stormtracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The convoluted that is because of the big vortex that is located near James Bay which produced confluence that forces the storm to redevelop. Move that vortex and the evolution would be way different. So it's possible and correct based on that setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The convoluted that is because of the big vortex that is located near James Bay which produced confluence that forces the storm to redevelop. Move that vortex and the evolution would be way different. Way diffferent as in good?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Way diffferent as in good?. way different as in a GLC, I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 euro is like 4-8 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 way different as in a GLC, I'm guessing. That would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 euro is like 4-8 lol I worry that 100" would not even satisfy you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 At least the pattern is still decent for snow. The cold will be there. I have NEVER been a fan of northern stream storms. But today has changed my thoughts on it. We could easily get something similar to today over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This snow is gonna be on the ground for at least a week if not more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 This snow is gonna be on the ground for at least a week if not more There will be pack refreshers it looks like. I'm quite interested in the weekend vort. Not nearly as nice as this one but a good track and a possible slp popping sw of us. good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Plus the snowpack should help us to be even colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Anything "big" on the horizon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Anything "big" on the horizon?The big story will be the cold. Most won't get above freezing for 7-10 days at least. A few disturbances will pass by with chances of very light snow/showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I counted 9 below-zero mornings here over the next two weeks on the 18Z GFS. And 12 days with highs in the teens, or lower. Might be a bit over done with the cold, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Back to dry cold on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Usually these NS disturbances trend northward. The 18z has Bob's Monday/Tuesday vort with a nice defined SLP, but it goes to the north of Baltimore/DC. Not our best set-up, but any QPF will fall into a cold, ratio healthy environment. At this point think 1-2" is possible, but I'd be cautious considering the vort track (healthy but too far N). Whenever someone wants I'll start a thread for that one also and try to work my magic once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Usually these NS disturbances trend northward. The 18z has Bob's Monday/Tuesday vort with a nice defined SLP, but it goes to the north of Baltimore/DC. Not our best set-up, but any QPF will fall into a cold, ratio healthy environment. At this point think 1-2" is possible, but I'd be cautious considering the vort track (healthy but too far N). Whenever someone wants I'll start a thread for that one also and try to work my magic once again. Relax, man - it's a week away. Enjoy your snow now and don't worry about starting a thread for that one until later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Usually these NS disturbances trend northward. The 18z has Bob's Monday/Tuesday vort with a nice defined SLP, but it goes to the north of Baltimore/DC. Not our best set-up, but any QPF will fall into a cold, ratio healthy environment. At this point think 1-2" is possible, but I'd be cautious considering the vort track (healthy but too far N). Whenever someone wants I'll start a thread for that one also and try to work my magic once again. To be fair, we have no clue where the vort is going. If it passes north we're fooked. Multiple runs took it south until today but there's no sense dissecting it for days. Just watch h5 and see if we can get it under us. They're sneaky little bastards. And they like to F with us big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 To be fair, we have no clue where the vort is going. If it passes north we're fooked. Multiple runs took it south until today but there's no sense dissecting it for days. Just watch h5 and see if we can get it under us. They're sneaky little bastards. And they like to F with us big time. Oh I'm well aware, just a bit of a look ahead. Just looking for the usuals when its going to snow, nice vort, s track, low popping. We have 2 of those almost, the vort is decent at this point. Just throwing in the very first hint of laser vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Again the analogs suggest an event with center date ~ 1/29. The best event is Feb 96' on the list. So, yeah... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Anything to Thursday's little event? Point and Click shows light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Again the analogs suggest an event with center date ~ 1/29. The best event is Feb 96' on the list. So, yeah... lol What a surprise HM, haha atmospheric memory wouldn't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Again the analogs suggest an event with center date ~ 1/29. The best event is Feb 96' on the list. So, yeah... lol Wonder if/how that could affect the super bowl?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Monday is probably the only real next chance. We appear to be on the edge of too far south for low as it stands right now but much has to happen first. A no impact clipper/front on thursday and then a much more powerful fropa on Saturday. Big low up north means not much for us but another pretty cold shot on the heels. Then it gets interesting. Much will depend on placement of the pv and how far the Mon vort can dig. If we can get it below us then the door is open for an ok clipper. 1-3/2-4 kinda thing. If the flow is more amplified then we get lucky but I think we spent a big parcel of luck today so...but worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Monday is probably the only real next chance. We appear to be on the edge of too far south for low as it stands right now but much has to happen first. A no impact clipper/front on thursday and then a much more powerful fropa on Saturday. Big low up north means not much for us but another pretty cold shot on the heels. Then it gets interesting. Much will depend on placement of the pv and how far the Mon vort can dig. If we can get it below us then the door is open for an ok clipper. 1-3/2-4 kinda thing. If the flow is more amplified then we get lucky but I think we spent a big parcel of luck today so...but worth watching Could be some good snow showers or even squalls on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 that 1/28 to 1/31 period bears watching for me. I see some sneaky SS involvement and things the models may not be resolving properly yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro snowstorm 4-8 towards end of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 6z GFS keeps us near something for next Monday with a northern stream feature, but continues to advertise it as something a bit too far north for us. Worth watching obviously, though. Would need the vort to dig a bit. It also has the end of the month thing that the Euro does. That looks more southern stream and worth watching because it is showing up on multiple models now and is in the timeframe that HM identified as being of interest about a week back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Um..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looks awesome. I hope that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro snowstorm 4-8 towards end of month Gfs starting to support it as well. Euro ensembles seem to be liking it more as time passes. Pretty good signal this far out for sure. We'll still have snow on the ground from this system. I'm enjoying the model battle for overnight monday. Euro dead set on the low passing north. Gfs bouncing between options. Gfs just beat the euro pretty good at medium range with yesterdays storm. Get the vort and lp to dig below and we get another 2-4. Euro ensembles backing off on any warmup. Couple days above normal (not by much) and the cold returns. Precip totals on last nights run are around 1.2 - 1.4 through d15. Looking very active starting Monday through early Feb for us. We have a chance at a solid winter here imo. We don't appear to be wasting prime climo. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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