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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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radar filling back up nicely in NW IL. Keep sending it in. Would be nice to lose a few degrees to help rati

 

I was wondering what was going on. Looked like nothing was filling it but it was just the radar site I was using (http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?brand=wxmap&query=60124) not showing precip in NW Illinois!

 

2.5 inches on the ground now on the West side of Elgin, IL.

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LSX mentioning thunder.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
813 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 810 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2014

Going to be making a few tweaks to the going forecast based on the
latest model data that is coming in.

1. Precipitation will stay in liquid form across far southern CWA
for much of the overnight period, and perhaps into Sunday morning.
Still forecasting just over six inches for storm total - so no
headline changes needed.

2. Latest NAM, HRRR and RAP model runs show intense upward vertical
motion and convective potential due to steep lapse rates and hints
of true CAPE, or upright convective potentional, tomorrow morning
across the warned area and therefore will be adding mention of
thunder to forecast. Certainly potential for localized snowfall
totals over 12 inches.

Updated forecast and graphics will be out by 9 p.m.

CVKING

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Added the 21z plumes...so a full day's runs.


 


21z...15z...9z...3z snowfall plumes for FWA, IND, and LAF.


 


FWA


mean: 10.9...9.8...9.3...9.6


max: 17.4...18.7...18.2...17.9


min: 4.1...3.3...2.9...3.4


 


IND 


mean: 9.6...9.1...8.7...9.3


max: 15.5...18.8...16.1...17.7


min: 0.5...0.8...2.0...3.0


 


LAF


mean: 12.5...11.7...11.2...10.4


max: 16.6...19.4...16.7...17.4


min: 7.1...7.1...5.1...4.9


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Added the 21z plumes...so a full day's runs.

 

21z...15z...9z...3z snowfall plumes for FWA, IND, and LAF.

 

FWA

mean: 10.9...9.8...9.3...9.6

max: 17.4...18.7...18.2...17.9

min: 4.1...3.3...2.9...3.4

 

IND 

mean: 9.6...9.1...8.7...9.3

max: 15.5...18.8...16.1...17.7

min: 0.5...0.8...2.0...3.0

 

LAF

mean: 12.5...11.7...11.2...10.4

max: 16.6...19.4...16.7...17.4

min: 7.1...7.1...5.1...4.9

 

 

 

 

Nice gradual upward trend in the mean for us.

 

That max/min split at IND is sick.

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Overdone no doubt, but pretty sexy.

 

attachicon.gif21z SREF snowfall LAF.png

 

Man I don't know.  This one looks like a footer for LAF.  Hard to draw up a better scenario on what I'm seeing on the guidance at this point.  With potential convective elements, and all the other insane ingredients coming together I'm thinking 10-13" looks pretty solid there.

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Man I don't know.  This one looks like a footer for LAF.  Hard to draw up a better scenario on what I'm seeing on the guidance at this point.  With potential convective elements, and all the other insane ingredients coming together I'm thinking 10-13" looks pretty solid there.

Yeah it's hard to beat the lift LAF will see during the day tomorrow. Potential for very good snow rates for an extended period of time. As long as you dodge a dryslot you guys are golden. 

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