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Winter 2014-2015 Thread

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

Posted
Posted

Top 5 coldest at BWI airport (records to 1939)

1962-1963	28.3	28.7	27.7	28.2
1977-1978	35.6	29.2	27.3	30.7
1976-1977	32.6	22.9	36.5	30.7
2002-2003	34.3	28.3	30.2	30.9
1960-1961	28.4	27.6	37.0	31.0

 (last column is winter avg temp...the first 3 is Dec, Jan, Feb temps respectively)

 

I have different data than you for top 5 coldest for BWI. This comes from: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwitemps.txt  which, as far as I know, is the official climo data for BWI.

 

Year: D, J, F, DJF

1963: 30.9, 28.8, 27.8, 29.2

 

1918: 28.4, 24.2, 35.4, 29.3

 

1904: 33, 27.4, 28.6, 29.7

 

1905: 31.6, 30.8, 27.3, 29.9

 

5th place a was a 3-way tie:

1893: 33.7, 24.3, 34, 30.7

1977: 32.6, 22.9, 36.5, 30.7

1978: 35.6, 29.2, 27.3, 30.7

 

Also of note is that 1963 is ranked as a -5.9 departure, while your data has it at -6.9 (which is why I had said a -6 departure would be the coldest winter ever).

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

does anyone know where I can get daily high/lows for DCA...I tried the utah climate center but can't get washington national...I want to put together the coldest 30 day period for DCA or even BWI if I get the stats...that 22.9 in January 1977 is probably a little colder if you use the coldest period which probably ended in early February...

 

DCA is there on the Utah site, but it only goes back to 1945.  I have it back to the 1800s in a spreadsheet.  Lowest 30-day average was 20.0° ending on 1/22/1893.  Lowest "modern" (airport location) was 25.4° ending on 1/30/1977.

 

IAD's lowest is 20.9° ending 2/1/1977.  Only 1984 is close at 21.3° ending 1/22.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

Wes,

 Weak Nino's with solid -NAO/-AO and +PDO (colder than any other ENSO with the same) have been the coldest group of winters when averaged for much of the E US (certainly in the SE US).. Snowfall is a different story that I'm not addressing..

The one fly in the oiinment for cold is how warm it has been globally this year and that even last winter the area of cold globally was pretty limited, the great lakes got real lucky and we in DC also lucked out.  I'm not sure what that means but suspect that the area of colder than normal also will be limited.  Weak ninos are usually kind to you guys (colder than normal). 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

DCA is there on the Utah site, but it only goes back to 1945.  I have it back to the 1800s in a spreadsheet.  Lowest 30-day average was 20.0° ending on 1/22/1893.  Lowest "modern" (airport location) was 25.4° ending on 1/30/1977.

 

IAD's lowest is 20.9° ending 2/1/1977.  Only 1984 is close at 21.3° ending 1/22.

I'm trying the site but can't find it...the site was much easier before they changed the format...

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

The one fly in the oiinment for cold is how warm it has been globally this year and that even last winter the area of cold globally was pretty limited, the great lakes got real lucky and we in DC also lucked out.  I'm not sure what that means but suspect that the area of colder than normal also will be limited.  Weak ninos are usually kind to you guys (colder than normal). 

the one thing that bothers me this year is the AO going so low without any real cold around here...We have seen a nice storm track so far ...it could be a year with good snows but not very cold...

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Super cold is usually not good for snow. Normal during the heart of winter with some minor excursions below is usually fine and better than oppressive massive cold surges.

Yeah and really other than the agenda driven hype artists and pimple faced FB weenie "forecasters" I dont think anyone looking at  the data and guidance rationally and objectively believes this is going to be a brutally cold winter for the east coast.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I'm not a huge fan of ens guidance into Nov. If you compare the last night euro ens 5 day mean (nov 3-8) to the last 3 warm neutral/weak nino's there are some noticeable similarities in height anomaly placement. Euro weeklies continue the look through most of the month. All 3 of these years had top 10 Oct SAI but only 1 had top 10 SCE (06). 

 

 

post-2035-0-68818500-1414159262_thumb.gi

 

 

post-2035-0-24862800-1414159289_thumb.gi

 

 

There's some good things about these years. 06-07 was a bit of a stinker. Especially early on but it did produce in Feb. 03-04 had a good start with 6" totals for Dec and Jan but stunk in Feb. 04-05 was an underperformer given the pattern in Jan-Feb but at least both months had some snow (6.4" and 5.2" respectively). It could have easily been a better winter in the snow dept. 

