Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 NAEFS is disgusting.... this blows. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014012512_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png I actually have no problem with this. As long as we get some storms thrown in we may as well get this winter as extreme as it can get. Wouldn't mind a winter where every month from November- February averages below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It looks decent for Chicago, Detroit and Toronto in fact. Widespread 6-10" storm. The 18z GFS is the first run to show it though (not to mention how impossible it seems to get a storm like that with a track like that as of late), so it's more than likely a fluke. Hopefully this winter won't be bookended by ice storms. Wouldn't be surprised if this system ends up being a mixture of everything. Live in Toronto long enough and you'd understand why I feel this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hopefully this winter won't be bookended by ice storms. Wouldn't be surprised if this system ends up being a mixture of everything. Live in Toronto long enough and you'd understand why I feel this way. This will be the first in a parade of storms. PV still close enough that I think whiff to the south is the most likely outcome. The ones afterwards with -PNA and increasingly +AO could be more snowy or messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 NAEFS is disgusting.... this blows. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014012512_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png I don't mind this either. The cold air supply will be coming in from more southerly latitudes. It will be getting wetter, so things will become more interesting. SE ridge starts to back into the east so that will halt some of the coldest air and cause it to veer off into eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This will be the first in a parade of storms. PV still close enough that I think whiff to the south is the most likely outcome. The ones afterwards with -PNA and increasingly +AO could be more snowy or messy. I don't know where your negativity has come from lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This will be the first in a parade of storms. PV still close enough that I think whiff to the south is the most likely outcome. The ones afterwards with -PNA and increasingly +AO could be more snowy or messy. Ever the optimist I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I don't know where your negativity has come from lately. I'm not being negative. I'm giving you my assessment based on what meteorological knowledge I have. What value is it to wishcast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm not being negative. I'm giving you my assessment based on what meteorological knowledge I have. What value is it to wishcast? Not wishcasting. I think the 2/1-2 system would impact our area based on the PV orienting itself to allow for some ridging along the east coast. It's what the models show not me wishcasting. Nice try though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not wishcasting. I think the 2/1-2 system would impact our area based on the PV orienting itself to allow for some ridging along the east coast. It's what the models show not me wishcasting. Nice try though. I wasn't saying you're wishcasting. I'm saying implicit in your post about me being negative is the desire that I'll say something like "yeah, big snowstorm on Feb 1 is a lock" or not say anything at all. Why would you want me to post something like that if I don't believe it to be true? Or why would you want me to refrain from making posts that are not pro-big snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not wishcasting. I think the 2/1-2 system would impact our area based on the PV orienting itself to allow for some ridging along the east coast. It's what the models show not me wishcasting. Nice try though. I wasn't saying you're wishcasting. I'm saying implicit in your post about me being negative is the desire that I'll say something like "yeah, big snowstorm on Feb 1 is a lock" or not say anything at all. Why would you want me to post something like that if I don't believe it to be true? Or why would you want me to refrain from making posts that are not pro-big snow? I'm thinking it will give a foot to Detroit before moving south, giving Toronto a few mood flakes and then reenergizing to give NYC and Boston 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Cold from southerly latitudes. SE ridge pushing cold into eastern Canada. What the... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Cold from southerly latitudes. SE ridge pushing cold into eastern Canada. What the...LMAO! I thought it was me & I had 2 many beers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I've had enough cold...and i still have next week to deal with. Kids will be in school until July at this rate. Frosty needs to melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I've had enough cold...and i still have next week to deal with. Kids will be in school until July at this rate. Frosty needs to melt JB showed a map today depicting another arctic outbreak for you guys the first week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 FYI: My "southerly latitudes" comment was pointing out air originating from western Canada, instead of the North Pole or Siberia. JB is thinking that the SE ridge will push further west than some models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 FYI: My "southerly latitudes" comment was pointing out air originating from western Canada, instead of the North Pole or Siberia. JB is thinking that the SE ridge will push further west than some models are showing. What are you thinking, big February mega-torch? Winter cancel? I need to know if I can start scheduling tee times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What are you thinking, big February mega-torch? Winter cancel? I need to know if I can start scheduling tee times! Me too! St Andrews on WGT can only do so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What are you thinking, big February mega-torch? Winter cancel? I need to know if I can start scheduling tee times! Haha, not so fast. Maybe in March. JB says a battle of the ages is coming from the Great Plains to southern NE I think he put it. Will end up getting air from SSC at times from what I can see. Still looking like widespread - 5-10° normal departures. I want to see if I can get to 70 days of snow cover in a row. Looking possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not sure if it's been mentioned but the gradient in the extended is reminiscent of Feb 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Haha, not so fast. Maybe in March. JB says a battle of the ages is coming from the Great Plains to southern NE I think he put it. Will end up getting air from SSC at times from what I can see. Still looking like widespread - 5-10° normal departures. I want to see if I can get to 70 days of snow cover in a row. Looking possible... Just kidding, Geos. I expect February to be colder than normal for most of us. And a March torch? I'd bet against it right now. But, that's waaayyy out there in the future. First things first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not sure if it's been mentioned but the gradient in the extended is reminiscent of Feb 1994. That was a snoozer of a month for LAF. ORD did very well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That was a snoozer of a month for LAF. ORD did very well though. Hopefully there wouldn't be an exact repeat, but it's what I thought of when looking at the extended. I'm sure there's other examples of that kind of gradient...I think I have 1994 on the brain after seeing it mentioned on the forum so much in the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not sure if it's been mentioned but the gradient in the extended is reminiscent of Feb 1994. crazy storm here during that time. Biggest sleet storm I ever recall. Temps around 15 and heavy sleet all day, transitioned into thunderstorm freezing rain. Everything was an ice rink the next week. I remember Ohio state students skating down high street on the news. The similarities are there. We had just come out of a brutal cold wave and the baroclinic zone set up very similar to what the euro is depicting in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hopefully there wouldn't be an exact repeat, but it's what I thought of when looking at the extended. I'm sure there's other examples of that kind of gradient...I think I have 1994 on the brain after seeing it mentioned on the forum so much in the past month. lol, it's all I see in the SNE forum. 1993-94 this...1993-94 that. I think we had crummy luck that month (Feb 1994). And...should we expect another tornado this April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Might be good for a pattern change late Feb and never look back...? early spring, sunny and 65F on March 14th? I'll take this now if we can guarantee some decent spring weather...last spring didn't happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Might be good for a pattern change late Feb and never look back...? early spring, sunny and 65F on March 14th? I'll take this now if we can guarantee some decent spring weather...last spring didn't happen here. +100 Wouldn't want to see a repeat of Morch 2012 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 0c line is just at the S tip of the LOT CWA. Marginal temps are awfully close on this one. When I start seeing that snow/rain line that close this far out, I don't have a whole lot of confidence. We'll watch the next few runs and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm thinking it will give a foot to Detroit before moving south, giving Toronto a few mood flakes and then reenergizing to give NYC and Boston 6-12". I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Haha, not so fast. Maybe in March. JB says a battle of the ages is coming from the Great Plains to southern NE I think he put it. Will end up getting air from SSC at times from what I can see. Still looking like widespread - 5-10° normal departures. I want to see if I can get to 70 days of snow cover in a row. Looking possible... His two biggest analogs for February are 1918 and 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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