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A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I thought the euro went south. I still think its not ginna do much north of the beaches of the s coast.

yea well yes and no, it went south with the northern extent of the .1 stuff but beefed up the QPF northward in NJ LI, the GFS has come about 150 miles north in 24 hours, now scraping SNE with precip, lets see how this evolves.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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yea well yes and no, it went south with the northern extent of the .1 stuff but beefed up the QPF northward in NJ LI, the GFS has come about 150 miles north in 24 hours, now scraping SNE with precip, lets see how this evolves.

 

The precip probs on the EC ensemble keep ticking south too.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The 00z Feb 1st guidance continued to show two potential major winter storms for the region...the first one becoming very likely on February 5th. The 00z ensmeble guidance across all model was a bit colder and further south suggesting a snowier scenario...and less ice...however, given we are still about 4 days out, this has time to change yet again. (see running Feb 5th thread)

 

 

The 2nd potential larger scale winter storm still is strong on ensemble guidance for Feb 8-9. The latest ECMWF ensemble mean tracks a significant system into the Ohio Valley with secondary coastal cyclogenesis near the Delmarva. There was considerable spread amongst the members which is to be expected atthis time range.

 

 

Near the end of the period covered in this thread, the 00z guidance has continued a subtle shift seen the last couple cycles toward a -NAO/-PNA/-WPO pattern...the -NAO being the more subtle shift. If the -NAO can become a more significant feature in this pattern heading into middle February, then the outlook would continue to be a cold/snowy outlook for New England...such similar patterns of -WPO/-PNA/-NAO occured in February 1969, early February 1979, and late February 1956.

 

A stronger positive NAO could result in a milder period such as the one seen from Feb 15-20, 1994....the details remain to be seen and they matter a lot.

 

12z GFS has a major major impactor for D4.5/5 -- short but truly massive:

 

post-904-0-17390000-1391281172_thumb.jpg

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This could turn out to be a memorable 10 days if things break right... 

 

We used to have a saying ... 'first it gets warm, then it gets cold, BOOM'

 

GFS looks footy up along Rt 2, with a pounding sleet storm in CT/RI above the SC at mid week... all adjustable.  Then the system at 180 or so has bumped E with more commitment to Miller B design.   

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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This could turn out to be a memorable 10 days if things break right... 

 

We used to have a saying ... 'first it gets warm, then it gets cold, BOOM'

 

GFS looks footy up along Rt 2, with a pounding sleet storm in CT/RI above the SC at mid week... all adjustable.  Then the system at 180 or so has bumped E with more commitment to Miller B design.   

 

 

The Feb 8-9 system continues to gain traction on the ensemble guidance. The 18z GEFS guidance has become more bullish...and the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean was positioning a sfc low south of LI for 12z Feb 9th.

 

Feb1_12z_ECensemble.png

 

 

 

There is still a fair amount of spread of course, but it has certainly narrowed in the last couple days...and will likely continue to do so.

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

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The Feb 8-9 system continues to gain traction on the ensemble guidance. The 18z GEFS guidance has become more bullish...and the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean was positioning a sfc low south of LI for 12z Feb 9th.

 

Feb1_12z_ECensemble.png

 

 

 

There is still a fair amount of spread of course, but it has certainly narrowed in the last couple days...and will likely continue to do so.

 

I may not be one of the better amatuers on this site, but comparisons to PDII have been thrown around in the NYC thread. teleconnectors really are not too favorable for a big east coast storm but in my opinion the key to this storm actually bringing potentially wide spread snows from DC-BOSTON is what is going to happen with that storm mid week thereafter. IF that storm can take the 50/50 position that "should" lock up that HP in SE Canada from sliding east and force redevelopment off the Delmarva and keep the warm air surge to a minimum down to even the coastal areas. the models that are driving the primary to Detroit (12z GFS) today just didn't make sense UNLESS there is nothing to anchor that HP in SE Canada. the EURO I like to track this storm as ive found it to be more consistent with the southern stream systems and it did pretty good thus far with the Monday threat and may be onto something with the Wednesday threat picking up the CAD. as I said this is just my educated opinion as of now. I would like to hear your thoughts on what I posted ORH

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I may not be one of the better amatuers on this site, but comparisons to PDII have been thrown around in the NYC thread. teleconnectors really are not too favorable for a big east coast storm but in my opinion the key to this storm actually bringing potentially wide spread snows from DC-BOSTON is what is going to happen with that storm mid week thereafter. IF that storm can take the 50/50 position that "should" lock up that HP in SE Canada from sliding east and force redevelopment off the Delmarva and keep the warm air surge to a minimum down to even the coastal areas. the models that are driving the primary to Detroit (12z GFS) today just didn't make sense UNLESS there is nothing to anchor that HP in SE Canada. the EURO I like to track this storm as ive found it to be more consistent with the southern stream systems and it did pretty good thus far with the Monday threat and may be onto something with the Wednesday threat picking up the CAD. as I said this is just my educated opinion as of now. I would like to hear your thoughts on what I posted ORH

 

 

I don't see PDII as a great analog to the Feb 9th threat, at least right now...there are a few similarities, however, the pattern to the north is not the same as that storm. There is currently less of an arctic high anchored to the north on guidance...however that could still change. There is some east-based -NAO ridging showing up that could try and pin the PV further southeast than it currently modeled. IF that is the case as we get closer, then the storm could take on more of a PDII synoptic setup...I try to avoid historic storm analogs in general until it becomes more clear that such comparisons are warranted since it often will get people's expectations up. The flow during PDII was quite slow as it was southern stream dominated...as it often the case during El Nino winters (esp February)....that is one reason so much snow fell along the east coast. It would be hard to get a storm moving that slowly in this pattern.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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What is a 50/50 storm?

A 50/50 low is a storm that is positioned around the latitude/longitude of 50/50.  It can act as a block/confluence to force systems to move out S of the New England coastline.  It is one key feature needed for larger east coast systems.  Here is a representation of it.

 

post-238-0-48888200-1391304755_thumb.jpg

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