Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yes. it's the 18z NAM, but the sounding drops 2/3" of freezing rain from this thing. Better than than the 0.7" of QPF of sleet it was showing yesterday....perhaps, but, once again, gonna be riding the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Slightly more digging of the northern stream wave and this thing ends up over DTW. Notwithstanding the ire I'll draw from the OH folks, I think giving up on a NAMesque like solution at this point is premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yes. it's the 18z NAM, but the sounding drops 2/3" of freezing rain from this thing. Better than than the 0.7" of QPF of sleet it was showing yesterday....perhaps, but, once again, gonna be riding the temps. Concerned about ice potential with this especially as it looks like winds will pick up after the storm if not during. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Slightly more digging of the northern stream wave and this thing ends up over DTW. Notwithstanding the ire I'll draw from the OH folks, I think giving up on a NAMesque like solution at this point is premature. i absolutely haven't given up on them but i'd like to see at least some better trends from the globals out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Slightly more digging of the northern stream wave and this thing ends up over DTW. Notwithstanding the ire I'll draw from the OH folks, I think giving up on a NAMesque like solution at this point is premature. Well, this is better than your southeast bias of recent vintage. Wagons northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 i absolutely haven't given up on them but i'd like to see at least some better trends from the globals out west My biggest concern is the way the GEM and EURO retrograde that piece of the PV that's initially over the Canadian Prairies back towards the BC/WA. Seems low probability, especially to that extent. If they're overdone even a bit, that's all it takes for the southern stream storm to come NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well, this is better than your southeast bias of recent vintage. Wagons northwest. Eh, over DTW was a bit of an exaggeration. It's possible I guess but I'm thinking more of a NAM vs the rest of the world compromise. And that's only if my suspicions about the retrograding s/w are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well, this is better than your southeast bias of recent vintage. Wagons northwest. I have to say, this years word of the year (wagons) is not as annoying as recent years (stat-padding, torch, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Not sure of his reasoning, but Chris Scott, who's one of the few mets. I genuinely have respect for in terms of weather knowledge, thinks NW is the way to go as well. https://twitter.com/ChrisScottWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Slightly more digging of the northern stream wave and this thing ends up over DTW. Notwithstanding the ire I'll draw from the OH folks, I think giving up on a NAMesque like solution at this point is premature. trust me, none of the ohio guys are discounting a nw solution....why the hell would we? We've been battered by it so many times. I think some here forget that we actually experience the sh*t side of the nw trend the most here...duh... And since we get hit with it the most, we watch for it the most. Would I rather be in LAF's position with this over CMH's, even as modeled right now?....umm yea, duh. That doesn't mean we aren't going to stop rooting on the southeast trend, no more than the Chi guys should stop rooting on the nam solution. It's all good. So yes, we are fully aware of that 800 lb gorilla that lives in the corner of the room with every storm coming up from the south. We just do our best not to stir him out his sleep. It's just hard to do with you noisy b*stards out west and up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 LOT doesn't lean one way or the other in their AFD but certainly sounds impressed with the potential. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT THEN SHIFTATTENTION TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A VORT MAX TO SWING ACROSS THESOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THENLIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILESURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THOUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL ASPECTS WORKING FOR IT...BRINGING POSSIBLESIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.THIS INCLUDES A FAIRLY STOUT MID LEVEL WAVE...PERSISTENT AND STRONGISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT...AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AS ITMOVES NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH LATESTGUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...STILL FEEL ITSA BIT EARLY TO GRASP ONTO ANYONE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. DID MAINTAINHIGH POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR THECWA TO OBSERVE PRECIP OF WHICH WOULD BE SNOW AT THIS TIME...BUT WITHLOWER CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOW AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH DO WANT TO STRESSTHAT THIS WARRANTS CONTINUED CLOSE MONITORING AS ONCE AGAIN THISCOULD IMPACT A WIDE AREA...