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December 19-20th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Nice.. We'll have to wait and see how this evolves over the coming week. Should be a quick hitting snowfall for some while others mixing/ice. Doesn't look overly loaded with moisture but it will set the stage for what may follow. 

 

So far trends are good as it continues to track further south. 

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Expect little input into this thread from IN/OH posters for this snowpack destroying rain.

 

actually I was rooting for this one to be strong and pull down that boundary to set up the 23rd storm...gladly sacrificing our snowcover for a potential bigger prize.  Doesn't look like that's gonna happen.   So instead it'll wipe out our (or at least my), snowcover for the heavy rains on the 23rd.... :axe: .

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This probably won't be a snow torcher here, probably lose a couple inches off our pack, but unfortunately this is one of those few situations where I pray for freezing rain to coat our snow in order to preserve it and perhaps keep it layered well.

 

Precipitation amounts are not that great either. Will end up with a glacier on the ground and that will make a good base for the/a bigger event.

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For the GTA, this system is borderline between rain and snowfall as temperatures are marginal. Focusing on the latest 0Z GFS, it would start off as snow and then transition into some mixing. It shows mixing/rain right along the Lake shoreline however areas further inland stay predominantly as snow. A nice 8-15cm if it verified using 8:1 snow ratios. However, its a sharp-cut off and slightly further south including Oakville/Hamilton start off as snow then change over to some rain showers. But only slightly above freezing. Perhaps some CAD could work-in. 

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For the GTA, this system is borderline between rain and snowfall as temperatures are marginal. Focusing on the latest 0Z GFS, it would start off as snow and then transition into some mixing. It shows mixing/rain right along the Lake shoreline however areas further inland stay predominantly as snow. A nice 8-15cm if it verified using 8:1 snow ratios. However, its a sharp-cut off and slightly further south including Oakville/Hamilton start of as snow then change over to some rain showers. But only slightly above freezing. Perhaps some CAD could work-in. 

 

The GFS has kind of been on its own with this even being borderline. EURO, NAM, GEM would be all rain, even as far north as Barrie.

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The GFS has kind of been on its own with this even being borderline. EURO, NAM, GEM would be all rain, even as far north as Barrie.

 

Yeah lets hope things can trend for the better but at this point in time I dont see temperatures as high as EC is advertising, occurring. The 0z NAM was fairly weak with this system which is a first, lol. This storm will set the stage for the following event depending how much it can cool temperatures down following it. 

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The 00z/06z GFS, 00z GGEM and the 12z NAM are much colder for Friday's event. It's showing a mainly snow event with a possible mix by Lake Ontario. Environment Canada is calling for periods of snow or rain on Friday for Toronto with a high temperature of 34 (previous forecasts had temperatures into the low 40s).

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The 00z/06z GFS, 00z GGEM and the 12z NAM are much colder for Friday's event. It's showing a mainly snow event with a possible mix by Lake Ontario. Environment Canada is calling for periods of snow or rain on Friday for Toronto with a high temperature of 34 (previous forecasts had temperatures into the low 40s).

 

Hopefully this will help bring down more cold for the big system. Pretty much the only reason I'm watching this storm for now.

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Hopefully this will help bring down more cold for the big system. Pretty much the only reason I'm watching this storm for now.

Latest GFS shows snow changing to rain/mixing for those along the Lake shoreline however, areas slightly further inland stay as snow. Near the lake, amounts are closer to 3-6cm whereas areas more inland including YYZ could pick up a good 4-6".

Its a sharp cutoff but we could work in some CAD with the aided snowcover.

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I know there is a lot of posts in the 23rd storm but this one is important.  From what I have seen in the past this front runner system tends to lay a path and put into place the cold air for the following big dog.  I really like that this thing has trended a bit cooler.   40s are no longer in my forecast!

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Latest GGEM is very similar to the 12z GFS across Southern Ontario. Starts off with some light rain showers but quickly transitions over to snow. It stays as mixing/rain right along the lake shoreline but areas further inland pick up a good 4-7". However, 3-6cm is not out of the question for areas near the Lake as CAD works in once the front passes.

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Latest GGEM is very similar to the 12z GFS across Southern Ontario. Starts off with some light rain showers but quickly transitions over to snow. It stays as mixing/rain right along the lake shoreline but areas further inland pick up a good 4-7". However, 3-6cm is not out of the question for areas near the Lake as CAD works in once the front passes.

Looks like the models have a couple of waves of precip that pass through our area. One late Thursday night into Friday morning (mix of snow/rain) and another one late Friday night into early Saturday morning (mainly snow).

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Looks like the models have a couple of waves of precip that pass through our area. One late Thursday night into Friday morning (mix of snow/rain) and another one late Friday night into early Saturday morning (mainly snow).

 

The initial wave will be rain most likely but just some light showers then another wave mid afternoon Friday-thru Saturday morning which features mostly snow as low level cold air works in and cools temperatures down. The second wave is the primary Low and will feature the most precipitation. 

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I'm starting to think this event has the higher probability of verifying wintry as opposed to Sunday's event.

I agree. It's amazing that only a few days ago forecasts were calling for temperatures in the low 40s for Friday. I wonder if things will trend in our favour for Sunday's event as we get closer.

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I agree. It's amazing that only a few days ago forecasts were calling for temperatures in the low 40s for Friday. I wonder if things will trend in our favour for Sunday's event as we get closer.

 

We'll see. Trends so far have not been favourable. I think Sunday's event has more raw potential but I think Friday's storm has a higher probability of actually producing snow and/or ice.

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I'm starting to think this event has the higher probability of verifying wintry as opposed to Sunday's event. 

Euro not there yet but its trending in the right direction. CMC by far most aggressive with swath of 4-6" through the GTA. Snow pack would be crazy if that weenie scenario verified. Snow depth already better then we have seen in a long time, this early in december.

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Euro not there yet but its trending in the right direction. CMC by far most aggressive with swath of 4-6" through the GTA. Snow pack would be crazy if that weenie scenario verified. Snow depth already better then we have seen in a long time, this early in december.

 

Yeah, I notice the EURO has been edging south the last 3 runs. The other interesting thing to watch for is whether that intermediate wave the NAM/GEM/EURO have for Friday night-Saturday materializes. GFS has been pretty steadfast showing otherwise.

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