earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 SREFs usually come in after 8pm, NAM starts around 9. GFS 1030, others follow and Euro 1245. This is the last model suite where we would observe any significant changes. Starting tomorrow morning we can utilize the HRRR, RAP and other short term mesoscale guidance. Good luck to everyone, hope you all get the snow you wished for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 The SREF are just crushing us now. New 21z run are even farther north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The SREF are just crushing us now. New 21z run are even farther north and west. John stop posting porn on this site haha that looks amazing though. Im stoked to be on LI where the heaviest snow should set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Big spread to the left here still.The mean has 0.50" QPF northwest of High Point NJ so I would assume amounts near NYC are closer to 0.6 or 0.75. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/21/sref_namer_033_mslp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Exciting developments today regardless. Yesterday 1" if were lucky and now 2 KU's in one month thus far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'll just leave this here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here are my latest thoughts on the system: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The SREF are just crushing us now. New 21z run are even farther north and west. Heck ya!!! Great start to the night for all and the Great NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nice title John! About to dig into the SREF until the NAM comes out later. Curious to see what the ratio output is. Using GS4 Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here are my latest thoughts on the system: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ Hey John, Very nice article. I saw this and wanted to let you know : "These thoughts are subject to change but they are hte best idea we have moving forward tonight. Just a note that this was written prior to the 00z model suite. " "the" is spelled wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here are my latest thoughts on the system: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ Good write up Earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just going off the SREF's, I think tonight's Nam could show quite the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here are my latest thoughts on the system: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ Nice article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here are my latest thoughts on the system: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ great write up, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Still getting wrap around snows at 15z-18z WED per latest SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Some members must really be juiced up snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I actually dont remember the sref ever continuing to tick north west each of its runs. I think in past storms there would always be back and forth or slight adjustments south east. So it is nice they continue trending toward us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Still getting wrap around snows at 15z-18z WED per latest SREF's so does that mean 10AM to 1PM Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just looking at the SREF, I think we have a decent chance of getting completely NAM'd in a little while. Using GS4 Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 so does that mean 10AM to 1PM Wednesday? By now, you'd think one could figure it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here are my latest thoughts on the system: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ Great read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 BLM .74 LGA .70 JFK .68 NYC .70 Slight tick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 As a writer Here are my latest thoughts on the system: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ As a writer Im highly impressed, stylistically quite sound. You make a complex science seem palatble to the developed amateur & likely comprehensible to a total novice. ((pat on the back)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just looking at the SREF, I think we have a decent chance of getting completely NAM'd in a little while. Using GS4 Tapatalk If the GFS and ECM follows up on that, then I may need surgery for my jaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 so does that mean 10AM to 1PM Wednesday? http://www.spacearchive.info/utc.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 so does that mean 10AM to 1PM Wednesday? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think everyone on Long Island will now see at least ten inches of snow. There is a 50% chance Central Park will surpass their average yearly snowfall when this storm has finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think everyone on Long Island will now see at least ten inches of snow. There is a 50% chance Central Park will surpass their average yearly snowfall when this storm has finished. I would not bet on it yet, but it looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM shortwave even so early on looks more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Beautiful write-up earth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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