Ian Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 congrats coastal areasand.. north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Son of Vortex longer lasting but I don't think as windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I just posted in the pattern thread. I still need the manual emailed. We're in a short lead pattern and the potential is evident. One of these b!itches is going to pop for us. A 2-4" cold smoke with instant street stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I believe what Mr Bob said. By this time next Friday will will have some snowcover and bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I believe what Mr Bob said. By this time next Friday will will have some snowcover and bitter cold. Once we go below freezing Monday night how many consecutive days will we stay below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Son of Vortex longer lasting but I don't think as windy. Yeah.. haven't seen as impressive of low temp potential yet but the duration is a big difference. As cold as the last shot was it was in and out in like 30 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Even just 1" of widespread snow cover would bring those day and night values down 3-5*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Today appears it will perform.. temps struggling most spots, tho DCA has hit 32. Of course midnight highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Today appears it will perform.. temps struggling most spots, tho DCA has hit 32. Of course midnight highs. Yup. Been sitting at 20F for the last 3 hours. Midnight high was 33F here in Clarksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Going car shopping this weekend. Glad I was persistent on "not Saturday". 29.7 with gusts to the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 no real change in temps at noon.. might not get much higher. sneaky cold day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Midnight high of 33, 25 now with a WC of 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Got a shade above 30 not long ago. Will go into the books as a 36.3° high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Cheap midnight high, no where near reflective of the remainder of the 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Many years ago when I got the Daily Weather Maps publication via snail mail the max/min temperature period used for it was 7am to 7am. When did that change, or is 7am/7am still used for some recording purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140119&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=38.65522334779628&mLON=-79.5139662109375&mTYP=roadmap SREF's. A weenie's model of choice. Obviously the two above 15 inches are on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140119&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=38.65522334779628&mLON=-79.5139662109375&mTYP=roadmap SREF's. A weenie's model of choice. Obviously the two above 15 inches are on to something? No they are not. This is not a case where we're going to get .75 liquid. Getting 0.1 to 0.2 liquid equivalent would be a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 This is not a bad h5 depiction, with the trough orientation setting up in almost an optimal spot for I95 areas to get some enhancement from the SLP deepening. Definitely agree w/Wes and Bob on this one having a little potential, but pretty likely 1-2" is a lock at this point if runs can hold. There is that upside though with the trough slowly getting better oriented for us each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The GFS doesn't look too bad. nice vort with a low popping off the coast. Not much moisture but no one is expecting that much. Any QPF more than 0.1 probalby would get us 1.5 to 2 inches. If the GFS and NAM are right, it should look wintery on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Will it melt or sublimate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Some models on board for an areawide 1-2" for Tuesday with high ratio snow looking likely. 20-1's this time around could be possible, Wes agrees. Upside potential with coastal low deepening off of Atlantic (OXB/ORF) coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Bernie Rayno on board. https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/424936112000208897 Looks like this is worth going all in. Anyone have thoughts to possible start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 UKMET from last night was respectable .1+ M/D line south. Randomly .3 in NVA. Nice run, lets see if 12z continues to look impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Some models on board for an areawide 1-2" for Tuesday with high ratio snow looking likely. 20-1's this time around could be possible, Wes agrees. Upside potential with coastal low deepening off of Atlantic (OXB/ORF) coast. I don't think there is a whole lot of upside with the clipper. If we get 0.20" liquid which is on the high end of what is probably possible there could be a stripe where someone get 3 or 4 inches but I sure wouldn't yet forecast that as there also is the possibility that the NAM's QPF or last night's euro could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I don't think there is a whole lot of upside with the clipper. If we get 0.20" liquid which is on the high end of what is probably possible there could be a stripe where someone get 3 or 4 inches but I sure wouldn't yet forecast that as there also is the possibility that the NAM's QPF or last night's euro could be right. Understood wes, I should clarify: .2" is about the upside I had in mind with a low enhancing us a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Understood wes, I should clarify: .2" is about the upside I had in mind with a low enhancing us a bit. Per 12z GFS the coastal enhancement gives DE and SNJ maybe 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm mobile I'll change the title later go to UVVS thread if this is all too confusing http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42481-121-clipper-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 No they are not. This is not a case where we're going to get .75 liquid. Getting 0.1 to 0.2 liquid equivalent would be a victory. Sarcasm. I would consider an inch a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 MOS tests our coldest high of the year on Wednesday in DC. Euro a smidge warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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