Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 WRAL is talking about the possibility of severe storms in NC this Saturday. I thought this might get lost in the pattern thread since everyone is talking about snow, so I made a separate thread for it. Hope that is fine. Anyone have any thoughts on the chances of severe weather this Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Yes, they are saying the same thing here in ATL. I think it is going to be way too cool for this to happen?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I don't see any severe (at this point) for my area, but it could be something to watch for those to my north and east DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0230 AM CST THU JAN 09 2014VALID 111200Z - 121200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTSTATES/CAROLINAS......SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...AS A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS ONSATURDAY...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STEADYEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY EARLYSATURDAY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY SUNDAY. AMPLE FORCING FORASCENT ASIDE...A CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER WINDFIELD IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED BY 100+KT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH 50-70 KT WINDS AROUND 850MB...COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARMSECTOR.FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDE THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDFRONT AND THE EXTENSIVENESS OF EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION...ASIDE FROMTHE EXACT DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR MOISTENING AND DIURNALDESTABILIZATION. REGARDLESS...IF/WHERE AT LEAST SUFFICIENTDESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZES OF AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OFMLCAPE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGHLY ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMMODES CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE HIGHDEGREE OF VERTICAL SHEAR/SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Usually, cloud cover will limit insolation this time of year. Wind fields will likely be sufficient to foster severe, but as usual, instability will probably be lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Phew I'm glad someone started this thread, I was having a hard time following this threat with all the talk about the upcoming snowstorm in our medium range disco thread. Personally I'm worried the rain drops will be so large it will damage my blades of grass. GSP is going with a high likelyhood of cloud cover tomorrow and Saturday, I hope people are prepared for this as it may catch people off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Good thread. Winter is boring me numb so time to dream of spring. JIT (just in time) moisture will probably fail, but I could see warming enough with this vigorous system. However JIT moisture and cloud cover present challenges. Wind fields should support locally damaging straight winds. I don't know about TOR but low-top convection can surprise. How about some graupel on the back side? Makes for a good desk/sofa chase while watching NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 day2probotlk_0700_any.gif Wow, that is a lot higher threat than I thought there would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Seems the risk has been increased in the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 If only that risk was for snow and ice! Time to change the batteries on the weather alert radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 day2probotlk_0700_any.gif Adding the text: ...SOUTHERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... ALTHOUGH THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION...APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /PRECIPITABLE WATER AOA 1.5 INCHES/ PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK CAPE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER LINGERS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...FORCING NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ONE OR MORE EVOLVING LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...INCLUDING A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET WHICH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 70 KTS...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY EVEN BECOME CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES...IF NOT DISCRETE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Adding the text: ...SOUTHERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... ALTHOUGH THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION...APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /PRECIPITABLE WATER AOA 1.5 INCHES/ PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK CAPE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER LINGERS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...FORCING NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ONE OR MORE EVOLVING LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...INCLUDING A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET WHICH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 70 KTS...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY EVEN BECOME CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES...IF NOT DISCRETE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES. That last paragraph does not sound good. Maybe we'll have some storms and not anything severe. Of course, that could be a good thing. You know the old tale about thunderstorms in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That last paragraph does not sound good. Maybe we'll have some storms and not anything severe. Of course, that could be a good thing. You know the old tale about thunderstorms in winter. Yep. If it thunders in winter, ten day later it will have thundered ten days ago. Works every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Severe wx indies are going up with each run of the GFS over eastern NC and eastern SC. This is definitely getting interesting. Haven't looked at the soundings but definitely seeing some hook like hodographs in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Severe wx indies are going up with each run of the GFS over eastern NC and eastern SC. This is definitely getting interesting. Haven't looked at the soundings but definitely seeing some hook like hodographs in some places. I hope people pay attention to this. I think a lot of folks are thinking it's winter so we don't have to worry about anything. It's not even getting much attention here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Why did they take the 30% area out if indices are going up with each run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Yep. If it thunders in winter, ten day later it will have thundered ten days ago. Works every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Why did they take the 30% area out if indices are going up with each run? Maybe they believe short term models over the GFS. There isn't much support for the GFS, I was just posting about a trend I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Why