Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Part IV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Was just thinking it was time for Part IV. That's a boat load of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If we only had enough cold air ....Oh well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I think the 4"-8" call is a bit conservative but we'll see tomorrow....VERY juicy-looking system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 No freezing rain downtown Toronto right now, sitting at 0.8 and slowly dropping. Quite a difference just south of the 401 where there is already about a 0.75 cm of ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I think the 4"-8" call is a bit conservative but we'll see tomorrow....VERY juicy-looking system I kind of wonder if the heaviest snow doesn't end up SE of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 YYZ now down to -0.7C (30.7F) with a TD of -2.1C...winds out of the N at 19km/hr (12mi/hr). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 a little bit of freezing drizzle right now. Can see the moisture in the air really increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 a little bit of freezing drizzle right now. Can see the moisture in the air really increasing. yeah...it was drizzling for the good part of an hour now here....the water had been running off of surfaces up until about 15 minutes ago...now it is beginning to freeze a little bit on elevated surfaces (tree branches, grill, etc.) ... nothing on sidewalks, driveway, etc. yet I guess it is the "shortest" day of the year...so daytime heating influence should have about peaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Maybe recent models downplaying the "real-time" moisture transit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 MCD 2100... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN OK...ERN KS...WRN/CNTRL/NERN MO...W-CNTRL IL CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 211853Z - 212300Z SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 0.10 IN/HR ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM FAR NERN OK/ERN KS NEWD INTO NERN MO AND W-CNTRL IL. DISCUSSION...SEVERAL UPPER VORT LOBES ARE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...850 MB CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENTERS ERN KS/WRN MO BY EVENING. WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INTENSIFY AS A RESULT...AND SUSTAIN MODERATE RAINFALL RATES FROM FAR NERN OK/ERN KS INTO CNTRL/NERN MO AND W-CNTRL IL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HOLD STEADY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S DUE TO WET-BULB COOLING EFFECTS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A 1-3 DEG C WARM LAYER CENTERED NEAR 850 MB. FREEZING RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER ERN KS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL PERSIST OVER MO/IL AS WARM NOSE PERSISTS AHEAD OF 850 MB LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Toronto Island now at 1.1C (34.0) with a td of -0.8 (30.6F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I wonder how warm it will get IMBY; been hovering at 31 for the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Been at 33 +/- 0.5 degrees for 21 straight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 dryslot skirts the southern half of LOT and misses the northern half of LOT per 15Z SREF....FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 9z SREF plumes with 0-11 inches for DKB and 0-9 inches for ORD. I'll just sit back and watch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 NEXT CONCERN IS ICING POTENTIAL. FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THENORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FROM WATERTOWN TO FORT DRUM. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE 32F LINE SHOULD CREEP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSONCOUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S DURING THE HEART OF THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY EFFICIENT ACCRETION OF FREEZING RAIN TO ICE. ADDITIONAL ICE AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA...ON TOP OF WHAT AS FALLEN. IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WOULD PRODUCE A MAJOR ICE STORM IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES THAT WOULD LAST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I kind of wonder if the heaviest snow doesn't end up SE of you. Work for me lol.. Good luck who ever hits the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Still dry and 28 here. Really not expecting precip until between 6-8pm, and even then it looks pretty light until the main show arrives with the deformation band after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 One nice thing about living more north is missing out on most ice storms... that just sounds nasty. Hopefully it doesn't materialize...going any extent of time without power in late December would not be fun. Good reason to have a woodstove and flashlights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 One nice thing about living more north is missing out on most ice storms... that just sounds nasty. Hopefully it doesn't materialize...going any extent of time without power in late December would not be fun. Good reason to have a woodstove and flashlights. I hear ya,hopefully it does not materialize or that would be a disaster for that area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I hear ya,hopefully it does not materialize or that would be a disaster for that area.. yeah, that sounds absolutely nasty....best of luck to ya man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 dryslot skirts the southern half of LOT and misses the northern half of LOT per 15Z SREF....FWIW 18Z NAM continues this trend FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Waterloo is sitting at 1.2C/34F. Rain for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 18z NAM further SE and drier with the defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Ground is mostly wet here but elevated surfaces continue to be glazed. I left my good camera in Edmonton. This is from my phone. You can see the icicles building on the shrub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Waterloo is sitting at 1.2C/34F. Rain for now. Wrong side of the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 nam finally lost that goofy retrograde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 elevated surfaces back to dripping again...no mas ice for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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