December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 2

[Chicago Storm]

Part II.

[Stebo]

Just to continue on hm8's post about wishing for an ice storm, personally I am all for whatever is the most interesting outcome, which thankfully this really is a no lose situation in that case. Worst case scenario if I lose power I am sure a hotel will gladly appreciate my business. So bring on the ice

[dmc76]

...CHICAGO... January 26, 1994.  FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COATED NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF ICE. TEMPERATURES MODERATED A BIT BY THE NEXT DAY...BUT HEAVY RAIN FELL ON TOP OF THE ICE IN THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA CAUSING WIDE SPREAD FLOODING OF STREETS AND BASEMENTS. UP TO 60,000 CUSTOMERS IN THE CHICAGO AREA WERE WITHOUT POWER DUE TO THE STORM...SOME FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

 

[Hoosier]

Wanted to bring this post over from the old thread so I could reply...posted by extremewx52

 

One note I will add about icing potential is that temperatures in the low 30s won't cut it for a fzra event with how heavy the precipitation will be falling. I have seen several heavy rain events at 30 and 31 degreees that provide little ice accretion due to the intensity. Temperatures typically need to be in the upper 20s for a significant ice storm with heavy precip.

Edit: Alek beat me to it!

 

 

I'm sure you're correct in general but don't other factors besides rates come into play as well?  i.e. how cold it's been prior to the storm, max temp in the warm layer aloft, sfc dewpoints, etc? 

[Ajdos]

Looks like nam is much colder/weaker with first wave

[cyclone77]

 

...CHICAGO... January 26, 1994.  FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COATED NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF ICE. TEMPERATURES MODERATED A BIT BY THE NEXT DAY...BUT HEAVY RAIN FELL ON TOP OF THE ICE IN THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA CAUSING WIDE SPREAD FLOODING OF STREETS AND BASEMENTS. UP TO 60,000 CUSTOMERS IN THE CHICAGO AREA WERE WITHOUT POWER DUE TO THE STORM...SOME FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

 

 

 

Was gonna respond in the other thread.  The one I remember here was in December.  This is the only thing I can find about it.

http://books.google.com/books?id=3bJESVYf5r4C&pg=PT112&lpg=PT112&dq=quad+cities+ice+storm+1994&source=bl&ots=epEyYTAGuO&sig=ieOkverNlWq5-juQiqG4BPuQOxM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=CAuxUo-aJsiIyAHi8oH4Ag&ved=0CGsQ6AEwBw#v=onepage&q=quad%20cities%20ice%20storm%201994&f=false

[Thundersnow12]

^Hot hand

[dmc76]

Was gonna respond in the other thread.  The one I remember here was in December.  This is the only thing I can find about it.

 

 

Well I guess the calender year of 1994 had two Ice events for Iowa

 

 

January 26, 1994, 1:00 p.m. to January 27, 1994, 3:00 a.m. Most of Iowa: Freezing rain swept over the state, causing an estimated $500.0K in property damage

 

[Stebo]

Wanted to bring this post over from the old thread so I could reply...posted by extremewx52

 

 

 

 

I'm sure you're correct in general but don't other factors besides rates come into play as well?  i.e. how cold it's been prior to the storm, max temp in the warm layer aloft, sfc dewpoints, etc? 

 

See that is the one thing about this event that is a bit misleading, the models show a lot of QPF, but it isn't a bunch of heavy rain. The QPF comes from it being a prolonged event, in the warm sector there will be heavy rain and thunderstorms, but I don't see that being the case in the cold sector of the storm.

[Hoosier]

Impressive temp gradient near the track of our eventual storm

 

[cyclone77]

Susceptibility of tree species from this article I just spent a little time reading. 

 

Here's some light reading if you're bored between model browsing...

http://web.extension.illinois.edu/forestry/publications/pdf/urban_community_forestry/trees_and_ice_storms_2006.pdf

[The_Global_Warmer]

the nam is way South with the trough and vort max.

 

 

[huronicane]

Sort of OT, but this cartoon kind of reminds me of what we have going on this weekend:

 

[Thundersnow12]

The 0z NAM sure does look impressive with our wave, 1002mb low developing over Del Rio, TX with a wide open gulf to tap. It does have a stronger cold push compared to the GFS up in SD/ND FWIW.

 

[Chicago Storm]

Let the NAM-ness begin.

[Boogieman]

 

...CHICAGO... January 26, 1994.  FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COATED NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF ICE. TEMPERATURES MODERATED A BIT BY THE NEXT DAY...BUT HEAVY RAIN FELL ON TOP OF THE ICE IN THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA CAUSING WIDE SPREAD FLOODING OF STREETS AND BASEMENTS. UP TO 60,000 CUSTOMERS IN THE CHICAGO AREA WERE WITHOUT POWER DUE TO THE STORM...SOME FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

 

 

I SOOO will pass on this scenario!

