1/21 Redeveloping Clipper Storm

[DDweatherman]

Phone is going to die soon, and am not by a charger. So, I am going to open this topic and leave it open for later. Superb luck in my life is translating as I said it might. Hope its ok Ian. Lock until its needed. Also someone create a funny subtitle.

[AdamHLG]

How about "the best pattern in years actually doesn't suck" storm

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[snow.]

guidance is very uniform, though always a little concerned about N trend limiting amounts....models may be a bit too wet for a northern stream system...not sure where the 8-10 totals will be but N-NW is obviously the best best for best banding....

 

As far as temps, I think we are fine...may start at 29-32, but once it gets going 26-29 at worst and probably dropping

[wxmeddler]

WSW for our friends just N the M/D line now.

[Ji]

its very warm but it appears that the 850 temps are safely below freezing despite the surface

[mitchnick]

guidance is very uniform, though always a little concerned about N trend limiting amounts....models may be a bit too wet for a northern stream system...not sure where the 8-10 totals will be but N-NW is obviously the best best for best banding....

 

As far as temps, I think we are fine...may start at 29-32, but once it gets going 26-29 at worst and probably dropping

Matt, I think those last few hours of snow will be pure fluff and add an extra inch or two out of seemingly nothing qpf

it happens like that all the time in NE as the systems pull away and we have ideal conditions with the fresh arctic air

of course, then it starts to blow around  

[Ian]

guidance is very uniform, though always a little concerned about N trend limiting amounts....models may be a bit too wet for a northern stream system...not sure where the 8-10 totals will be but N-NW is obviously the best best for best banding....

 

As far as temps, I think we are fine...may start at 29-32, but once it gets going 26-29 at worst and probably dropping

HRRR is a little cool to start but gets everyone to or below freezing just after midnight.  Today's temps may impact roads etc for a while until we get into better rates.  It's a torch out there.. I don't think models had DC hitting 60 today.

 

[snow.]

HRRR is a little cool to start but gets everyone to or below freezing just after midnight.  Today's temps may impact roads etc for a while until we get into better rates.  It's a torch out there.. I don't think models had DC hitting 60 today.

 

hrrr_t2m_washdc_16.png

 

I am not sure some brief downsloping should matter..was 26 yesterday morning...plus it isn't february...I think we will be fine...but maybe you're right and a brief delay

[wxmeddler]

[Ji]

how come we always bust warm by 10 degrees?

[nj2va]

17z RAP has DCA at 58 at 2pm (actual ob is 59). 30 at 6am.

[NeffsvilleWx]

The weather service that my employer pays for is predicting 6-10" in Hunt Valley.

[ravensrule]

The weather service that my employer pays for is predicting 6-10" in Hunt Valley.

A little high maybe but sounds pretty reasonable.

[yoda]

15z SREFs =

 

0.5+ QPF

[nj2va]

15z SREFs = nice

Yup, 0.5" for pretty much our subforum. Plumes not out yet.

[EasternUSWX]

Models mailing it in now... they are like f it, big storm coming.

 

[cpasi]

Yup, 0.5" for pretty much our subforum. Plumes not out yet.

what was it last time...?

[84 Hour NAM]

I think this is the closest I've ever seen all guidance on QPF totals

[Birds~69]

17z RAP has DCA at 58 at 2pm (actual ob is 59). 30 at 6am.

 

Only 41.8 in SE PA so yeah you guys are cooking. Predicted high is 45.

[ravensrule]

17z RAP has DCA at 58 at 2pm (actual ob is 59). 30 at 6am.

I am at 45.9 here so DCA is really toasting.

[clskinsfan]

Anybody see the mid levels on the Euro? I dont have access to it.

[BTRWx]

I think this is the closest I've ever seen all guidance on QPF totals

Quite remarkable consistency in the last couple of runs

[needbiggerboat]

Yup, 0.5" for pretty much our subforum. Plumes not out yet.

 

I'd guess there are a few showing crazy high numbers, 25+.

[lsukev]

its very warm but it appears that the 850 temps are safely below freezing despite the surface

 

JYO showing 49 with a 30 degree 850 at 1pm per Euro

[KAOS]

The agreement amongst models in regards to QPF is kind of unusual.

