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Potential Winter Storm Jan 3 - 4

Brick Tamland

By Brick Tamland,
in Southeastern States

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

What looked to be long gone now has a glimmer of hope. Models shifted south with the potential storm this weekend. Will we see snow, or rain? Pulling for some snow on Jan 4 for Mrs. Tamland's birthday! She'll take at least 6 inches.

 

 

This...thread...must...deliver... :weenie:

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

The Dallas TX to DC lines unfortunately looks like to hold via the 12z ECMWF run.

 

With the north extreme and south extreme solution over the last few days, the Dallas TX to DC track is most likely the one to verify.

 

Per model output, the NC Mountains do get about 2" out of it.  Nothing else in NC and nothing in Virginia south of Richmond.

 

Time Sensitive Links for WxBell Subscribers:

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013123012/ky/ecmwf_snowdepth_ky_22.png

 

The ECMWF is showing the 2nd system next Monday riding up just east of the App chain in NC  with about a 1 foot dump over Western TN that starts down in TX and NW LA.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013123012/ky/ecmwf_snowdepth_ky_27.png

 

The tail end of the Monday storm does give some backside NW Flow to the NC Mountains and also delivers over 2 feet into the NE States.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013123012/ky/ecmwf_snowdepth_ky_30.png

 

Behind that storm, comes the gruesome ECMWF foretold cold being delivered by the fast flow with -20f surface in the Ohio Valley and -10f surface showing up in the NC Mountains with teens in the foothills and 20s down into the Piedmont.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013123012/ky/ecmwf_t2m_ky_loop.php

 

850s:

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013123012/ky/ecmwf_t850_ky_31.png

 

Updated out to 192:

 

-24f surface showing in NC Mountains.   Below Zero Single Digits into Western Piedmont and Single Digits in Central NC

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013123012/ky/ecmwf_t2min_ky_33.png

 

(Should have put this in the main pattern thread after all)

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
Posted

The Dallas TX to DC lines unfortunately looks like to hold via the 12z ECMWF run.

 

With the north extreme and south extreme solution over the last few days, the Dallas TX to DC track is most likely the one to verify.

 

Per model output, the NC Mountains do get about 2" out of it.  Nothing else in NC and nothing in Virginia south of Richmond.

The trend is our friend

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

This is kind of reminding me of 1/6/96...there I said it...it is showing up on the CIP's analogs.  Granted it's going to need another big shift to get there for NC, but it looks very promising for mtns and central/NoVA.

 

That GEFS member p003 forecast I posted a day or two ago was a remake of it.  The energy held back and dug further south, so much so that it formed a cutoff low over the TN valley.  Doubt we're going to get back there given the time frame, but it's not too far off had certain elements been in place.

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

The only way I see it being cold enough for this storm to produce is if the model’s will start trending towards a CAD signature.  I don’t think we are that far off.  We just need the low to develop in the gulf and not have a strung out axis of low pressure extending up through the ohio valley.  

 

I think this means we need to root for the energy diving down to become more separated from the northern branch than what is currently modeled.  

 

If you look at the GFS, while the the center of the surface low is in the Gulf, winds are out of the southwest at 925mb all the way up to virginia/kentucky. If the gulf low can trend stronger it will get those winds out of the northeast as it transfers to the Atlantic.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

I'm moving on from this storm......it's just not cold enough IMO.  I don't believe in the last minute suprises.  I would be shocked if the models moved the low south AND slowed it down enough to get the cold in first....all 3 days before the storm. 

 

If it happens great, but sometimes you just have to see the writing on the wall and move on.  :maprain:

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

The only way I see it being cold enough for this storm to produce is if the model’s will start trending towards a CAD signature.  I don’t think we are that far off.  We just need the low to develop in the gulf and not have a strung out axis of low pressure extending up through the ohio valley.  

 

I think this means we need to root for the energy diving down to become more separated from the northern branch than what is currently modeled.  

 

If you look at the GFS, while the the center of the surface low is in the Gulf, winds are out of the southwest at 925mb all the way up to virginia/kentucky. If the gulf low can trend stronger it will get those winds out of the northeast as it transfers to the Atlantic.

Some signs of it. With the setup it looks like there would be more of a signature.

 

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_crhlia_h84.gif

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Euro ENS ticked south of the OP, probably 50 miles SE, has secondary reforming just east of the NC/VA border, this would be a plaster the MA type track.

 

I'd just rather it shift north than to see that happen since it isn't nothing but a rain storm for us.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I'd just rather it shift north than to see that happen since it isn't nothing but a rain storm for us.

Your friends from west of the apps thank you for your support.............lol. 

 

In all honesty though, I wonder if we are simply not done with moving this more toward a Miller A with a track similar to the UKMET?

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Your friends from west of the apps thank you for your support.............lol. 

 

In all honesty though, I wonder if we are simply not done with moving this more toward a Miller A with a track similar to the UKMET?

 

LOL, sorry...How bout an inland runner that hits all of Tn. and gives the MA crew rain.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

LOL, sorry...How bout an inland runner that hits all of Tn. and gives the MA crew rain.

I'd rather have a scenario that slides and doesn't run north, impacting both of our subforums with heavy snow and ice, leaving the MidAtlantic and NE high and dry, but what I want and what happens are usually not the same thing....

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I'd just rather it shift north than to see that happen since it isn't nothing but a rain storm for us.

 

For us we would need it off of ILM, be nice if this hit a bunch of areas, even it was the MA to the NE.  Still 3+ days out, the track today isn't set in stone, it might shift another 50-100 miles N or S.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

For us we would need it off of ILM, be nice if this hit a bunch of areas, even it was the MA to the NE.  Still 3+ days out, the track today isn't set in stone, it might shift another 50-100 miles N or S.

 

It would be great if it hit a bunch of areas.  Like you said it is still 3 days out but I'm not sure I see our area getting the cold air in time.  We need it to slow down and dig a little further south and that's a lot to ask 3 days out.  Believe me I would love to be wrong. :-)

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timnc910

timnc910

Posted
Posted

Here's the outlook from morehead. I'm not sure if there is any merit to it...

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TUE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR THE OUTER BANKS. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WED AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MODELS NOW COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THU AND FRI. SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH WEAK LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION THU...THEN STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NC COAST THU NIGHT BEFORE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THU COULD END UP BEING A WET DAY WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF ESP FOR COASTAL AREAS. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR MAY BE CHASING THE MOISTURE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...GFS CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER THAN ECMWF BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN NC. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS...THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES...AND POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW EARLY FRI MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. NO ACCUM OR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BREEZY W/NW WINDS EXPECTED FRI...AND COULD SEE MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON Inland

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

It would be great if it hit a bunch of areas.  Like you said it is still 3 days out but I'm not sure I see our area getting the cold air in time.  We need it to slow down and dig a little further south and that's a lot to ask 3 days out.  Believe me I would love to be wrong. :-)

 

Not a 0% chance, but a very low one

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