[A-L-E-K]

the nam is way South with the trough and vort max.

 

 

 

 

meh, it's nice that it's coming into range, we'll have to see how the next few runs trend. looks warm to me.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The 0z NAM sure does look impressive with our wave, 1002mb low developing over Del Rio, TX with a wide open gulf to tap. It does have a stronger cold push compared to the GFS up in SD/ND FWIW.

 

it is also still positively tilted as the vort crosses into SW Texas.  This should allow the 1st wave over the lakes push the colder air a bit further South.

 

I am glad the nam held its ground.  Most of us really need the SLP to track from AR/LA/TX into the Northern Tennessee Valley.

[Thundersnow12]

meh, it's nice that it's coming into range, we'll have to see how the next few runs trend. looks warm to me.

 

 

 

quicker/colder push up north though.

[Thundersnow12]

it is also still positively tilted as the vort crosses into SW Texas.  This should allow the 1st wave over the lakes push the colder air a bit further South.

 

I am glad the nam held its ground.  Most of us really need the SLP to track from AR/LA/TX into the Northern Tennessee Valley.

 

Eh. It's pretty much neutral tilt I'd say.

[snowstormcanuck]

meh, it's nice that it's coming into range, we'll have to see how the next few runs trend. looks warm to me.

 

 

I'm so eager to post this comparison, I hereby withdraw my NAM extrapolation objection.

 

 

18z GFS valid the same time. Notice how the northern stream system on the NAM is shifted somewhat to the east of the southern stream trough axis. That to me would allow for my confluence, and a somewhat colder solution.

 

FWIW

[cmichweather]

warmer 850s and extrapolated would be slightly worse than the already horrendous 18z dgex. Lets see if the gfs holds course, any further north correction tonight will make for a very disappointed group. 

 

meh, it's nice that it's coming into range, we'll have to see how the next few runs trend. looks warm to me.

 

[A-L-E-K]

quicker/colder push up north though.

 

the whole baroclinic zone is tighter than what the GFS was showing by 12z Sat...warmer here, colder over the N. plains...we'll see how the models trend over the next few runs.  The only constant remains the incredible moisture transport vectors.

[Boogieman]

Oh yay! We have two willow trees, in the lowest part of the backyard along the fence row, right where the utility lines all run. The drop to the house goes right through one. They're not healthy, to say the least. They were supposed to have been removed like two or three years ago by the power company, but they skipped over them when they cut the neighborhood for some reason. I think I'll rattle someone's cage at the power company tomorrow.

 

And that cartoon pretty much nailed it.

[A-L-E-K]

I'm so eager to post this comparison, I hereby withdraw my NAM extrapolation objection.

 

 

We've had 4 runs showing warning criteria snow from the Euro....NAM madness was going to happen. Time to embrace it.

[Thundersnow12]

the whole baroclinic zone is tighter than what the GFS was showing by 12z Sat...warmer here, colder over the N. plains...we'll see how the models trend over the next few runs.  The only constant remains the incredible moisture transport vectors.

 

Yep, more impressive baroclinic zone will only fuel the fire for rapid cyclogeneis if that ends up being the case.

[Toronto4]

Here's a report from Environment Canada in 1969 discussing ice storms in Canada. It includes a map on page 2 which shows the amount of freezing rain that fell in southern Ontario/Toronto on January 13-14, 1968.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008%3C0927%3AETHOIA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

[snowstormcanuck]

Here's a report from Environment Canada in 1969 discussing ice storms in Canada. It includes a map on page 2 which shows the amount of freezing rain that fell in southern Ontario/Toronto on January 13-14, 1968.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008%3C0927%3AETHOIA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

Nice find. I like how the contours basically follow the shape of the Niagara Escarpment/Oak Ridges moraine. In a NE flow those topographical features create a nice CAD barrier for Toronto.

[Justin]

The potential for rapid cyclogenesis was what made me thing yesterday this would put on the left turn signal.  I still am not writing off a further Westward correction.  Although I don't see to much more of a left solution really to be realistic, but its the atmosphere....so anything is possible. 

 

I certainly don't think anyone will be getting 20" of snow out of this either...a more realistic bet is probably 7-12" of cement quite possibly.

[Harry]

The 2 big things i'll be watching for..

 

1. Where the system ejects into Texas and or where the surface low develops. Thus keep a eye on the UL/Vort. The further south in Texas the harder it is gonna be for this to go nw. The exception would be if it remained closed off and got cut off.. Systems that close off and especially get cut off from main flow can go anywhere. I typically use Amarillo as a good starting point with systems that track over my head or to the nw of here. Not all do mind you and the same applies to those that form further south in Texas which a majority of tend to stay to my se except here and there.

 

2. System in Canada which the NAM moves along a tad quicker. This would be our source for cold. Timing on this is critical..Faster = better ( unless too fast unless you are south of here ofcourse ) and slower equalls worse and thus more ice and or rain regardless of where the main system tracks.