Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GaWx suggested we start a new dedicated event thread in relation to the upcoming cold blast that will come in 2 waves, the first starting late tomorrow and lasting through Saturday with the second starting Monday of next week... Just to throw out some general guidelines...all model discussions from here on in regards to cold should fall in this thread...0z model suite should be out in a few hours...I think it would also be fair to discuss wind potential in here because the winds and CAA is a delivery mechanism for the cold...so for example if you want to comment about wind gusts, wind chill values, it would be appropriate here Any comments on snow potential (which will be Northwest flow origin) for both time frames should be made in the current mountain snow thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks for starting, Marion. It will be interesting to see just how cold it gets. As it stands, RAH is forecasting lows in the 15-25 range with highs in the 30s...certainly nothing historic. I suspect it will be colder than that but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The GFS now has CLT with a dew point of -20 at one point next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Damn this thread derailed quick. Who gives a flying flip what anyone up north thinks? Thanks for starting the thread Dan. Looking forward to the obs leading up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like after we go below freezing Monday evening we won't see 32 degrees again until sometime Thursday afternoon. Tuesday morning's low of 7 degrees and Wednesday morning's low of 10 degrees is quite an impressive cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Back on topic - Tallahassee NWS has a nice summary of their expectations (cold and quick, essentially): .LONG TERM [saturday Through Wednesday]...The fast-paced pattern will continue through the long term period.Model guidance shows the anticyclone departing into the WesternAtlantic on Saturday morning and the next storm system gainingstrength across the Rockies. Southerly flow will begin to returnsome moisture to our region on Saturday afternoon. It is aroundthis time that the GFS/Euro continue to show divergent solutionsthrough the end of the period. For the last couple of runs, theGFS seems to slowly be working its way toward the Euro solution,which has been remarkably consistent now for the last five cyclesanalyzed. While there have been subtle changes in the Euro withrespect to magnitude of the cold air into the Deep South, onething though is very clear, that this will likely be the mostsignificant arctic air intrusion into our region of the season.After a seasonable day on Sunday ahead of the developing stormsystem, a strong cold front will pass through the region Sundaynight followed by an arctic front on Monday. There still is somenotable spread between the Euro and GFS-based MOS sets, but withthis forecast package being heavily weighted toward the 01/00z and01/12z operational Euro solutions, have generally stayed away fromany contribution of the MEX numbers into the long term grid blend.As a result, temperatures on Monday will likely struggle to hit 50outside of North Florida - and only slightly warmer in the Floridazones. By Monday night, a strong high pressure area will bebuilding across East Central Texas, and though the gradient willstill be especially tight across our region, expect some areas tohave a good shot at a hard freeze given the magnitude of theincoming cold airmass.This strong high does lift out quickly to the Northeast onTuesday, assuming a position across the Central Appalachians byWednesday morning. Thus, low temperatures at the end of the periodmay not be as cold as otherwise expected following such asignificant influx of arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It will be interesting to see how things play out next week. The models seem to be tempering the low temp possibilities due to the fast flow moving the cold outbreak in and out rather quickly. It would definitely be colder of there was some degree of blocking. Still, Tuesday is going to be a brutal cold day whether or not you have snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'll have to see a -20 dewpoint on my weather station to believe it. With temps like those, I can easily see single digits if not 0 around the NC Piedmont/Upstate SC if clear skies and calm winds prevail. But I think temps will be vary drastically from the cities to outlying areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Friday will be a cold day too. GFS shows a high of 38 Friday at CHS, and next week, back to back days with highs of 36 and 38 Tuesday and Wednesday. Rarely do we have two straight days with highs in the 30s. KOGB (Orangeburg) shows highs of 33 and 34 for those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 lol I will now gracefully withdraw from this thread having said my piece. I would like to announce that when it does get cold, I will post my temps in the obs thread. My post will include reference to any burst pipes or frozen homeless people I might find laying in my yard.Ha! You know I'm just playing around. Feel free to post in here about anyone who has been attacked arcticly.And for on topic, for Raleigh, the NWS has a high of 37 tomorrow and 34 next Tuesday, with a low Tuesday night around 19. If the models are close to correct, those numbers should come down a bit, I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 It will be interesting to see how things play out next week. The models seem to be tempering the low temp possibilities due to the fast flow moving the cold outbreak in and out rather quickly. It would definitely be colder of there was some degree of blocking. Still, Tuesday is going to be a brutal cold day whether or not you have