REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Use this thread to discuss model pertaining to the storm pending january 2nd and 3rd. PLEASE try and keep banter to a minimum. Thanks and hope all do well with the storm.Trends are showing are more amplified outcome from a hybrid miller A/B to the GFS showing a pure miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Next model run is the EURO ensembles at 3 P.M - who is doing the play by play ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I know it is just the NAM but i would like to see it get on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I like the idea of this thread, we use to have these back when NYC/PHL were merged. However we use to have one thread for each individual model.. so for example there would be one thread for the 00z GFS, another for the 00z Euro etc. My main question here is if this isn't just a play by play thread, but rather a model discussion thread, then what would the main purpose of the discussion thread we have been using? If I got this right, we would have one thread to discuss model runs, one to discuss storm impacts/trends,and then one for banter? If that's going to be enforced, you are going to need a heavy moderator presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I thought Forky was taking about having a 12z thread...then a 0z thread for each cycle....I guess just ask him but I like that idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not sure if people realize that the cold that is forecasted to come sat AM and again next Tues would be close to 150 year old record cold for NYC . The GFS and Euro take temps down to close to 10 below on Sat and lower with the second shot . The lowest temp ever recorded in CPK is minus 17 - if you rooted on 70 , you are so close you should want to witness this if for nothing else but to see history made Sorry boys wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not sure if people realize that the cold that is forecasted to come sat AM and again next Tues would be close to 150 year old record cold for NYC . The GFS and Euro take temps down to close to 10 below on Sat and lower with the second shot . The lowest temp ever recorded in CPK is minus 17 - if you rooted on 70 , you are so close you should want to witness this if for nothing else but to see history made CPK is Chesapeake, Virginia Central Park is KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not sure if people realize that the cold that is forecasted to come sat AM and again next Tues would be close to 150 year old record cold for NYC . The GFS and Euro take temps down to close to 10 below on Sat and lower with the second shot . The lowest temp ever recorded in CPK is minus 17 - if you rooted on 70 , you are so close you should want to witness this if for nothing else but to see history made Sorry boys wrong thread -17° occurred in the New York City vicinity during the 18th century. The lowest figure since regular recordkeeping began is -15° on 2/9/1934. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ens are a bit further off the coast, +/- 50 mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 -17° occurred in the New York City vicinity during the 18th century. The lowest figure since regular recordkeeping began is -15° on 2/9/1934. I think 1859 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 12z ECMWF ensembles look fine, no red flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 -17° occurred in the New York City vicinity during the 18th century. The lowest figure since regular recordkeeping began is -15° on 2/9/1934. in 1859 , they talked about the Hudson freezing and pp walking to Hoboken from NYC , will not happen now , prob too deep and I think it was cold that entire month to have done that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 12z ECMWF ensembles look fine, no red flags. Does it shift the major snows slightly south of the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Does it shift the major snows slightly south of the OP? No, it looks like you would expect an ensemble mean to look, and is plenty juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The control run is really wound up and just East of AC further west than the Ens mean . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z NAM running, look at that piece of energy in Texas at 36hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 this can be the 18z thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The NAM is still developing that lead vorticy over Northern FL at hour 39. It's going to muck up the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18Z at 57hr 12Z at 63hrs it does appear that the energy might be more consolidated - but the trough isnt as deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM deff improved over 12z but I would still would like to see more. Still pretty far off from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM deff improved over 12z but I would still would like to see more. Still pretty far off from the Euro. H5 improvements were minimal or nonexistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Our energy is still in the GOA... By tomorrow it will begin to be properly sampled over Canada. As time goes on, by the time the ball drops, we will more than likely have our solution etched out (for the most part) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 H5 improvements were minimal or nonexistent. It had a decent improvement with the shortwave energy imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Nam should not be used outside of 48 hrs, and preferably within 36 hrs. We'll likely see radical changes soon with the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Nam should not be used outside of 48 hrs, and preferably within 36 hrs. We'll likely see radical changes soon with the Nam. lol the NAM has been a comical model over that few years in all time frames with big storms like this. But it bothers me that it is more progressive than the other models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Model runs please not model performance records that we already know. Thank you. Up next 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 IMO the nam is in the same place the gfs was yesterday at this time, I suspect when the nam gets into its accurate range it will side with euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 My quick thoughts on the NAM: 1. Any changes, both at 500 mb and the surface were marginal. 2. Rather than focusing on that model's details in the extended range, I'm far more interested in the changes that took place. They were very small and, if this continues in subsequent runs, that might be a hint that the guidance will begin to stabilize (as should be the case as the event draws closer). 3. The evolution on the 18z GFS could provide a further hint as to whether things are moving toward a point where the models will eventually lock in on a solution. Overall, I still don't have changes from my thinking that the NYC area will more likely see a light or moderate accumulation of snow than little or no snow. Odds of a larger snowfall have increased somewhat, but from this far out, I want to see more than the operational ECMWF backing that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Does it shift the major snows slightly south of the OP? It looks a little less amped than the OP with a slightly further east track like the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 18z GFS looks much better than the NAM, the energy is diving down through the Rockies which is what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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