IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is why I am skeptical of going more than 3 inches for Northern NJ. Don't you mean Central NJ to Southern NJ? The ratios at NNJ is at least 10:1 on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is why I am skeptical of going more than 3 inches for Northern NJ. I upper my totals due to latest model trends, and put Northern NJ in the 2-4 range. Even a 10-1 ratio with around .40-.50 QPF still is 4-5 inches, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Even a 10-1 ratio with around .40-.50 QPF still is 4-5 inches, no? I really think that the models are slightly overdone with precip. Some places can reach four inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1.34km NAM Fire-Nest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Don't you mean Central NJ to Southern NJ? The ratios at NNJ is at least 10:1 on that map. They have slightly better dynamics that will allow the heavier precip to do it's work, so I think central/southern NJ(Trenton south) can reach 5 inches maybe slightly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Central NJ into PHL = better dynamics/heavier banding/more wet than white to start....4-5" NE NJ into NYC = not the best dynamics/moderate to heavy banding/more white barely any wet....around 4" NW NJ = not the best dynamics/moderate snow banding/all white....3-4" I think it's all close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Central NJ into PHL = better dynamics/heavier banding/more wet than white to start....4-5" NE NJ into NYC = not the best dynamics/moderate to heavy banding/more white barely any wet....around 4" NW NJ = not the best dynamics/moderate snow banding/all white....3-4" I think it's all close Exactly. Went right with my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Exactly. Went right with my call.I made that call on here yesterday evening because these types of storms have happened before...this won't be epic by any means, but will still be a significant event I'm sure. Reminds me of a mid march snowfall actually. Also, compare it to our last storm. Snow fell into temps around 10 degrees with a little over 0.5" qpf. We have similar qpf amounts here but ratios might literally be 1/3 of what they were last storm for some areas. I received 9" or so last storm. Assuming ratios are not exactly 1/3 of the last storm but more like 3/8 of it, it would be around 4" here. It's also worth noting that while total snowfall accumulated maps might show 6-8" for our area or any area....snow depth maps on all of those models never really exceed 4.5" and show more like 3-4" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebythec Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is from Weather Underground for 08736 - Manasquan, NJ. Yesterday it had 5-8" Monday Heavy snow. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. 8 to 12 inches of snow expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My final call. Upped amounts slightly mostly heavily weighing RGEM, Euro, NAM and early high Rez guidance. Giving GFS some weight for its warmth and NAM because 925 warm noses never lose. Sorry Southeast coast. Hope I'm wrong. Crayola called...it wants its crayons back nice looking map accumulations wise though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Crayola called...it wants its crayons back nice looking map accumulations wise though i'd say move the heaviest accums south about 15-20 miles and its a golden map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 i'd say move the heaviest accums south about 15-20 miles and its a golden map. your from staten island, that explains it haha. seriously though I just feel NYC proper on east is 4-5" with the main show in CNJ to pauls front door in Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Piscataway and Edison should be in a real good spot for tomm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GEFS are like OP, maybe a tad north with the 0.5" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 your from staten island, that explains it haha. seriously though I just feel NYC proper on east is 4-5" with the main show in CNJ to pauls front door in Monmouth county Its true, i'm the biggest weenie out there, but yeah I think i'm in a good spot for tomorrow, just like njblizzard said. Too bad I have to drive to class at 9 tomorrow going to be a b*tch to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Its true, i'm the biggest weenie out there, but yeah I think i'm in a good spot for tomorrow, just like njblizzard said. Too bad I have to drive to class at 9 tomorrow going to be a b*tch to get there. im on the road by 6-630 and im taking the dodge ram tomorrow so i'll be good and by 430 it should be fine driving home...I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 i'd say move the heaviest accums south about 15-20 miles and its a golden map. I might have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 im on the road by 6-630 and im taking the dodge ram tomorrow so i'll be good and by 430 it should be fine driving home...I hope Least you have a car that is meant to drive in the snow, i'm taking my 2007 sonata, not really a great car to drive in the snow with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Least you have a car that is meant to drive in the snow, i'm taking my 2007 sonata, not really a great car to drive in the snow with. I have a 2012 VW GLI with air suspension as well and It did pretty good in the two hour drive home in the mid week storm a couple weeks back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM is well north and west and has increased snowfall totals.. SN_000-048_0000.gif Sharp cutoff in S NJ.. Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I have a 2012 VW GLI with air suspension as well and It did pretty good in the two hour drive home in the mid week storm a couple weeks back The storm on the 21'st? Because with the little coating on the roads people were slipping around when I was driving home, granted the snows from that storm were very dry so that didnt help at all . Overall for my area I wouldn't be shocked to see 8 inches if everything goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Channel 7 just said 2-4 for NYC and LI. They had that this morning... Never changed their forecast. I feel a lot of people are going to be caught off guard because of the Super Bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Most of us are in a great spot for this. Sit back and enjoy-the Super Bowl, brews, and the SECS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RAP looks amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Down to 44 in New Brunswick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Super Bowl and a SECS to look forward to. It's a good day to be a New Jersian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisnow666 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 1010 wins saying the same thing They may be right. Channel 7 has some decent weather people like Lee Goldberg though this young guy Smith did the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Halftime entrrtainment supplied by "smash hit" sref's with special guest the youve got nam'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RAP looks amazing... Going to be a fun time tomorrow. Lots of Gulf moisture and a potent system, not many ways to go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 not many ways to go wrong. That's what the guy said in Westworld...or thereabouts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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