snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Placement of PV will dictate how much s/w riding over our PNA ridge will be allowed to amplify. Regardless, complete suppression of SE ridge and confluence from the PV likely means an E-W moving snow shield, regardless of the eventual latitude. I've seen storms like this before and I still think south is the way to go. But recent model runs have been encouraging so I'm willing to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Good morning! You said yesterday that this event is thread worthy. Superstition prevented me from starting it, so I'm glad you did. I enjoyed reading the overnight discussion in the clipper thread. It looks to benefit most of the subforum, some more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Good morning! You said yesterday that this event is thread worthy. Superstition prevented me from starting it, so I'm glad you did. I enjoyed reading the overnight discussion in the clipper thread. It looks to benefit most of the subforum, some more than others. Not once in 8 winters here and at Eastern have I started a thread and gotten the desired outcome imby. So this should make you I-80 corridor huggers golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Final Call (including the 2 minor clippers before it): 6.9991" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 We can lock in the 12z NAM right? lol More amped and further north, S WI gets dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 good run for MKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The NAM is furthest north at 84 hours? I am shocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ride the gfs with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The NAM is furthest north at 84 hours? I am shocked! I know right? Color me shocked on that one.... /sarcasm. Realistically the surface low track doesn't even match its 500mb pattern, that is all the keystrokes I will waste on the NAM at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Might as well add the Tue night/Wed wave to this tread, given it looks like on long period of snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Might as well add the Tue night/Wed wave to this tread, given it looks like on long period of snow now. Agree, some locations may not have more than 6 hours of a break between the two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Placement of PV will dictate how much s/w riding over our PNA ridge will be allowed to amplify. Regardless, complete suppression of SE ridge and confluence from the PV likely means an E-W moving snow shield, regardless of the eventual latitude. I've seen storms like this before and I still think south is the way to go. But recent model runs have been encouraging so I'm willing to wait and see. South? No way. There's no blocking to keep or revert this thing to the south. Typical mid range bias of the models rearing its head. The north shift looks spot on. If you're south of a GBG-IKK-FWA-MFD line...it's pretty much game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 NAM looks like the EURO for the Jan 2-3 stormFWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS and its ensemble suite looks out to lunch. Its PV location is way more progressive then the euro and where its been trending over the last few runs. Nothing blocking the PV from barreling east given the positive NAO forecast consensus. Should help increase wave spacing enough for the AJ/vort max to dig nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Agree, some locations may not have more than 6 hours of a break between the two systems. Hey Stebo, WRT some Lake Huron influence yesterday, whereabouts do you think will experience this influence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 South? No way. There's no blocking to keep or revert this thing to the south. Typical mid range bias of the models rearing its head. The north shift looks spot on. If you're south of a GBG-IKK-FWA-MFD line...it's pretty much game over. Not enough wave length between the PV and the s/w that's attempting to dig and amplify. Yeah, it's transient, but not transient enough. Plus, it's not like the PV is up over Davis Strait. It's at about 50 N, which is death for here, especially when it's that far west. I'll drive to LAF and mow your lawn in the spring Tim if the 12z/29 NAM or a solution further north verifies. Graze job for YYZ is how I'm feeling. You might be a touch south of the best snows but you're still well in the game imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not enough wave length between the PV and the s/w that's attempting to dig and amplify. Yeah, it's transient, but not transient enough. Plus, it's not like the PV is up over Davis Strait. It's at about 50 N, which is death for here, especially when it's that far west. I'll drive to LAF and mow your lawn in the spring Tim if the 12z/29 NAM or a solution further north verifies. Graze job for YYZ is how I'm feeling. You might be a touch south of the best snows but you're still well in the game imho. That's a bet. Big lawn here BTW. But we're gonna agree to disagree. I think YYZ is sitting pretty...and LAF is a goner. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Hey Stebo, WRT some Lake Huron influence yesterday, whereabouts do you think will experience this influence? Sanilac, St Clair and Macomb Counties have probably the best chances. Probably could add in Huron as well for their far eastern portions of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not enough wave length between the PV and the s/w that's attempting to dig and amplify. Yeah, it's transient, but not transient enough. Plus, it's not like the PV is up over Davis Strait. It's at about 50 N, which is death for here, especially when it's that far west. I'll drive to LAF and mow your lawn in the spring Tim if the 12z/29 NAM or a solution further north verifies. Graze job for YYZ is how I'm feeling. You might be a touch south of the best snows but you're still well in the game imho. I'm on the fence now. Snow, or the fun of watching Tim's lawn being manicured.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 That's a bet. Big lawn here BTW. But we're gonna agree to disagree. I think YYZ is sitting pretty...and LAF is a goner. We'll see. I meant your house not the golf course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS continues to show pivot point in play across the I88 corridor in chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 lol at Mike. 12z GFS looks a tick north...but weaker, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS is a bit flat considering the pattern, it will dig at least some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 3 runs in a row from the GFS of 9-11" along I-88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS continues to show pivot point in play across the I88 corridor in Chicago nice 300 jet streak across central IL @ H78 with a nice 850 baro zone setting up across N IL....decent event in the making with temps quite low as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Last 3 runs of the GFS from 0z (top) to 12z (bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like riding the edge up here. But should be dendritic fluff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 nice weenie jackpot on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Going to be interesting to see how LOT handles headlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I like the northern trend on the back side of the storm. I think it will run the same pattern as the last healthy clipper a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.