 

Couple takeaways from these 3 years. All performed in some fashion and ended with relatively similar snow totals at DCA (9.5 - 12.5"). IAD and BWI were similar % wise compared to climo but obviously had more snow than DCA. 

 

06-07 really behaved differently than you would expect given the teleconnections and indices going in. A bit of an outlier. I suppose 03-04 and 04-05 behaved more as one would expect leading in. 

 

I remain quite skeptical of door to door cold and/or snow. A fair wag would be to expect a favorable pattern at times but guessing front or back loaded is a coin toss kind of guess. Exceeding climo would probably require 1 fairly big event. That's certainly on the table this year moreso than others imho. But if it doesn't happen we'll likely end up below climo. 

 

These are my random thoughts for today subject to change multiple times as we navigate November. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I have different data than you for top 5 coldest for BWI. This comes from: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwitemps.txt  which, as far as I know, is the official climo data for BWI.

 

Year: D, J, F, DJF

1963: 30.9, 28.8, 27.8, 29.2

 

1918: 28.4, 24.2, 35.4, 29.3

 

1904: 33, 27.4, 28.6, 29.7

 

1905: 31.6, 30.8, 27.3, 29.9

 

5th place a was a 3-way tie:

1893: 33.7, 24.3, 34, 30.7

1977: 32.6, 22.9, 36.5, 30.7

1978: 35.6, 29.2, 27.3, 30.7

 

Also of note is that 1963 is ranked as a -5.9 departure, while your data has it at -6.9 (which is why I had said a -6 departure would be the coldest winter ever).

 

 

My data was from BWI airport...hence the reference to "since 1939", the data prior is from a different site...I'm not sure why there is a difference in raw temp though for years like 1962-1963

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

 

Try this site. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/#

 

To find the lowest 30 day mean average temps, for instance, go to "Extremes" under the Single Station drop down. And then go from there.

is there a way to get the warmest 30 days and coldest 30 days for each year?...

years with the coldest 30 day period for DCA is...

year...ave...

1976-77...25.4...1/1-1/30...

1947-48...25.4...1/14-2/12

1993-94...26.2...12/25-1/23

1960-61...26.5...1/15-2/13

1981-82...27.0...1/9-2/7

2003-04...27.3...1/7-2/5

1989-90...27.5...12/3-1/1

1984-85...27.8...1/11-2/9

snowiest 30 days...

2009-10...38.5" 1/29-2/28

1978-79...33.0" 1/27-2/26

1995-96...32.2" 1/6-2/4

1960-61...31.6" 1/19-/17

2002-03...28.8" 2/6-3/7

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Yeah and really other than the agenda driven hype artists and pimple faced FB weenie "forecasters" I dont think anyone looking at  the data and guidance rationally and objectively believes this is going to be a brutally cold winter for the east coast.

I've not seen any data or guidance source that's good enough to EVER be able to accurately predict brutal cold.  Or extreme warmth for that matter.

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StudentOfClimatology

StudentOfClimatology

Posted
Posted

I'm not a huge fan of ens guidance into Nov. If you compare the last night euro ens 5 day mean (nov 3-8) to the last 3 warm neutral/weak nino's there are some noticeable similarities in height anomaly placement. Euro weeklies continue the look through most of the month. All 3 of these years had top 10 Oct SAI but only 1 had top 10 SCE (06).

euro5day.GIF

weakninosai.GIF

There's some good things about these years. 06-07 was a bit of a stinker. Especially early on but it did produce in Feb. 03-04 had a good start with 6" totals for Dec and Jan but stunk in Feb. 04-05 was an underperformer given the pattern in Jan-Feb but at least both months had some snow (6.4" and 5.2" respectively). It could have easily been a better winter in the snow dept.

Couple takeaways from these 3 years. All performed in some fashion and ended with relatively similar snow totals at DCA (9.5 - 12.5"). IAD and BWI were similar % wise compared to climo but obviously had more snow than DCA.

06-07 really behaved differently than you would expect given the teleconnections and indices going in. A bit of an outlier. I suppose 03-04 and 04-05 behaved more as one would expect leading in.

