N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The TAN Obs are clearly broken/off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 15.2 here. Cold Another ho him -10+ departure , prolly negative 12 or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Progressive regimes can be stinky at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 At least we have this Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 27m ECWMF usual error is being to slow with southern branch. Big ticket weather woes develop next week. storm day 6-8 no slouch either JB rules! Always tossing a bone to the weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Well , at least picnic tables will snow in active pattern One can only hope haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 JB rules! Always tossing a bone to the weenies... Happy weenies are paying weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/tropical-waves.html If you scroll down a bit you will find the break down of the tropical state via Current Veloctity potential 200hpa Yep, I look at that too. Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Haven't the gefs been much better overall than than the euro ensembles? I know the euro nailed this coming period, but hadn't the gefs been leading the way? Little concerning that the gefs have gone south. If your not a little alarmed I think your not be completely truthful. There is a chance that in two or three weeks toasters could be flying off the shelves lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Man clear to see why the EC is different. It keeps the PV on our side without really moving it or dissolving it like the GEFS do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Haven't the gefs been much better overall than than the euro ensembles? I know the euro nailed this coming period, but hadn't the gefs been leading the way? Little concerning that the gefs have gone south. If your not a little alarmed I think your not be completely truthful. There is a chance that in two or three weeks toasters could be flying off the shelves lol I'm not that alarmed given the H5 pattern I see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 No wonder bob says the cold is NBD. EWB 23 PVD 21 PYM 21 OWD 21 Magical TAN 27 Is that a joke? Yeah it's not right. I am consistently several degrees cooler than that reading. I'm on the other side of town, but still not that far. That particular post or the readings just shows how wrong it in fact may be.I do think tan is probably a hair warmer a lot of the time, but not by that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Why would the PV move, obliterate, or stay. The key determines who's right perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Man the EC looks pretty good. Hopefully it's closer to being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Why would the PV move, obliterate, or stay. The key determines who's right perhaps. CMC ENS agrees with the Euro, GEFS actually are fine too, below normal and near normal, trough in the East, no torch signal, not understanding the consternation, two and half solid weeks of winter starts next weekend. The thaw always gets people very worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Well I didn't see consternation really. I think people are just discussing model differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Well I didn't see consternation really. I think people are just discussing model differences. Not you I can read Jerrys mind from 90 miles away, he already said so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 CMC ENS agrees with the Euro, GEFS actually are fine too, below normal and near normal, trough in the East, no torch signal, not understanding the consternation, two and half solid weeks of winter starts next weekend. The thaw always gets people very worried. GEFS aren't that good looking after about D12....it means we'd get only a short period of good winter wx. I mean they aren't a disaster, but they are uglier than the EC ensmebles. The only good news is that the 12z GEFS looked like they started retrograding the ridge a bit at the very end...a sign that it might be trending toward the EC ensemble solution. I actually thought the EC ensembles didn't look quite as good as 00z, but they are still nice. It is a good pattern for Miller Bs if we can time a shortwave with the big western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 GEFS aren't that good looking after about D12....it means we'd get only a short period of good winter wx. I mean they aren't a disaster, but they are uglier than the EC ensmebles. The only good news is that the 12z GEFS looked like they started retrograding the ridge a bit at the very end...a sign that it might be trending toward the EC ensemble solution. I actually thought the EC ensembles didn't look quite as good as 00z, but they are still nice. It is a good pattern for Miller Bs if we can time a shortwave with the big western ridge. This didnt look troublesome to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 This didnt look troublesome to me You would like to see the flow more meridional over central Canada and CONUS. That's a pretty warm looking 5H pattern for central Canada and most of the US west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 This didnt look troublesome to me You would like to see the flow more meridional over central Canada and CONUS. That's a pretty warm looking 5H pattern for central Canada and most of the US west of the Apps. Agree. Verbatim we'd probably be torching a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Well I didn't see consternation really. I think people are just discussing model differences. Not you I can read Jerrys mind from 90 miles away, he already said so. Definitely. Let's see how it goes jut flags are out for 2 weeks and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 You would like to see the flow more meridional over central Canada and CONUS. That's a pretty warm looking 5H pattern for central Canada and most of the US west of the Apps. Jan 1961 style? LOL I understand what you are showing, if we have our own private party does not bother me. Long ways off anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Really surprised no one brought up the fact the Euro Ens show a snow storm on the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The ridge axis was pretty sharp at the end with a bit of retrogression. If that happened, I think we'd be set. Of course I am only speaking of the model verbatim. I mean I definitely could see something where we are in a 5-7 day colder spell then maybe a piece of the ridge breaks off east and triple points us with 546 thicknesses and then another reinforcing shot of colder air follows...something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Really surprised no one brought up the fact the Euro Ens show a snow storm on the 15th Because they don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I see some bagginess off the coast on the 16th, but that is a big stretch saying it's a snowstorm..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Because they don't? Could easily be a front, that is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Could easily be a front, that is a stretch. snow event maybe I have to delete that ,but its totally different than the op, colder and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Looks a miller b or overrunning pattern post Jan 15. No bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Looks a miller b or overrunning pattern post Jan 15. No bombs Leon's pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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