nrgjeff Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like the Mid South gets even more snow Sunday and Monday. I was (pleasantly) shocked to see a dusting in Chatty Thursday night. This front is stronger; more moisture hangs back in the cold air; dendrite zone will be as MRX describes; and, that difluent flow lingers aloft. Cyclonic flow will remain behind the front longer, compared to the quick clearing Thursday night. I like the low end of NWS discussions at the moment. Wild cards include timing of CAA per NWS discussions and liquid ratios. Dusting to half inch Chatty, 1-2 surrounding mountains; 1-3 from MEM to BNA to Knox, higher maybe 4 Upper Plateau; 2-4 northeast/TRI, local variation noted above; and, hammer time in the Smokies! Kentucky should do well. I'd also look for (lighter) sticking snow from far northern Mississippi through North Alabama into North Georgia. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The first of what will likely be watches/warnings/advisories for almost every county in Tennessee. Southern Kentucky is also going under WSWs. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN347 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014...WINTRY WEATHER INTO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH....LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE ACROSSTHE MIDSOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTAN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNINGWITH MUCH COLDER AIR DRIVEN BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CHANGING THERAIN QUICKLY TO SNOW. MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INEXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND ALONGTHE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDERS.ARZ008-009-017-018-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>021-040600-/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.140105T0900Z-140106T0300Z/RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON347 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EARLY EVENING* IMPACTS...SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITHWINDS OF 15-25 MPH POSSIBLY CREATING SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Your Chatty totals seem spot on. I have a feeling people around here will be highly disappointed come Monday morning. People hear 1-4" ( with high amounts in the Eastern mountains) and now they are talking about the 4" we will get Sunday night. I was having a beer at Champys a few hours ago and people were giddy with the 4 inches "predicted". I just ate my chicken and had my beer while I eavesdropped. I hope it overperforms but this area really needs a gulf low to get any sig snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I ate at Champy's Tuesday evening! I'd say that if any area of the state doesn't end up under a WWA Sunday night, it'll be the Hamilton County area. I still think you'll get snowfall though. 1-1.5 inches probably. Your Chatty totals seem spot on. I have a feeling people around here will be highly disappointed come Monday morning. People hear 1-4" ( with high amounts in the Eastern mountains) and now they are talking about the 4" we will get Sunday night. I was having a beer at Champys a few hours ago and people were giddy with the 4 inches "predicted". I just ate my chicken and had my beer while I eavesdropped. I hope it overperforms but this area really needs a gulf low to get any sig snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 For fun here's Earl's happy hour 18z GFS snow map! From 06z onward the models have generally shown more and more snow for the TN Valley today. I can't imagine much more could be squeezed out but you better believe I'll be glued to the 0z suite tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 i think the ratios will be pretty high this is a serious cold air mass coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This is going to have more moisture and more cold air than what we got last night. If you got snow last night, expect more snow than what you got last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm in north Alabama and have learned not to get excited about anything but a gulf low for snow, but I'm hopeful TN can get some this time around. Local mets are calling for 1-2 inches, which I think is generous for our area. Sent from my KFTT using Tapatalk HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 That's likely the 10:1 ratio map Stove, this should probably be 15:1 or even 20:1. Thus is 18z for East TN/SEKY/SWVA without the 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 For fun here's Earl's happy hour 18z GFS snow map! From 06z onward the models have generally shown more and more snow for the TN Valley today. I can't imagine much more could be squeezed out but you better believe I'll be glued to the 0z suite tonight. We keep seeing a shift all day long.0Z should be well sampled then games on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 According to Reb, the local TV mets here are all over the place on totals. One is calling for 3-5 in the valley (Aldrich), another says very low chance of any accumulation at all (Hinkin no surprise), and one is saying "several" inches (Howell). