burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Let's use this thread to discuss the threat this weekend. Euro looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Let's use this thread to discuss the threat this weekend. Euro looks good. Thanks, can we have some more details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Let's use this thread to discuss the threat this weekend. Euro looks good. Not for mby Good luck to everyone to my north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Thanks, can we have some more details? Euro drops around a 1/2 inch for most of WNC with 3-4 inches in the mountains. Looked to me like HKY was the bullseye outside of the mountains with upwards of .50 QPF. The big question will be SFC temps as they look marginal at best. At 5h it looked promising as well although with the maps I have access to I can't see the vort energy just a general flow. We'll need to watch trends over the next 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scsnowgirl Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Does this look to be mainly the mountains and North Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I guess it's this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Steve Brule Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Grasping at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looks great! Too bad only the euro has this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Not for mby Good luck to everyone to my north and west If only we had precip left to make these 15/21 GEFS member's ptype matter for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looks great! Too bad only the euro has this threat. Actually GFS took a step and CMC is almost there as well. This has been three runs in a row now the Euro has had this. I'll take my chances given the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Does this look to be mainly the mountains and North Carolina? Verbatim per the 12z, yes. Has potential to be great for the usuals, upstate SC, upstate GA, TN/NC Apps, out to central NC. Grasping at straws. Not really, but nice input. I'd say the first event is grasping at straws with minimal QPF as the storm is already moving out. With this one, I'm guessing some of the 12z ensembles have something substantial somewhere in the SE just because of the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I like the look of that event for the weekend. I also believe those surface temps, given the variables involves, are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I don't like the low over VA at 120 hrs or low pressure over the GL region. It looks like it'll be hard for areas outside of the mountains to score with that. Edit: What am I not seeing that everyone is excited about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looks like the ukie is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 These individual members of the GFS look close to what the Euro was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 I don't like the low over VA at 120 hrs or low pressure over the GL region. It looks like it'll be hard for areas outside of the mountains to score with that. Edit: What am I not seeing that everyone is excited about? I think it's the cold air aloft and the fact that the Euro has showed it a few times. Now add in that it's over .10 QPF. Like I said given what kind of winter we've had the past two years I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias at 2 meters in many situations in the SE US. It was ~5 F too warm at KATL for the low as a result of the major cold of 1/7/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 These individual members of the GFS look close to what the Euro was showing. The image I left in the quote.. what are the soundings for CLT, GSP, and CAE? Poop on that member? I forget if you can look at individual member soundings on the model center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I don't like the low over VA at 120 hrs or low pressure over the GL region. It looks like it'll be hard for areas outside of the mountains to score with that. Edit: What am I not seeing that everyone is excited about? Snow for the mts and northern nc along the va border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 The image I left in the quote.. what are the soundings for CLT, GSP, and CAE? Poop on that member? I forget if you can look at individual member soundings on the model center. Don't have access to Euro soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I like the look of that event for the weekend. I also believe those surface temps, given the variables involves, are too warm. Boundary layer, again, is what i'm worried about. The timing. especially for ga and sc is just awful. Precip does not start falling until the afternoon and most of the precip in ga is over by 0z. So the euro shoots temps up into the 40s..even 50 across central ga/sc. temps are only in the upper 30s to near 40 for everyone by 0z. Even considering the warm bias of the euro, that seems mighty warm. If we could get it to speed up to arrive sat morning (temps are in the 20s/near 30 area wide sat am) or slow down 12 hours, it would likely make a huge difference. Given it's still 4.5 days off, that isn't an impossible thing. But right I'd say it's mostly rain outside of the mountains in ga and sc.. Up in north carolina/foothills/your area there is probably a better chance of it changing to snow. Looks like it would likely end as light snow in the nc piedmont but most of what little precip that falls there is probably rain too. Of course it would be far easier to figure out if we could know the exact boundary layer conditions it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Snow for the mts and northern nc along the va border I'm feeling this one Michelle. The trends gotta be in our favor. During the heart of the event the SFC freezing line is dissecting Cleveland county in NC. Just gotta move it a little west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'm feeling this one Michelle. The trends gotta be in our favor. During the heart of the event the SFC freezing line is dissecting Cleveland county in NC. Just gotta move it a little west! I'm rooting for everything to come together for those just to my north and west and I will travel to the upstate for anything just over an inch. That being said......Trends are our friend and hopefully it will trend in the right direction for some in the snow starved south. I just don't want anyone close to mby to get their hopes up as this set up (at the moment) isn't gonna get 'er done around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I think it's the cold air aloft and the fact that the Euro has showed it a few times. Now add in that it's over .10 QPF. Like I said given what kind of winter we've had the past two years I'll take my chances. I agree...it's better than just about anything we've had to track over the last couple of years. I still can't get too excited with a low in central VA. At least we have some players on the field in the vicinity of decent locations, which makes wintry weather within the realm of possibility. I can't tell how the low forms or where it moves on the 24 hr panels, but my guess is, it needs to form a tad farther south and east in order to become a big deal. Snow for the mts and northern nc along the va border That sounds just about right. I'd be pretty excited if I lived in the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 This looks to be a close call at 114...North of I-85 in NC/SC could be in business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The exact track of the LP will determine who gets what. Yesterdays 12z euro was futher east than todays. As Lookout stated we still have a few days for things to change. I'm heading to Sylva, NC this weekend so this track will do just fine. I'd like to see the 2m temps drop some but there is time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I agree...it's better than just about anything we've had to track over the last couple of years. I still can't get too excited with a low in central VA. At least we have some players on the field in the vicinity of decent locations, which makes wintry weather within the realm of possibility. I can't tell how the low forms or where it moves on the 24 hr panels, but my guess is, it needs to form a tad farther south and east in order to become a big deal. That sounds just about right. I'd be pretty excited if I lived in the mountains! We are waiting until the 0z runs to make sure its not all fools gold haha. It would be quite fitting for this year if the models went completely dry for the next 8 runs, though thats doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The exact track of the LP will determine who gets what. Yesterdays 12z euro was futher east than todays. As Lookout stated we still have a few days for things to change. I'm heading to Sylva, NC this weekend so this track will do just fine. I'd like to see the 2m temps drop some but there is time. If you are going to be in Sylva, the 2m temps look to be in the 20's during the heart of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 If you are going to be in Sylva, the 2m temps look to be in the 20's during the heart of the event. That sounds good...I'm heading that way Friday afternoon so will be trying to beat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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