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January 8-10 Storm Potential


RyanDe680

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LOT brought this up in the recent update:

 

DESPITE THE BRIEF WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN INDICATING AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING. MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO POOL INTO THIS INVERTED TROUGH...WITH A MID-LVL WAVE
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
INVERTED MOIST TROUGH...AND MID-LVL FEATURE...COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A LATE WEEK WINTER SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW FOR WED/THUR FOR THE
REGION.

CONFIDENCE IN ARCTIC BLAST...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN MID/LATE WEEK SYSTEM...MEDIUM/HIGH.

 

 

 

Anyone have any insight?  It appears we are in the one right after the other pattern here now.

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There will be a weak inverted trough near Springfield IL with mainly warm advection and weak 500mb vorticity at 102-108 hours. This may provide 3" or more of snow at 25-32F for IN, OH, even though it isn't a strong low. It would be strange to have a good snow event with only southerly winds. In fact it's so weak that I don't even know if there will be a surface trough.

 

post-1182-0-93103100-1388955007_thumb.pn

 

post-1182-0-95155100-1388955008_thumb.gi

 

 

 

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Looks like portions of the region will be good for 1-3" of snow Wed Night-Thursday. Then, a warm up and rain for the weekend. 

Yep,  It looks like rain, and temps near 40 for Saturday and Sunday.  I would hazard a guess that perhaps the highs for weekend are under-done.  I would think highs of 42-45 might be in the offing.  Early part of next week is a return to normal temps, highs look to be between 28 and 32 degrees, at least through Wednesday.

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