snow cover. Maybe I am wrong in saying this but even if we did have a strongly negative NAO, you need snowpack in order to sustain zero or below zero temps in this part of the country for several days. I do agree that the fast flow is allowing it to move out after 2 very cold mornings coming up (Tuesday and Wednesday) however the next 7 days are going to resemble a negative NAO pattern... just looking at the model trends from today, I think our first cold blast tomorrow night and Friday has more potential than many in the media are giving it. I know on the 12z GFS today it had Asheville for an example go from 48 degrees early Thursday afternoon down to 15 by 12z Friday, the 18z run followed by coming in even colder for Friday morning...lower teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Some good days coming up to get out there and burn that brushpile I've been wanting to get rid of. Forecasting low 30's for highs,good burning weather in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Can someone touch on the wind we may see? NWS has us at 37 tomorrow Tues high 33 low20 Anyways yesterday they had us in the 40's (48 i believe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FFC is forecasting low 20s for much of metro Atlanta next week. Unbelievably cold for early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I have near 20 overnight and 35 for next Tuesday. My "GUT" tells me it will be like 15/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yep. I'm sure there are Alaskans and Canadians who laugh at the upper Midwest people. Where does it end?It all ends in Waycross ! I am looking forward to the likelihood of single digits! The lowest I've had imby in the last 5+ years has been 11.6 degrees! Maybe we can kill some fire ants!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FFC is forecasting low 20s for much of metro Atlanta next week. Unbelievably cold for early January. I have been lurking this week, but this post me me sign up, are you serious? Low single numbers would be "unbelievably" cold not low20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Can someone touch on the wind we may see? NWS has us at 37 tomorrow Tues high 33 low20 Anyways yesterday they had us in the 40's (48 i believe) Are you in or near the mountains of NC? They showed 20-30 sustained and gusts to 50+ by afternoon and evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FFC is forecasting low 20s for much of metro Atlanta next week. Unbelievably cold for early January. lows in the teens usually happens 4 or 5 times a winter around here. Nothing unusual. I admire your consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Subzero or bust for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It all ends in Waycross ! I am looking forward to the likelihood of single digits! The lowest I've had imby in the last 5+ years has been 11.6 degrees! Maybe we can kill some fire ants!!This outbreak looks so lame down here. Our lowest low is 33. Hell we got lower than that last January even with 6 days in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I have near 20 overnight and 35 for next Tuesday. My "GUT" tells me it will be like 15/30 I agree, I think Atlanta will be 5/23....FFC is out to lunch. I called them at 770-486-1133 and talked to a met, Honestly she sounded like a "valley" girl. She had no idea really what I was talking about as far as the potential magnitude for next week. Then I said how amazingly cold it has been in Minnesota and she giggled and said "ya it's freezing up there" hehe. FREEZING??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I agree, I think Atlanta will be 5/23....FFC is out to lunch. I called them at 770-486-1133 and talked to a met, Honestly she sounded like a "valley" girl. She had no idea really what I was talking about as far as the potential magnitude for next week. Then I said how amazingly cold it has been in Minnesota and she giggled and said "ya it's freezing up there" hehe. FREEZING??? Bashing the NWS will not make friends here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I agree, I think Atlanta will be 5/23....FFC is out to lunch. I called them at 770-486-1133 and talked to a met, Honestly she sounded like a "valley" girl. She had no idea really what I was talking about as far as the potential magnitude for next week. Then I said how amazingly cold it has been in Minnesota and she giggled and said "ya it's freezing up there" hehe. FREEZING??? o yea they have been lowering it every time a new forecast comes out it. I think they where just playing the safe road it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Keep the discussion on topic before warnings/timeouts are issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Friday, the temperatures sure do look cold for this time of year... This is the 18z GFS Model run for high temperatures Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Friday is coming in even COLDER this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Friday, the temperatures sure do look cold for this time of year... This is the 18z GFS Model run for high temperatures Friday: I think Friday will nip some people in the butt. 00z GFS gives single digit wind chills across the state which are much more widespread than the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Friday is coming in even COLDER this run. Yep, for North Carolina you might have to go east of I-95 to get above freezing for Friday afternoon...27-28 in the foothills, low 20's around Asheville...teens for the high country above 3500 ft?...Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Friday is coming in even COLDER this run. I know! Now it looks like many areas may remain in the 20s! It is almost 5 degrees cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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