February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[weathafella]

Consistent guidance for a system to enhance overrunning along the boundary between the cold and warm. All of us next week start on the good side and guidance brings a period if significant wintry qpf 2/5. As always, the big question is tainting and of course the further south and closer to the coast the higher the risk. Right now gfs and euro both bring plenty of front end to southern areas even far SE starts as snow. The low goes out under us or right over SE ma but more likely as depicted as a triple point.

In my view, the best widespread threat in a long time.

Let the weeneeing begin!

[Ginx snewx]

Consistent guidance for a system to enhance overrunning along the boundary between the cold and warm. All of us next week start on the good side and guidance brings a period if significant wintry qpf 2/5. As always, the big question is tainting and of course the further south and closer to the coast the higher the risk. Right now gfs and euro both bring plenty of front end to southern areas even far SE starts as snow. The low goes out under us or right over SE ma but more likely as depicted as a triple point.

In my view, the best widespread threat in a long time.

Let the weeneeing begin!

Tremendous ice storm after heavy snow on 6Z GFS for just off the coast

[Ginx snewx]

Jerry I want you to start the blizzard birthday redeaux thread if it materializes please.

[Cold Miser]

I lol'd (at the hype):

http://northeastusweather.com/2014/01/30/a-significant-winter-storm-to-affect-over-50-million-people/

[weathafella]

If it's in the books Monday I'll fire it up Steve. Let's hope the good luck lasts.

[Ginx snewx]

If it's in the books Monday I'll fire it up Steve. Let's hope the good luck lasts.

Odd that you mentioned 07 because this has that 12/13/07 appeal or maybe even Valentines day 07, ugh , sleetmageddon. Be afraid of the ice be very afraid.

[TalcottWx]

If it's in the books Monday I'll fire it up Steve. Let's hope the good luck lasts.

Can I ask a stupid and ignorant question? Who is that in your avatar?

[mahk_webstah]

This storm could be quite the mauler.  From Chicago straight on over to NYC and BOS.  Chicago has had one helluva winter.  And then we get a follow up storm.  When you see this kind of qpf modelled I think you just have to let go of every model run to some extent.  I think CNE and NNE will get 3-4 ft of snow by Feb 15.  And I don't think that is particularly bold.  And SNE probably does almost as well.

[toller65]

Can I ask a stupid and ignorant question? Who is that in your avatar?

Always reminds me of Festus from that old western TV show Gunsmoke....

[Ginx snewx]

yea this might be the first time I have seen this much snow on a Wunderground Euro panel, yikes, Congrats Dendrite

[Ginx snewx]

This storm could be quite the mauler.  From Chicago straight on over to NYC and BOS.  Chicago has had one helluva winter.  And then we get a follow up storm.  When you see this kind of qpf modelled I think you just have to let go of every model run to some extent.  I think CNE and NNE will get 3-4 ft of snow by Feb 15.  And I don't think that is particularly bold.  And SNE probably does almost as well.

Epicosity yea thats right PF

[Cold Miser]

Epicosity yea thats right PF

You know how I get with these potential snow to rain systems. I'm kind of like Ray, I want it all and I want it BIG, or it becomes meh to me.  Unless of course one of the following happens:  a storm with mega-snow, followed by only a light rain, or rain followed by mega snow.  There's just been too much rain this winter.

[weathafella]

If it's in the books Monday I'll fire it up Steve. Let's hope the good luck lasts.

Can I ask a stupid and ignorant question? Who is that in your avatar?

Jay, I picked that avatar of all those available when I signed up on wwbb in October 2001.

[TalcottWx]

Wow, finally got to see 6z GFS. Awesome looking.

[HimoorWx]

Jay, I picked that avatar of all those available when I signed up on wwbb in October 2001.

For some reason I always thought it was Pancho Villa.

[weathafella]

Jay, I picked that avatar of all those available when I signed up on wwbb in October 2001.

For some reason I always thought it was Pancho Villa.

I think it is.

[dryslot]

This next one has that 6-10" look to it as most SWFE/hybrids do

[weathafella]

This next one has that 6-10" look to it as most SWFE/hybrids do

A few of those and you get a durable pack even moving deeper into February.

