Deck Pic Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 even if we get a nino, unless it is high end moderate, I don't think we'll get a negative height anomaly south of the aleutians unless the PDO spikes...which means we'll need a great atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Snowing in Calgary again. Building the snowpack up. https://twitter.com/BrandonCNN/status/509719851565592577 But we want it in Siberia, right? Or does it matter if it snows in Canada early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 even if we get a nino, unless it is high end moderate, I don't think we'll get a negative height anomaly south of the aleutians unless the PDO spikes...which means we'll need a great atlantic... Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 But we want it in Siberia, right? Or does it matter if it snows in Canada early? The only thing we care about is the rate of snow cover increase in October. A snowless NH in sept is totally fine. Then we want it to pile up to Jeb style piles all Oct in Siberia. Last year was an interesting case. It piled up in the second half of September so there wasn't that much left to cover in Oct. The rate was small and the +AO did in fact respond in Dec. It then collapsed and overall never mattered much because even with a +AO it snowed in Dec. We simply got lucky and maximized all year last year. No way we do it 2 years in a row. We're going to need a -ao/nao combo on the means this year to hit or exceed climo imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 @RaleighWX helping us out here: Here is an interesting winter climo indice stat. Since 1950 17 Dec-Feb periods average between 0.4 and 1.4. Or weak/mod El Nino. Of those 17 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 10s 8 had a QBO that averaged negative in the same period Of those 8 winters all 8 had a DJF -AO, and 7/8 had a -NAO 1979-80 exception with 0.1 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 26s We are expected a weak/mod El Nino, and a -QBO this winter This stat and also some past QBO research, suggests frequent blocking this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 even if we get a nino, unless it is high end moderate, I don't think we'll get a negative height anomaly south of the aleutians unless the PDO spikes...which means we'll need a great atlantic... Yea, no clear cut answers yet. If I had to guess, I would say one or the other will be favorable for a period when it counts this year. I doubt we have an hideous Pac AND ghastly Atl. Just a guess though. I don't think this winter will be door to door. It seems more likely that we'll toss a decent period due to a hostile pattern. Which is pretty normal around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I still have huge doubts that we see a nino at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The only thing we care about is the rate of snow cover increase in October. A snowless NH in sept is totally fine. Then we want it to pile up to Jeb style piles all Oct in Siberia. Last year was an interesting case. It piled up in the second half of September so there wasn't that much left to cover in Oct. The rate was small and the +AO did in fact respond in Dec. It then collapsed and overall never mattered much because even with a +AO it snowed in Dec. We simply got lucky and maximized all year last year. No way we do it 2 years in a row. We're going to need a -ao/nao combo on the means this year to hit or exceed climo imo. last year showed (not necessarily proved) that a rapid rise in September could do it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 last year showed (not necessarily proved) that a rapid rise in September could do it too Based on the index itself, it definitely verified though. The AO was crazy positive in Nov-Dec. We hit +4sd each month with only a very short period in the negative. I've kinda wondered if the early rise in late Oct lasting through nearly the end of Dec helped us. Ran out of steam. If the big rise started in Dec and lasted that long....ouch. It's one of the few (if not only) times a big +AO in Dec completely reversed and went nearly -1 for Jan. I don't want to test a big Dec +AO this year. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Based on the index itself, it definitely verified though. The AO was crazy positive in Nov-Dec. We hit +4sd each month with only a very short period in the negative. I've kinda wondered if the early rise in late Oct lasting through nearly the end of Dec helped us. Ran out of steam. If the big rise started in Dec and lasted that long....ouch. It's one of the few (if not only) times a big +AO in Dec completely reversed and went nearly -1 for Jan. I don't want to test a big Dec +AO this year. That's for sure. must you use that word......I just had my egd and back end test this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Hey guys, I live in the Philly suburbs but Ive been reading your sub-forum for a while now and a ton of great discussions going on in here ( Philly's sub-forum is dead as your probably know ). Regarding the developing nino, I believe its almost a lock we'll get one. Now can we get nino areas 3.4 and 4 closer to +1.0 C remains to be seen. But with a -PDO as described above, it could be somewhat a moot point. Still, having a active sub tropical jet with times of a -AO/-NAO combo would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 speaking of the devil, since they weren't yet posted, this week's SSTA numbers....steady as she goes on the cusp of weak NINO (with a spike in 1&2 over last week fwiw) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 As discussed in the nino thread, there is some decent sub-surface warmth showing up in the pacific. Should reach the surface by some point in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I think the winter picture will become clear by March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I posted this in the enso thread on the main board. Things are slowly improving in 3.4. Ensembles also show a favorable pattern in the npac basin as a whole to cool the PDO region. Could be transient of course but definitely not a bad look for the next 2 weeks. I'm becoming a bit more optimistic that things may break in our favor through the end of the month. The big ? is whether Oct will fook it all up or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Nino 4 looks fairly toasty while Nino 3 looks neutral or even a touch cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Nino 4 looks fairly toasty while Nino 3 looks neutral or even a touch cool. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03SEP2014 21.7 1.2 25.3 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.2 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Nino 4 looks fairly toasty while Nino 3 looks neutral or even a touch cool. Yep, it's been an agonizing process to say the least. It's a massive improvement from where we were just a month ago in the western half of the nino regions. I remember looking at this plot back in August and thinking we had big problems on our hands but it was still way too early to hit any panic buttons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03SEP2014 21.7 1.2 25.3 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.2 0.5 Guess not much difference. Looks a little more different by eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Guess not much difference. Looks a little more different by eye. I think that the eastern portion of Niño 4 is holding Niño 4 down per this satellite map. Also, NOAA and this satellite derived map often don't jibe well at all, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Earliest snow on record for Rapid City SD https://twitter.com/NWSRapidCity/status/510083127213973504 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Earliest snow on record for Rapid City SD https://twitter.com/NWSRapidCity/status/510083127213973504 The PV will be on roids this year. Ice on the shores of the GOM and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 How do you make Mitch excited, mad, happy, and sad all at the same time? Just post the last 25 CFS ensemble runs for December temps. The CFS is the sawed off shotgun of long range modeling. One pellet is bound to accidentally hit the target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 How do you make Mitch excited, mad, happy, and sad all at the same time? Just post the last 25 CFS ensemble runs for December temps. The CFS is the sawed off shotgun of long range modeling. One pellet is bound to accidentally hit the target. cfsdec.JPG My money is on the member on the bottom row, 2nd from the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I like the 8th member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 How do you make Mitch excited, mad, happy, and sad all at the same time? Just post the last 25 CFS ensemble runs for December temps. The CFS is the sawed off shotgun of long range modeling. One pellet is bound to accidentally hit the target. cfsdec.JPG Well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 This is worth a read. If you like to laugh that is..... Apparently, JB pens under a fictitious name. http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/#.VBDjFJ7fMjF.facebook I know I'm stocking up my pantry, starting this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 This is worth a read. If you like to laugh that is..... Apparently, JB pens under a fictitious name. http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/#.VBDjFJ7fMjF.facebook I know I'm stocking up my pantry, starting this weekend. Lol. I was just going to post this link. Stock up on your powdered milk now. It is one of the most ridiculous articles I have ever read. 50 times your normal snowfall anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Lol. I was just going to post this link. Stock up on your powdered milk now. It is one of the most ridiculous articles I have ever read. 50 times your normal snowfall anyone? I don't know where I'm going to put 1,300 inches of snow. Better start getting a plan together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 It's a joke, designed to be a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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