[chris87]

JYO showing 49 with a -1 850 at 1pm.  Crazy disparity.  

 

ETA: Per 12z ECMWF of course

 

not really, -1C at 850 fully mixed out gets you to the mid 50s

[wxmeddler]

Solid:

[WxMan1]

0.50" = 7.5"at a 15-1 ratio.  I believe widespread 5-8" is a solid bet given the cooling surface layer through the day and optimal lift/moisture profile in the dendritic growth layer.

[clskinsfan]

Here is the GFS FWIW:

 

DCA:

 

140121/1500Z 27 04012KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
140121/1800Z 30 03014KT 21.6F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 16:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0
140121/2100Z 33 01016KT 17.9F SNOW 21:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 19:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
140122/0000Z 36 35016KT 15.3F SNOW 21:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118 19:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140122/0300Z 39 34016KT 12.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0
140122/0600Z 42 33014KT 9.8F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 17:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

 

140121/1500Z 27 03014KT 21.1F SNOW 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
140121/1800Z 30 03017KT 19.3F SNOW 19:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 18:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0
140121/2100Z 33 01018KT 16.6F SNOW 20:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 19:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0
140122/0000Z 36 36019KT 14.8F SNOW 21:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.132 20:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140122/0300Z 39 34019KT 11.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089 17:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0
140122/0600Z 42 33019KT 7.8F SNOW 21:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 17:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

 

140121/1500Z 27 04011KT 19.8F SNOW 16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0
140121/1800Z 30 03013KT 17.7F SNOW 19:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 18:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0
140121/2100Z 33 01014KT 14.8F SNOW 25:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 21:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0
140122/0000Z 36 34014KT 13.2F SNOW 15:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 20:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140122/0300Z 39 34015KT 11.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 18:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

 

140121/1200Z 24 06008KT 18.9F SNOW 17:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 17:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140121/1500Z 27 05011KT 16.8F SNOW 18:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 18:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0
140121/1800Z 30 03013KT 14.6F SNOW 25:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.131 21:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0
140121/2100Z 33 01013KT 13.4F SNOW 22:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 22:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
140122/0000Z 36 34012KT 12.8F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 21:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140122/0300Z 39 34014KT 11.2F SNOW 26:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 22:1| 9.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0

[Disc]

clskinsfan, on 20 Jan 2014 - 2:39 PM, said:

Here is the GFS FWIW:

 

DCA:

 

140121/1500Z 27 04012KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0

140121/1800Z 30 03014KT 21.6F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 16:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0

140121/2100Z 33 01016KT 17.9F SNOW 21:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 19:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0

140122/0000Z 36 35016KT 15.3F SNOW 21:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118 19:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140122/0300Z 39 34016KT 12.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0

140122/0600Z 42 33014KT 9.8F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 17:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

 

140121/1500Z 27 03014KT 21.1F SNOW 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0

140121/1800Z 30 03017KT 19.3F SNOW 19:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 18:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0

140121/2100Z 33 01018KT 16.6F SNOW 20:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 19:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0

140122/0000Z 36 36019KT 14.8F SNOW 21:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.132 20:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140122/0300Z 39 34019KT 11.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089 17:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0

140122/0600Z 42 33019KT 7.8F SNOW 21:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 17:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

 

140121/1500Z 27 04011KT 19.8F SNOW 16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0

140121/1800Z 30 03013KT 17.7F SNOW 19:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 18:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

140121/2100Z 33 01014KT 14.8F SNOW 25:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 21:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0

140122/0000Z 36 34014KT 13.2F SNOW 15:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 20:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140122/0300Z 39 34015KT 11.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 18:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

 

140121/1200Z 24 06008KT 18.9F SNOW 17:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 17:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140121/1500Z 27 05011KT 16.8F SNOW 18:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 18:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0

140121/1800Z 30 03013KT 14.6F SNOW 25:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.131 21:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0

140121/2100Z 33 01013KT 13.4F SNOW 22:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 22:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0

140122/0000Z 36 34012KT 12.8F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 21:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140122/0300Z 39 34014KT 11.2F SNOW 26:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 22:1| 9.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0

 

Can I have the link to these text outputs?