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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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Best day of the year so far for me... no one here at all.  5-6" at the base and 8-10" at the summit.  Still snowing.  38" at 3,000ft in the past 7 days.

 

I have no idea what happened last night but it freakin' dumped.

 

Drifts on the sides of the trails...bigger drifts from this "non-event" than the big "blizzard" lol.

 

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Its all knee deep in the woods on top of the more dense layer from yestereday's warm weather.

 

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Its like being in candy land out there today.

 

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Looks great.  People are nuts, the same folks that packed Killington in October to pick their way down an overcrowded wrod are probably now crying about lack of golf and beaches.

 

I was out at Dartmouth Skiway for the first time on Saturday.  With a summit only around 2k'  the warmer temps softened and slowed the surface a bit much.  Interesting weather with some sun and some showers with a variety of frozen precip.  Some just plain IP, some melted/re-frozen flakes, maybe graupel and hail too, not sure how to identify all of them.

 

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Best day of the year so far for me... no one here at all.  5-6" at the base and 8-10" at the summit.  Still snowing.  38" at 3,000ft in the past 7 days.

 

I have no idea what happened last night but it freakin' dumped.

 

Drifts on the sides of the trails...bigger drifts from this "non-event" than the big "blizzard" lol.

 

Yeah, that was the sort of event we haven’t had as much of this season, but it’s helping this March keep up with its redeeming ways – it brought the snowfall here to within a foot of average, and in terms of deviation from the mean, it’s the closest we’ve been since the turn of the year.

 

The north to south listing of available snowfall totals from this event at the Vermont ski areas are below:

 

Jay Peak: 3”

Burke: 2”

Smuggler’s Notch: 4”

Stowe: 9”

Bolton Valley: 6”

Mad River Glen: 5”

Sugarbush: 5”

Middlebury: 0”

Suicide Six: 0”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Magic Mountain: 0”

Stratton: 2”

Mount Snow: 3”

 

Accumulations really fell off in the southern half of the state, and the Smugg’s through Sugarbush stretch was really quite the place to be today for fresh snow, with accumulations peaking in the Mt. Mansfield area.  There were certainly no complaints being at Stowe today as the Northern Greens try to make up ground from snowfall deficits earlier in the season:

 

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Nice shots, J.Spin!  I was talking with some friends and thought I saw you, E and the boys in the Spruce base area around noon, heading into Spruce Camp probably for lunch.  Its funny because I recognized the ski jackets we see in the photos, as well as in the Bolton Valley advertisements. 

 

Looks like you went for a hike, must've been a great day for it.  I haven't been up top since the big storm, but Profanity looked like it had been loaded in and was about as wide as it gets.  Your photo looks like something from out west.

 

 

And the Hazelton zone has been skiing very nicely lately.  I went in there first run after the big storm last week, and it really opens up once the base develops.  As is the case in a lot of Green Mountain forests, once you put down a 3-6 foot base, everything seems to really open up, as opposed to the more densely packed spruce/fir forests in the Adirondacks and Whites.  Even hardwood forests in the Adirondacks though seem much more densely packed than the hardwoods in Vermont. 

 

 

Overall, March is certainly going to go down as the best ski month (as it should, although some recent years its been hit or miss) in this area this season...especially seeing as the cold is going nowhere and there are a couple snow chances in the next week.

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Looks dry and sunny the next couple days, before additional chances for snow on Wed/Wed night in sort of a SWFE type look with CAD east of the Spine.  Then there's the chance for some other light to moderate event to traverse the area next weekend.

 

Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent.

 

Thursday Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

 

Thursday Night Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the lower 20s.

 

Friday Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid 30s.

 

Friday Night Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows around 20.

 

Saturday Snow likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

 

Saturday Night Snow likely. Lows 10 to 15. Chance of snow 60 percent.

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So yesterday I drove to Boston to record the last of a few songs for an upcoming album I am working on and it was pretty tough going through the Greens. The snow at 5-6am was still moderate to heavy at times with I-89 completely snow covered. I couldn't help but think of how good the skiing probably was. I am hoping to go a couple of more times before the season ends.

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COLDEST ST. PATRICK`S DAY ON RECORD (129 YEARS, -6 IN 1885) IN
BURLINGTON WHERE WE HIT -8 SO FAR. CHECK BACK A LITTLE LATER TO
SEE IF IT GOT ANY LOWER AND FOR OTHER RECORDS.

