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Jan 10-12th Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain/Rain event


RyanDe680

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100 plus inch winter of 2007/08 (hate to even bring that winter up again) had January rains and less than 3"  of snow here through the 20th.   Still plenty of time for areas of the sub-forum to challenge some monthly (Jan) and seasonal snowfall records even if their is a Jan lull. Lots of snow to be had yet unless the pattern really goes to hell in febuary but I don't see or feel that happening...  eastern and southern lakes look good to go to me later in the month and beyond.  Just got to get back in to the active pattern without the PNA going and staying to nuts plus for those to the north and west to have a chance.

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Last night's Euro still had the main surge of rain moving up through eastern Iowa, but recent GFS runs have trended toward that surge being farther east with a deformation zone developing in northern Iowa and dropping snow up through MN and WI.  Euro would drop 1 inch of rain on me, while the GFS just light rain followed by a little snow.

 

Edit: Just looked at the 00z Euro and I guess it does have some accumulating snow up in DDL's area as well.

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IWX:

 

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
417 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014 /317 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014/


...POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THE
PRESENT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...COULD RESULT IN A SUDDEN
RELEASE OF RUNOFF ATOP THE FROZEN GROUND. SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...BASEMENTS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS WILL LIKELY FLOOD
FIRST. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LARGER STEM RIVERS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ICE JAMS MAY FOLLOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MAUMEE
AND WABASH RIVER BASINS.

FLOODING IS NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST.
PEOPLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
REGARDING THIS EVOLVING SITUATION AS SMALL CHANGES IN FORECAST
TRACK WILL ALTER THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL

$$

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Huge rainstorm for here.  Euro shows 1.20" of precip for the QC.  Gonna turn our 9-10" of snow into 4-6" of pure glacier.  The bottom 3" is already as solid as a rock.

Its kind of funny looking out over the open fields, as you can see sheets of ice that formed when we got the ZR on top of snow, prior to the dumping we just got. New powder blew away leaving the glacier behind.

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So the GFS has been thrown out some amped solutions the past couple runs(sub 985)...our shortwave becomes negatively tilted as it moves through with a closed and deepening cyclone at the surface and 850/750mb. Starting to look like we see a couple of inches on the backside.

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Not really an IMBY post but generally speaking, if ever there was a case with marginal temps but lingering cold surfaces resulting in icing, this may be it.  We have an arctic airmass that produced bitterly cold temps and the period of "warm" temps prior to the start is not extremely long.  The synoptic setup is hostile for significant icing given lack of a dry/cool low level flow and warmer air will win eventually in most areas but I would not be surprised if icing is a bit bigger issue than the model solutions are currently suggesting.  Dewpoint trends will be interesting to watch as well...if the models are too quick with low level moistening then it could leave a better window for some evaporational cooling.

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No ice accretion in the point and click but DTX has some stongish wording in their briefing

 

• 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain is forecast from late Friday 
afternoon through Saturday morning. 
           • Untreated roads will remain below freezing causing 
             rapid ice accumulation. 
           • Secondary side roads that remain snow covered may 
             become extremely dangerous to drive on. 
           • The bulk of the rain should be absorbed by the snow 
              pack, but some significant ponding of water is possible 
              on the roads.
 
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The models have petered this system out for Iowa and western Wisconsin.  For a while they were at least forming a decent deformation zone and lifting it through DLL's area, potentially dropping a few inches of snow, but now the whole thing looks pretty weak outside the main surge of rain well to the east.

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