[dendrite]

This next one has that 6-10" look to it as most SWFE/hybrids do

Yeah...any weenie snow map that uses maxT in the column for an algorithm will probably overpredict totals/ratios in these WAA overrunning setups. Usually the best lift is below the max DGZ since we have WAA aloft. If it's really cold at the onset sometimes we can crank out better ratios. I've found that usually correlates with 2m temps below 10F to 15F...sometimes even colder. There was a weaker SWFE a couple years ago (I think after the Jan arctic shot in 2011), that gave me great ratios while 2m temps were below zero. With an isothermal or warming layer up to H7 that put the entire low levels in the max DGZ.

[bobbutts]

Looks solid on the last 4 GFS runs.  Happy to see it relatively consistently modeled at this point.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah...any weenie snow map that uses maxT in the column for an algorithm will probably overpredict totals/ratios in these WAA overrunning setups. Usually the best lift is below the max DGZ since we have WAA aloft. If it's really cold at the onset sometimes we can crank out better ratios. I've found that usually correlates with 2m temps below 10F to 15F...sometimes even colder. There was a weaker SWFE a couple years ago (I think after the Jan arctic shot in 2011), that gave me great ratios while 2m temps were below zero. With an isothermal or warming layer up to H7 that put the entire low levels in the max DGZ.

was 12/13/07 a SWFE?

[dryslot]

Yeah...any weenie snow map that uses maxT in the column for an algorithm will probably overpredict totals/ratios in these WAA overrunning setups. Usually the best lift is below the max DGZ since we have WAA aloft. If it's really cold at the onset sometimes we can crank out better ratios. I've found that usually correlates with 2m temps below 10F to 15F...sometimes even colder. There was a weaker SWFE a couple years ago (I think after the Jan arctic shot in 2011), that gave me great ratios while 2m temps were below zero. With an isothermal or warming layer up to H7 that put the entire low levels in the max DGZ.

 

Just going by this from 2007/08 when we had quite a few of these types of events, My core samples were mainly in the 7-10:1 range

[Zeus]

A few of those and you get a durable pack even moving deeper into February.

 

I know you're feeling this one, but I am not.

 

I think we see a good bit of our precip in liquid form. Give me the 2/9 storm or give me meth.

[Sn0waddict]

We are officially calling this a SWFE now? Ugh.

[Ginx snewx]

I know you're feeling this one, but I am not.

 

I think we see a good bit of our precip in liquid form. Give me the 2/9 storm or give me meth.

Thumpidity dumper with ice then a rip roaring coastal will keep me high for weeks, thats the plan

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

yea this might be the first time I have seen this much snow on a Wunderground Euro panel, yikes, Congrats Dendrite

That doesn't look horrible. Odd how southeast ma holds on to more snow than Connecticut, that doesn't seem right

[Zeus]

Thumpidity dumper with ice then a rip roaring coastal will keep me high for weeks, thats the plan

 

Yeah, maybe ice for you, but I see a quick 5"-7" then pounded down by rain into 3" of cement for me.

 

I'm not into ptype issues, but I understand that every now and then, our brethren to the north need love too.

 

Enjoy up there.

[ORH_wxman]

was 12/13/07 a SWFE?

 

 

Yes...there were a few 10-12" maxes in that one. But usually taking the under is the way to go. I will add that this one is pretty juiced right now...both on the actual guidance QPF and the mid-level level advection of gulf moisture...so it could morph into a more robust SWFE.

 

 

In addition this could end up with some significant FZRA in the interior if a more northwest mid-level track materializes.

[Ginx snewx]

That doesn't look horrible. Odd how southeast ma holds on to more snow than Connecticut, that doesn't seem right

SWFE, dumfounded

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, maybe ice for you, but I see a quick 5"-7" then pounded down by rain into 3" of cement for me.

 

I'm not into ptype issues, but I understand that every now and then, our brethren to the north need love too.

 

Enjoy up there.

Your latitude helps more than mine on the GFS you have 8-10 before a flip while I am 6-8