I remain quite skeptical of door to door cold and/or snow. A fair wag would be to expect a favorable pattern at times but guessing front or back loaded is a coin toss kind of guess. Exceeding climo would probably require 1 fairly big event. That's certainly on the table this year moreso than others imho. But if it doesn't happen we'll likely end up below climo.

These are my random thoughts for today subject to change multiple times as we navigate November.

That looks a lot like November 2009.

I really like 2003-04, but I don't think 2006-07/2004-05 are good stratospheric analogs. Wrong MQI phase/timing & weaker BDC in particular, if I recall correcty?

I still like my call for a warm December overall, with the Arctic sledgehammer dropping sometime in January after the SSW.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

For comparison to my previous post, here's the Novies from the colder and/or snowier analog years being tossed around. I'm not saying Nov is that huge of a signal because I really don't know enough but it's becoming fairly clear we aren't headed for this type of Nov pattern. 

 

attachicon.gifensoanalogs.GIF

It will be interesting to do a verification on this statement on Dec 1.

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StudentOfClimatology

StudentOfClimatology

Posted
Posted

For comparison to my previous post, here's the Novies from the colder and/or snowier analog years being tossed around. I'm not saying Nov is that huge of a signal because I really don't know enough but it's becoming fairly clear we aren't headed for this type of Nov pattern.

ensoanalogs.GIF

I don't think November 2009 belongs in there (was a blowtorch). What you're seeing are differences in the timing of intraseasonal tropical forcing, not a precursor signal.

nEwdUR.jpg

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

is there a way to get the warmest 30 days and coldest 30 days for each year?...

 

In the Options selection tab, use the more "More Options" click down...and then you can restrict/change the date range. Hopefully that helps. 

 

One word of caution with this site, the snowfall data doesn't always jive with the official record. Though most of that is pre-1950, from what I've found.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

It will be interesting to do a verification on this statement on Dec 1.

 

Pretty strong signal for the first half of the month to end up AN on the means. We're not headed for that type of pattern early in the month and guidance has been rather steadfast for days now. I don't think it really matters much down the line but I would personally prefer not seeing the lowest heights centered in the GOA/west coast while we fight ridging. If we get stuck in a pattern like this in Dec nobody will be happy. 

 

I don't think November 2009 belongs in there (was a blowtorch). What you're seeing are differences in the timing of intraseasonal tropical forcing, not a precursor signal.

 

 

I just grabbed the cold/snowy years that are getting tossed around with no weight on any one given. Doesn't change the composite much if 09 is removed. I don't think 09 is a good analog anyways. Mod nino with door to door blocking is tough to duplicate. 

 

An interesting thing about 09 is the lack of cold. Even with a ridiculous -ao/nao it wasn't a particularly cold year. Wes made a good point about lack of real cold air to tap. There isn't much around until you get over to the snow covered areas of eurasia. That will change of course but our source regions remain rather mild right now. 

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

That looks a lot like November 2009.

I really like 2003-04, but I don't think 2006-07/2004-05 are good stratospheric analogs. Wrong MQI phase/timing & weaker BDC in particular, if I recall correcty?

I still like my call for a warm December overall, with the Arctic sledgehammer dropping sometime in January after the SSW.

2003/2004 type winter would definitely be ok. The first 5 days or so in Jan. 04 were very warm then everything flipped to very cold for the entire month. The real extreme cold however stayed just north of the region but it was plenty cold here nonetheless. Feb. 04 produced very little but if memory serves correct there were several systems that formed off the coast just a bit too late for us and there were a couple that got the Carolina's and southern Virginia and missed here. There was also a  very wet system that had potential but ultimately came too far inland and most areas received a mix to rain scenario. Temps in Feb. that year were close to average.

 

December 03 was not not a warm month however and it was very active especially the first half of the month. November was very warm that year. My point is I think looking at that particular year may be a pretty good match and 03/04 was probably very close to being a big winter for the region. Coming off a winter like we had last year would make tougher to forecast this winter since it seemed to be such an anomaly but may be what occurred last year will have no bearing on this year. I always very excited about the upcoming winter but I'm more interested in seeing how everything plays out this year than usual because of the lack of clarity with the nino.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The main difference seems to be in Dec. 1962. I wonder why our two datasets are so different for that one.

 

 

It's possible Climod had an error on it. Though I usually find it to match the NWS data. This might just be a rare time where one of the datasets is in error...probably climod would be my guess.

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