Hoosier Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Might be jumping the gun here but I was floored by what the 12z Euro is showing. It's certainly one of the coldest Euro runs I've ever seen in all my years on these boards (haven't even seen the GFS show something that extreme too often lol). The GFS supports it to some extent though less severe in magnitude especially in terms of 850 mb temps. The cold blast looks to coincide with a plunge in the EPO and a -AO. Obviously the million dollar question is just how cold will it get but given the expansive snowcover and more to be added this week, I feel like there's a pretty good chance of a very significant cold shot even if we see some modification in the models as the time approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The polar air can't be ignored this season...and has been over preforming some respects in various setups....one of which was with a limited snowpack....broken records wouldn't shock me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The polar air can't be ignored this season...and has been over preforming some respects in various setups....one of which was with a limited snowpack....broken records wouldn't shock me on the other hand we've also experienced moderation as long range turns to short range. Take the late week system for example. A week ago it was modeled as a suppressed system overwhelmed by the PV. It looked like a winter threat to the southern midatlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 on the other hand we've also experienced moderation as long range turns to short range. Take the late week system for example. A week ago it was modeled as a suppressed system overwhelmed by the PV. It looked like a winter threat to the southern midatlantic. very true in regards to long range modeling...was just speaking in terms of short range forecasts via WFO's and shorter range modeling. But my major point was that we have experienced multiple rounds of sub zero temps already even through December alone, so it wouldn't shock me to see things come to fruition somewhat via what is modeled now. But, yeah, the southward extent and breadth of the cold core is still up for grabs for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We definitely can't ignore the signals, AO and EPO plunging. -30° might be far fetched but widespread -15 - -25° temperatures for a few mornings could come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 00z Euro drops the hammer big time much like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 00z Euro drops the hammer big time much like 12z. Sweet. Better or worse than -28? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Sweet. Better or worse than -28? Not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not sure yet. Wow, what a cold outbreak after 192 hours following that storm. Widespread anomalies around -10 to -15F across many regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 00z Euro drops the hammer big time much like 12z. Yeah it's very cold immediately following the Jan. 1-3 stuff and drops some areas down into the negative teens before the polar vortex relocates over Detroit. Fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy balls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy balls! LOL it will make the 30s feel like a extreme heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy balls! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy balls! lol that about covers it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lol. Too cold. Waiting to see what 2m temps are actually. That's bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 I really hope something resembling the Euro pans out. It's almost a perfect confluence of factors to put up some outrageous numbers with the deep snow field and time of year. The one thing that may be a problem for some areas is lack of ideal radiating conditions at night but it almost doesn't matter if temps aloft are anything like this. Look up the legendary cold days for Chicago or any other city...many of them did not have ideal radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I really hope something resembling the Euro pans out. It's almost a perfect confluence of factors to put up some outrageous numbers with the deep snow field and time of year. The one thing that may be a problem for some areas is lack of ideal radiating conditions at night but it almost doesn't matter if temps aloft are anything like this. Look up the legendary cold days for Chicago or any other city...many of them did not have ideal radiational cooling. Yeah I agree. If we're gonna be cold let's set some records. Gotta love and appreciate the brutality of ma' nature. The heating bills are gonna suck, but we've had it pretty good in that category the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not -20° at LAF on Tuesday morning at least....or this run. Pushing -30° here. Chicago's top 10 coldest readings. Jan. 20, 1985 -27 Jan 10, 1982 -26 Jan. 16, 1982 -25 Dec. 24, 1983 -25 Dec. 24, 1872 -23 Jan. 17, 1982 -23 Jan. 19, 1985 -23 Jan. 21, 1984 -22 Dec 22, 1872 -21 Feb. 9, 1899 -21 Dec. 23, 1983 -21 Jan. 18, 1994 -21 Jan. 9, 1875 -20 Jan. 25, 1897 -20 Jan. 20, 1984 -20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the 80s sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 -25 f*ck that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good thing for the warmth from the lakes... You can see where the models are creating the ice shiels on the water from the temperatures. Have the lakes ever frozen completely over?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 About time we see some real cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good thing for the warmth from the lakes... You can see where the models are creating the ice shiels on the water from the temperatures. Have the lakes ever frozen completely over?? Lake Erie has. Lake Michigan came really close... http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/2013/01/01/ask-tom-why-has-lake-michigan-ever-been-totally-frozen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This looks so yummy! Can't wait... also can't wait for my energy bill afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lake Erie has. Lake Michigan came really close... http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/2013/01/01/ask-tom-why-has-lake-michigan-ever-been-totally-frozen/ According to this article, Lake Ontario completely froze over in February, 1934. http://www.mynewwaterfronthome.com/greatlakesfreeze.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Be nice to walk from Wisconsin to Michigan I'd ride my bike across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Still out there but this is 3 or 4 runs in a row showing this extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Euro has the polar vortex centered over southern Lake Michigan....the things I would do to see that verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 According to this article, Lake Ontario completely froze over in February, 1934. http://www.mynewwaterfronthome.com/greatlakesfreeze.aspx I wondered whether Lake Ontario would stay open somewhat due to it's depth. Lake Superior has never froze over I know. Probably the case with Huron as well. Superior and Huron as huge in area, and the winds would keep areas open. ---- If it does get that cold, Brewers - I hope we moderate quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Be nice to walk from Wisconsin to Michigan I'd ride my bike across. If we set some January cold records and L. Michigan freezes over there should be a WIMI meetup in the middle of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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