Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Another train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 North of I-80 should do well again like last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Pain train for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro pretty impressive with the Tuesday clipper. 3-5" north of I-88 up into southern WI. with improving ratios. Nice area of .40"+ liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro pretty impressive with the Tuesday clipper. 3-5" north of I-88 up into southern WI. with improving ratios. Nice area of .40"+ liquid. GGEM has been showing this clipper with good consistency for a bout 3 days now, GFS has it as well but is cheaper with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Sfc low track on the Euro would indicate some lake enhancement, although parameters look meh at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Early thoughts from DTX with respect to the clipper around Tuesday; THE FOCUS NOW CENTERS ON THE TRAILING WAVE FOR THE TUESDAY ANDTUESDAY NIGHT PERIODS...WITH ENOUGH SEPARATION SHOWN IN THE PVANALYSIS TO MAINTAIN A DEEP CONSOLIDATED CENTROID AS IT ENTERS THEGREAT LAKES. VIGOROUS CORE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WRAPPED INTO THISSYSTEM AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. RESIDENTENVIRONMENT WILL FIRMLY SUPPORT A PTYPE OF SNOW AS THE ATTENDANTMOISTURE PLUME WORKS IN...A STEADY PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIRADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTOTHE -5 TO -7C RANGE BY TUESDAY. AT THIS EARLY STAGE...POTENTIAL ISTHERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS IF NOT ALLOF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro has 0.8" QPF for UGN with 850s -7c for start of event and dropping throughout.. Should be some good ratios and help recharge this dismal snowpack here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 This is looking like the Super Bowl of winters, a fairly decent game but a really crummy half-time show (this five-day thaw is it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 This is looking like the Super Bowl of winters, a fairly decent game but a really crummy half-time show (this five-day thaw is it). On that note, I read this today....... "New Orleans at Seattle (4:30 Sat. on FOX) – rain, windy, mid-upper 40s. INDY at New England (8:15 pm Sat. on CBS – showers, windy, upper 40s). San Francisco at Carolina (1:05 pm – FOX) – mostly sunny, low-mid 50s. San Diego at Denver (4:40 pm on CBS) – partly cloudy, breezy low 40s. The last 4 Super Bowl winners have been the visiting team playing the Philadelphia Eagles for their home opener…weird…that would mean the Chargers win this one." .......I'd bet this fact will change this year, I can't see the Chargers winning it, but who knows, nobody can predict the weather either lol. As to this clipper, anything I get and keep from melting is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Finally a clipper I have a pretty good feeling about. Of course, now that I say it, DAB time. Still, this one looks to not pass too far south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro has 0.8" QPF for UGN with 850s -7c for start of event and dropping throughout.. Should be some good ratios and help recharge this dismal snowpack here Do you mean 0.08" QPF? I don't think the Euro is showing 0.8" QPF for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Wagons north on 12z Euro. Looks like a half inch to inch of fluff for this area. DLL to Moneyman in the prime zone from the looks of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Wagons north on 12z Euro. Looks like a half inch to inch of fluff for this area. DLL to Moneyman in the prime zone from the looks of things. The ECMWF is worthless. Two runs ago it didn't even have much of a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The ECMWF is worthless. Two runs ago it didn't even have much of a clipper. Rename it SDOS? (screen door on submarine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The ECMWF is worthless. Two runs ago it didn't even have much of a clipper. I wouldn't got that far, but it's indicative what a fall from grace this model has had. A year ago would it have been imaginable for the words "ECMWF" and "worthless" to be in the same sentence proffered by a reasonable board member? (except for in cases like "Euro is the king, unlike the worthless NAM.") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Rename it SDOS? (screen door on submarine). Throw the NAM in with the SDOS then. Congrats GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 18z GFS - still south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 (Insert board member here) hugging the 'new and improved' ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 I wouldn't got that far, but it's indicative what a fall from grace this model has had. A year ago would it have been imaginable for the words "ECMWF" and "worthless" to be in the same sentence proffered by a reasonable board member? (except for in cases like "Euro is the king, unlike the worthless NAM.") That was just to pile it on. But yea...It is worth much less than in previous years. Outside of the times where all guidance has been terrible, it has generally been out-performed by the GFS. In this region that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 GFS north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Interestingly, I noticed that the convective signals are getting tripped on the NAM for Tuesday, likely due to the deep layer of relatively steep lapse rates. Could make things a little more interesting even if the amounts aren't all that exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Interestingly, I noticed that the convective signals are getting tripped on the NAM for Tuesday, likely due to the deep layer of relatively steep lapse rates. Could make things a little more interesting even if the amounts aren't all that exciting. Congrats to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 12z EURO still north. Probably the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Congrats to us? Screen Shot 2014-01-12 at 12.55.45 PM.png Gotta make the most out of the hand we're dealt. These scenarios sometimes lead to surprises. Would not rule out a period of rippage but it would probably be brief and hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I have a strange inkling that the "worst of winter" is over for us Toronto folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Models seem to be bringing the sfc low across S WI, with the CMC the northern outlier. Best WAA snows will be north of MKE so will have to rely on the vort max to provide forcing. At this time I cant see anything more than 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 0.4" for LAF during thundersnow? lol. Euro a little too far north, cut NAM in half, 0.9" for LAF, final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 DAB for Chitown. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 After examining various convective parameters, it seems like the NAM is producing some high total totals. Based on how total totals are calculated, this is largely due to the temperature difference between 850 and 500 mb, but 850 mb dewpoints are also part of the equation. Edit: 18z NAM actually has TT peaking in the upper 50s here on Tuesday. I've hardly ever seen that on a cold/winter sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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