did they take the 30% area out if indices are going up with each run? I'm not sure the 30% was warranted for the early Day 2 update, but based on their discussion, they seem to feel that the best pre-frontal convection stays offshore, hence backing down to 15%. This was based off of the 12z SPC WRF. The 15z SREF is coming in more robust with the severe potential. While this setup could perform, there are some red flags. While wind fields are good on the speed side, directional shear is modest at best. Hodographs show some turning, but they're not classic by any means. Instability is not very impressive and clouds/debris during the morning could even further limit destabilization. With all of this said, I think there will be some isolated severe wind gusts with a squall line associated with a cold front. While there could be a few discrete cells out in front, this is not looking like an outbreak. I'd imagine is there is a narrow band from the eastern Carolinas into southeastern Virginia that could have the greatest potential, but at the end of the day, I think severe reports will wind up more isolated as opposed to widespread. Here's the 12z GFS sounding for RIC at 18z Saturday. You'd like to winds turning more around to the west with height: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Areas of NC look like the severe threat definitely ramped up possibly weak tor wise per 15z SREF just looking at low res stuff, no graphs or anything. KCAE is in it a little bit more for SC also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Thanks Quincy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Some nice rotation with a cell coming into Chatham Co. NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I'm not sure the 30% was warranted for the early Day 2 update, but based on their discussion, they seem to feel that the best pre-frontal convection stays offshore, hence backing down to 15%. This was based off of the 12z SPC WRF. The 15z SREF is coming in more robust with the severe potential. While this setup could perform, there are some red flags. While wind fields are good on the speed side, directional shear is modest at best. Hodographs show some turning, but they're not classic by any means. Instability is not very impressive and clouds/debris during the morning could even further limit destabilization. With all of this said, I think there will be some isolated severe wind gusts with a squall line associated with a cold front. While there could be a few discrete cells out in front, this is not looking like an outbreak. I'd imagine is there is a narrow band from the eastern Carolinas into southeastern Virginia that could have the greatest potential, but at the end of the day, I think severe reports will wind up more isolated as opposed to widespread. Here's the 12z GFS sounding for RIC at 18z Saturday. You'd like to winds turning more around to the west with height: RIC.gif I agree with the bolded........Thanks for stopping by Quincy Areas of NC look like the severe threat definitely ramped up possibly weak tor wise per 15z SREF just looking at low res stuff, no graphs or anything. KCAE is in it a little bit more for SC also. I'm not expecting any more than a rumble of thunder, a little breeze and a brief downpour as the front comes threw. The line will get a little stronger (as usual) just to the east of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Here's the 12z GFS sounding for RIC at 18z Saturday. You'd like to winds turning more around to the west with height: RIC.gif Um, there is a ton of directional shear in that sounding. SSE at the surface veering to WSW in the upper levels is perfectly sufficient. Analysis of that sounding on twisterdata shows a long, sickle shaped hodograph in the lowest 3 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Um, there is a ton of directional shear in that sounding. SSE at the surface veering to WSW in the upper levels is perfectly sufficient. Analysis of that sounding on twisterdata shows a long, sickle shaped hodograph in the lowest 3 km. RAH's afternoon disco... "SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS DEPICT LONG CURVED PROFILES INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE LINES WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 10K FEET...EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. COULD SEE A FEW ROTATING STORMS...ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG OF THE FRONT...AND A FEW STORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS SUGGEST A SLIGHT RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 RAH's afternoon disco... "SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS DEPICT LONG CURVED PROFILES INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE LINES WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 10K FEET...EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. COULD SEE A FEW ROTATING STORMS...ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG OF THE FRONT...AND A FEW STORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS SUGGEST A SLIGHT RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1." And guess where I am? Right off US 1. Going to have to keep an eye on this. Seems the threat gets bigger and bigger as we get closer to tomorrow. What a crazy winter. We have record cold, a ton of rain, and now severe weather to worry about, but still no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Um, there is a ton of directional shear in that sounding. SSE at the surface veering to WSW in the upper levels is perfectly sufficient. Analysis of that sounding on twisterdata shows a long, sickle shaped hodograph in the lowest 3 km. RAH's afternoon disco... "SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS DEPICT LONG CURVED PROFILES INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE LINES WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 10K FEET...EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. COULD SEE A FEW ROTATING STORMS...ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG OF THE FRONT...AND A FEW STORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS SUGGEST A SLIGHT RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1." Yeah I saw some interesting hodos but haven't checked much recently as in on my cell. Definitely anything that spins up will be brief and the window is small but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC948 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014NCC101-163-191-110300-/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T0300Z/JOHNSTON NC-SAMPSON NC-WAYNE NC-948 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM ESTFOR SOUTHERN JOHNSTON...NORTHEASTERN SAMPSON AND SOUTHWESTERN WAYNECOUNTIES...AT 946 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLEOF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WASLOCATED NEAR SPIVEYS CORNER...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON...MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEWTON GROVE... KEENER...VANNCROSSROADS...SPIVEYS CORNER...PLAIN VIEW... GRANTHAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 There's some decent winds showing up near the MCC near Sanford. Also, it's currently 38f in Burlington and 58f in Garner. impressive gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.