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1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

DDweatherman

By DDweatherman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

Hope this isn't one our all time greatest backfires as Happy Gilmore would say. 

Ian gave you your thread back. If this underperforms you are never going to live it down. Just saying :P - Ian has a longggg history of giving us a high thread to overperformance ratio ;)

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

12z RGEM looks interesting enough at 48 with its h5 depiction and what looks to be a SLP off NC coast

yep, looking at the 700MB rh map, it wants to snow on us after 48 hrs

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif

actually has snow breaking out by the 48 hr. map

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c36_100.gif

 

won't be a big deal, but maybe we can get a scrawny inch out of it

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

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yep, looking at the 700MB rh map, it wants to snow on us after 48 hrs

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif

actually has snow breaking out by the 48 hr. map

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c36_100.gif

 

won't be a big deal, but maybe we can get a scrawny inch out of it

Eh with 16:1 or better ratios, think 2-3" is not entirely impossible. 

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
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Yeah, I'd take the 5". Plus it's pretty much impossible for an inch of snow to last more than like 2 days around here.

With the temps we have this week 2" should stick around the whole time. Eh i just checked the temps it looks like Saturday we should get above freezing, I will take the 5".

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
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How are snowfall ratios determined? Is it based on where the snow is formed or is it based on ground temperature or is it more complicated than that? (sorry if this belongs in the banter thread)

It's a good question as it is somewhat dependent on both.  Warm graound temps will make some of the snow melt but once the ground temp gets much below 32, ratios are more dependent on the temp within the column where the bulk of the snow is forming and on ho wmuch cloud water there is in the cloud.  Clippers don't have much cloud water so you don't have to worry about riming on the flakes.  You generally have nice crystals.  We'd prefer that they be dendrites which form in the cloud at around minus 15C. 

 

The Euro gives us a couple hundreds so it's on the low end of the qpf spectrum while the ukmet is on the really heavy side. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
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It's a good question as it is somewhat dependent on both. Warm graound temps will make some of the snow melt but once the ground temp gets much below 32, ratios are more dependent on the temp within the column where the bulk of the snow is forming and on ho wmuch cloud water there is in the cloud. Clippers don't have much cloud water so you don't have to worry about riming on the flakes. You generally have nice crystals. We'd prefer that they be dendrites which form in the cloud at around minus 15C.

The Euro gives us a couple hundreds so it's on the low end of the qpf spectrum while the ukmet is on the really heavy side.

Do you know the QPF on the UKIE Wes? Like 0.3?

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