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FORSTRONGER WINDS ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 trust me, none of the ohio guys are discounting a nw solution....why the hell would we? We've been battered by it so many times. I think some here forget that we actually experience the sh*t side of the nw trend the most here...duh... And since we get hit with it the most, we watch for it the most. Would I rather be in LAF's position with this over CMH's, even as modeled right now?....umm yea, duh. That doesn't mean we aren't going to stop rooting on the southeast trend, no more than the Chi guys should stop rooting on the nam solution. It's all good. So yes, we are fully aware of that 800 lb gorilla that lives in the corner of the room with every storm coming up from the south. We just do our best not to stir him out his sleep. It's just hard to do with you noisy b*stards out west and up north. lol, I know you guys are a hardy bunch. And at the end of the day, anyone can float a prediction. You've got the hard goods (the models) in your corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If this thing still looks like an ice storm over CMH I'm going to join the Chicago/LAF crew and root for a NW trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol, I know you guys are a hardy bunch. And at the end of the day, anyone can float a prediction. You've got the hard goods (the models) in your corner. gee thanks, it can get lonely down here in the south eastern flanks.... we're kinda the unpopular table in the school cafeteria. If it's good for us, it sucks for the other 80% of the forum. We need to recruit the PIT crowd and help level this puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If this thing still looks like an ice storm over CMH I'm going to join the Chicago/LAF crew and root for a NW trend! yea, Icestorms are exciting the day they occur, and than miserable for the next week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 gee thanks, it can get lonely down here in the south eastern flanks.... we're kinda the unpopular table in the school cafeteria. If it's good for us, it sucks for the other 80% of the forum. We need to recruit the PIT crowd and help level this puppy. gee thanks, it can get lonely down here in the south eastern flanks.... we're kinda the unpopular table in the school cafeteria. If it's good for us, it sucks for the other 80% of the forum. We need to recruit the PIT crowd and help level this puppy. We really do need to recruit the PIT folks. The I-95 crew doesn't like them, and the western NY crew doesn't care either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 APX things suppressed is the way to go THE FLOW REGIMEACROSS THE CONUS DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR ANY BIG NORTHERN SHIFTSWITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A DECENT NORTHERN STREAM BLOCK FOR A TIMEINTO MIDWEEK SUGGESTING A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION IS PROBABLY THEWAY TO GO. Needless to say 18z GEFS were lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DVN leaning towards a moderate, advisory type of event. Still early but that's pretty much what I think as well. Still a chance this could bump up to a heavy event though if things come together better. Liking the fact that the swath of cold sector precip is very broad, with no huge dropoffs on the north side like we've seen so many times this winter... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKINGOUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OPERATIONALMODELS CONSISTENT WITH THIS BEING AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIAWITH AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN IN OURSW CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINING OF THE CWA BYAFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTOWEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE. HIGH CATEGORICALPOPS ALREADY IN PLACE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE THETIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW TO OUR EAST AND A 1046MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAYINCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 70-80% chance of snow in my grid now. Thinking this will be a 3-6" event here. Not going to call too big at this point, given what happened with the departing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 yea, Icestorms are exciting the day they occur, and than miserable for the next week after. Yeah..2004 ice storm is still fresh in my mind..worse i have ever been through!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 will this be the run the NAM blinks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We really do need to recruit the PIT folks. The I-95 crew doesn't like them, and the western NY crew doesn't care either way. Yeah it'd be nice to even out the threads a bit since everything is so Chicago heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 will this be the run the NAM blinks? The NAM will blink. Then the GFS will blink. Then the Euro will blink. And then we'll look too 12Z run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 21z srefs for ORD show just how little support the NAM has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 northern stream appears to be digging more at H27 ...compared to the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 21z srefs for ORD show just how little support the NAM has 3-6" cluster isn't bad at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks pretty good at 39hr, maybe a little more phased. Look at the 546dm height contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks a hair slower overall with the evolution through H57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2mb stronger sfc low in northeast NM at 57hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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