heaviest snow of the storm over the last 15 minutes. Absolutely dumping right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF plumes now at a foot for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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