DID SEE A -29 AT LAKE PLACID AND SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) NY, -25 AT SUTTON
VT, -20 MILTON,VT -19 NASHVILLE VT.

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Bobbutts--nice Dartmouth Skiway shot.  The Upper Valley is my hood and I'd recognize that shot of Smarts Mountain anywhere.  Bet the frost heaves going out the Dorchester Rd were bone-jarring.  ;)  That road is always one of the worst, locally.

 

I was pruning apple trees for some clients only a couple crow-miles away on Saturday--the Goose Pond valley, just a bit south of the Skiway.

 

Anyway, cold continues, obviously.  Had a -11F yesterday, -9F as I type this morning.  While it's been cold, I would guess that Morch from two years ago was way more anomalous than is this cold snap.  Just a hunch.

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Anyway, cold continues, obviously.  Had a -11F yesterday, -9F as I type this morning.  While it's been cold, I would guess that Morch from two years ago was way more anomalous than is this cold snap.  Just a hunch.

 

Yeah, certainly, though this March so far is giving the whole "Mother Nature loves her averages" saying a boost of confidence.

 

We'll see where it shakes out.  MVL was +10.3F for March 2012, and through March 17th, this year is -13.3F.  That will  certainly come up over the next several days, but if we do get another cold shot of -20C H85 air back in here over the last week of the month, the negative monthly departure could be pretty special. 

 

Anyway, solid inversion this morning... I've been seeing anywhere from +6F to +11F up at the summit level, and its -11F down in town.  Currently +1F at 1,500ft.

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Yeah, certainly, though this March so far is giving the whole "Mother Nature loves her averages" saying a boost of confidence.

 

We'll see where it shakes out.  MVL was +10.3F for March 2012, and through March 17th, this year is -13.3F.  That will  certainly come up over the next several days, but if we do get another cold shot of -20C H85 air back in here over the last week of the month, the negative monthly departure could be pretty special. 

 

Anyway, solid inversion this morning... I've been seeing anywhere from +6F to +11F up at the summit level, and its -11F down in town.  Currently +1F at 1,500ft.

I'd be VERY happy if this March and April averaged out. Really cold march. Really warm april. Perfect IMO. 

 

Looks like there are three solid chances for snow upcoming. 

Wed-thursday looks like upper elevations might see a nice dose of snow. WRF is very moist but with a south wind and no orographic enhancement I have a hard time believing .75" 12 hr totals (at least if that's all snow). 

 

Saturday looks like a low will track out of our sw and swing right overhead. Be better if it was dropping in from the west/northwest for enhancement but w/e. Seems like a 3-5" type event given the winds. 

 

Next week has that "stormy" feel to it. Hopefully it plays out that way!

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Bobbutts--nice Dartmouth Skiway shot.  The Upper Valley is my hood and I'd recognize that shot of Smarts Mountain anywhere.  Bet the frost heaves going out the Dorchester Rd were bone-jarring.  ;)  That road is always one of the worst, locally.

 

I was pruning apple trees for some clients only a couple crow-miles away on Saturday--the Goose Pond valley, just a bit south of the Skiway.

 

Anyway, cold continues, obviously.  Had a -11F yesterday, -9F as I type this morning.  While it's been cold, I would guess that Morch from two years ago was way more anomalous than is this cold snap.  Just a hunch.

 

If the cold continues to reload thru the end of the month, I see it as equally (though less spectacularly) anomalous.  That 5-day heatwave in 2012 was unprecedented for NNE March.  Prior to that, Farmington COOP had recorded March temps above 74 only twice in 120 years: 79 on 3/20/1903 and 77 on 3/29/1945.  Then they had 78, 71, 80, 82, 83 - incredible heatwave and yet the month as a whole was 1F less mild than in 2010 and not even in their top 5 for March.  Assuming the modeled gfs temps are close to being correct, this month as a reasonable chance of eclipsing 1984 as their coldest March ever.  It's an opinion question:  Which is more anomalous - an unprecedented 5-day heatwave, or an unprecedented month-long cold period? 

 

Meanwhile, on our regularly scheduled program - another double-digit negative, looked quite similar to yesterday's -14.  Including today, I've recorded 47 subzero mornings this cold season, plus 3 more right at zero.  My previous best for such readings was also my coldest DJFM (until now, perhaps) of 2002-03, with 43 subzeros and five zeroes.

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