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 According to Reb, the local TV mets here are all over the place on totals. One is calling for 3-5 in the valley (Aldrich), another says very low chance of any accumulation at all (Hinkin no surprise), and one is saying "several" inches (Howell). TWC says 3-5, accuweather- nadda This could trend drier as we get closer to the storm IMO but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Hinkin never forecasts snow. He forecast 6 inches max for the blizzard of 1993. Said every other station was crazy for talking about a blizzard. Then on their 20 year blizzard anniversary video he talks about how the blizzard snuck up and surprised everyone. It was one of the most well forecast storms ever. Aledrich is odd, he's calling for a burst of uber heavy snow to get to 3-5 and saying all snow will be gone from East TN by day break Monday. I'll be stunned if it doesn't snow all day Monday over a good portion of East TN. According to Reb, the local TV mets here are all over the place on totals. One is calling for 3-5 in the valley (Aldrich), another says very low chance of any accumulation at all (Hinkin no surprise), and one is saying "several" inches (Howell). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Do you guys trust Howell the most? And hello! I'm just a reader with nothing to add but hope. I'm excited you guys started a forum for us and if we do finally get snow again, I think this is the lucky charm. I've read here since early 2011 and don't think I've seen more than a dusting in West Knoxville since. I hope it's ok to post this here. If it needs to be in banter instead, someone let me know, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Do you guys trust Howell the most? And hello! I'm just a reader with nothing to add but hope. I'm excited you guys started a forum for us and if we do finally get snow again, I think this is the lucky charm. I've read here since early 2011 and don't think I've seen more than a dusting in West Knoxville since. I hope it's ok to post this here. If it needs to be in banter instead, someone let me know, please. You should post more Tabby! Howell is easily the most trusted/best met in Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Do you guys trust Howell the most? And hello! I'm just a reader with nothing to add but hope. I'm excited you guys started a forum for us and if we do finally get snow again, I think this is the lucky charm. I've read here since early 2011 and don't think I've seen more than a dusting in West Knoxville since. I hope it's ok to post this here. If it needs to be in banter instead, someone let me know, please. Hi there! I'm a big fan of Todd because to me it's obvious he's very passionate about weather. I turn to him during any severe event and even have some video recordings saved of him during the April 2011 outbreak, his coverage is top notch. He loves winter too and you can see that snow grin take over his face when he's talking models. Thanks for joining the discussion fellow west Knoxvillian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Although this is probably banter, a lot of folks in TRI watch Todd, too....I think he is top notch. I watch Channel 10 a lot to get the latest Vol news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If you're bored waiting for the NAM, here is a weather briefing from the Memphis NWS. http://youtu.be/nkBb_wAKPOQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Thanks for the welcome guys! I always thought he was the best but my knowledge of weather is about what an average person watching TV knows. I won't post more banter here - but I'm pumped about snow! - but I've tried to learn from all of you here but my brain only does debits and credits and just can't do science. ~Teresa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Similar path of the low on 0z NAM at hour 39 but a tad slower, wetter than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z NAM had the low over Eastern Arkansas at hour 45, 0z has it over East Texas at hour 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Similar path of the low on 0z NAM at hour 39 but a tad slower, wetter than 18z. Yep, it's about 150 miles SSE of 12z. Looks more like timing and a bit less like a further south or east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 A littler stronger low but seems to take more of our precip up into KY. Less snow for us this run I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 System moves slower, changeover moves slower too. Probably be around 6 pm for Mid-state, after midnight for East TN on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yep, quite a bit less widespread snow on that particular run. But it's nothing that I'm personally concerned about. The NAM does not handle upslope type snows very well at all either. Has most of the state clearing out quickly when in actuality I figure on a long duration of snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Here is the difference in terms of clowns: 18z NAM: 0z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Best way to figure the NAM out is by the MesoScale this range,it's always off Edit:Not saying it's wrong but it just gives you an ideA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Think this is locked in now,the E/Esm now has it going through E/Tn,realy like this Edit:it has the secondary coming though E/Tn,first i seen this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Think this is locked in now,the E/Esm now has it going through E/Tn,realy like this Jax, the low going through ETN? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Think this is locked in now,the E/Esm now has it going through E/Tn,realy like this link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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