gosaints Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Riding the hi res models I take it alek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Riding the hi res models I take it alek? not really...just about all models show the dry punch/screw hole. 12z GFS will follow along. My final calls were terrible. Still stand a outside shot at .8" of snow but that's looking bad as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 WxBell must be running the RAP model graphics. Don't take it seriously...just having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0.5-0.75 cm of ice accretion already up on north Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 NAM coming in even warmer and based on radar trend/meso page, it appears to be doing pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 NAM corrects itself a touch to the southeast with the snow band. A little more lovin' for MKE with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Any sort of ice potential at DTW is over especially with it raining already which is much faster than any model. However the heavy rain and flood potential is going to increase with this earlier start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 1.5 inches final call here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 avatar worthy fail the dryslot trend over the last 48 hours has been very interesting to watch evolve....you had to figure there would be one once some of the QPF "bombness" got squared away...and the details became clearer....but it's another learned lesson to be filed under "things to keep in mind" no matter what the models show 4 or 5 days out (for me at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Any sort of ice potential at DTW is over especially with it raining already which is much faster than any model. However the heavy rain and flood potential is going to increase with this earlier start time. What is your thoughts for Northern Oakland County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Any sort of ice potential at DTW is over especially with it raining already which is much faster than any model. However the heavy rain and flood potential is going to increase with this earlier start time. Yes, I see the rain shield is up to around I-94 already, much quicker than I anticipated. I really wish our icing potential would go away. Sleet and a light glazing would be okay. I'd be happy to get dryslotted, frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Compare, contrast. Parts of southwest IA went from 7-10" on the 0z NAM...to a DAB on the 12z run. Not surprising, considering all of the other guidance. 0z NAM 36 hour totals thru 0z 12/23 12z NAM 36 hour totals thru 0z 12/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yes, I see the rain shield is up to around I-94 already, much quicker than I anticipated. I really wish our icing potential would go away. Sleet and a light glazing would be okay. I'd be happy to get dryslotted, frankly. No kidding It's's all ready a sheet of Ice outside. This is got disaster written all over it around N of 59 to 69 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Riding 32 even here. Precip just moving in, let's see what it falls as... Haven't been outside yet to see if everything's ices or not but we were 33 or 32 most of the night so it's probably not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Also shout out to member to Mping if you got in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Looks like a Saukville Special... Madison looks like a good spot to be...i'll be watching this one from the sidelines... We had freezing drizzle last night...what a pain.. I was talking to my nephew who works for the city...they've never seen so many stoplights hit by cars... They had 3 of them just yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Icing potential at DTW was always pretty low....way too much WAA to overcome with such a weak low level cold flow. They're right in the middle of the atmospheric river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 What is your thoughts for Northern Oakland County? Pretty much a full blown ice storm in that area, especially the further north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Icing potential at DTW was always pretty low....way too much WAA to overcome with such a weak low level cold flow. They're right in the middle of the atmospheric river. Well the problem is that the rain is starting too soon before the northeast low level flow can even get established, if the models had been showing this all along then I wouldn't have been thinking ice for DTW, no model even last night had it raining this soon. Most started around 3-6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Pretty much a full blown ice storm in that area, especially the further north you go. thanks. Time to get the bags packed ready to go if need to. Inlaws here I come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 lol Chicago/NE IL. hrw-nmm_wus_048_precip_p48.gif I'm in the blue at least! 4-8" in my grid this morning. Waking up to 27° with fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 WAA precip is always early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 ok, I'm supposed to drive from Chicago to Minneapolis tomorrow morning at 5am. Do you guys think I should leave tonight? The problem is I can't get out of here until 8pm or so. Looks like the heaviest snow will be moving thru Rockford and Madison around the time I'll be there tomorrow morning. Crappy timing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 crappy timing indeed. leave today or later tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Chitownstorm, you actually might be OK, though you'll probably catch some of the heavier snow. The further west route you take to get there, the better. If your only option for a route is 94, good luck cause you're going to need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Looks like the northern edge of the precipitation to the south is being eroded or has trended south further than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0.5-0.75 cm of ice accretion already up on north Toronto Maybe slightly less here in Etobicoke but I'm no expert in estimating ice build up. Trees all have the ominous greyish-white sheen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yeah I'm not heading all the way over to Des Moines to catch I-35. I-80 is a freakin disaster when it snows. Decisions, decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yeah I'm not heading all the way over to Des Moines to catch I-35. I-80 is a freakin disaster when it snows. Decisions, decisions. [Alek] Punt [/Alek] Good luck on the drive...and do it safely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 HRRR has the transition to freezing rain slowly pushing south across SEMI starting around 21z...ending looking like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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