Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nice.. We'll have to wait and see how this evolves over the coming week. Should be a quick hitting snowfall for some while others mixing/ice. Doesn't look overly loaded with moisture but it will set the stage for what may follow. So far trends are good as it continues to track further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ^Hot hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ^Hot hand Easy to have a hot hand when nobody else gets to start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 ^Hot hand Rollin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GGEM still cuts the Low through the Northern Great lakes and shows widespread light rain showers/mixing event. It seems slightly further south however. UKMET has a track similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Expect little input into this thread from IN/OH posters for this snowpack destroying rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Expect little input into this thread from IN/OH posters for this snowpack destroying rain. actually I was rooting for this one to be strong and pull down that boundary to set up the 23rd storm...gladly sacrificing our snowcover for a potential bigger prize. Doesn't look like that's gonna happen. So instead it'll wipe out our (or at least my), snowcover for the heavy rains on the 23rd.... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 With the extensive snow cover in the region, I'd stick with 30s for highs. Here for Wednesday, 29° and sunny. Thursday, 37° rain and snow. Then falling to 30° overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Point for here has 4 phases of precip in the forecast for Thu night lol. Thursday Night A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 This probably won't be a snow torcher here, probably lose a couple inches off our pack, but unfortunately this is one of those few situations where I pray for freezing rain to coat our snow in order to preserve it and perhaps keep it layered well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 This probably won't be a snow torcher here, probably lose a couple inches off our pack, but unfortunately this is one of those few situations where I pray for freezing rain to coat our snow in order to preserve it and perhaps keep it layered well. Precipitation amounts are not that great either. Will end up with a glacier on the ground and that will make a good base for the/a bigger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 For the GTA, this system is borderline between rain and snowfall as temperatures are marginal. Focusing on the latest 0Z GFS, it would start off as snow and then transition into some mixing. It shows mixing/rain right along the Lake shoreline however areas further inland stay predominantly as snow. A nice 8-15cm if it verified using 8:1 snow ratios. However, its a sharp-cut off and slightly further south including Oakville/Hamilton start off as snow then change over to some rain showers. But only slightly above freezing. Perhaps some CAD could work-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 For the GTA, this system is borderline between rain and snowfall as temperatures are marginal. Focusing on the latest 0Z GFS, it would start off as snow and then transition into some mixing. It shows mixing/rain right along the Lake shoreline however areas further inland stay predominantly as snow. A nice 8-15cm if it verified using 8:1 snow ratios. However, its a sharp-cut off and slightly further south including Oakville/Hamilton start of as snow then change over to some rain showers. But only slightly above freezing. Perhaps some CAD could work-in. The GFS has kind of been on its own with this even being borderline. EURO, NAM, GEM would be all rain, even as far north as Barrie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The GFS has kind of been on its own with this even being borderline. EURO, NAM, GEM would be all rain, even as far north as Barrie. Yeah lets hope things can trend for the better but at this point in time I dont see temperatures as high as EC is advertising, occurring. The 0z NAM was fairly weak with this system which is a first, lol. This storm will set the stage for the following event depending how much it can cool temperatures down following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 00z/06z GFS, 00z GGEM and the 12z NAM are much colder for Friday's event. It's showing a mainly snow event with a possible mix by Lake Ontario. Environment Canada is calling for periods of snow or rain on Friday for Toronto with a high temperature of 34 (previous forecasts had temperatures into the low 40s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 00z/06z GFS, 00z GGEM and the 12z NAM are much colder for Friday's event. It's showing a mainly snow event with a possible mix by Lake Ontario. Environment Canada is calling for periods of snow or rain on Friday for Toronto with a high temperature of 34 (previous forecasts had temperatures into the low 40s). Hopefully this will help bring down more cold for the big system. Pretty much the only reason I'm watching this storm for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Could be some freezing rain or sleet here (probably only going to be 0.15-0.25"QPF though). Looks like the GFS yields little if any liquid, and perhaps an inch of snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Hopefully this will help bring down more cold for the big system. Pretty much the only reason I'm watching this storm for now.Latest GFS shows snow changing to rain/mixing for those along the Lake shoreline however, areas slightly further inland stay as snow. Near the lake, amounts are closer to 3-6cm whereas areas more inland including YYZ could pick up a good 4-6". Its a sharp cutoff but we could work in some CAD with the aided snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I know there is a lot of posts in the 23rd storm but this one is important. From what I have seen in the past this front runner system tends to lay a path and put into place the cold air for the following big dog. I really like that this thing has trended a bit cooler. 40s are no longer in my forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Latest GGEM is very similar to the 12z GFS across Southern Ontario. Starts off with some light rain showers but quickly transitions over to snow. It stays as mixing/rain right along the lake shoreline but areas further inland pick up a good 4-7". However, 3-6cm is not out of the question for areas near the Lake as CAD works in once the front passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Latest GGEM is very similar to the 12z GFS across Southern Ontario. Starts off with some light rain showers but quickly transitions over to snow. It stays as mixing/rain right along the lake shoreline but areas further inland pick up a good 4-7". However, 3-6cm is not out of the question for areas near the Lake as CAD works in once the front passes. Looks like the models have a couple of waves of precip that pass through our area. One late Thursday night into Friday morning (mix of snow/rain) and another one late Friday night into early Saturday morning (mainly snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like the models have a couple of waves of precip that pass through our area. One late Thursday night into Friday morning (mix of snow/rain) and another one late Friday night into early Saturday morning (mainly snow). The initial wave will be rain most likely but just some light showers then another wave mid afternoon Friday-thru Saturday morning which features mostly snow as low level cold air works in and cools temperatures down. The second wave is the primary Low and will feature the most precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm starting to think this event has the higher probability of verifying wintry as opposed to Sunday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm starting to think this event has the higher probability of verifying wintry as opposed to Sunday's event. I agree. It's amazing that only a few days ago forecasts were calling for temperatures in the low 40s for Friday. I wonder if things will trend in our favour for Sunday's event as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I agree. It's amazing that only a few days ago forecasts were calling for temperatures in the low 40s for Friday. I wonder if things will trend in our favour for Sunday's event as we get closer. We'll see. Trends so far have not been favourable. I think Sunday's event has more raw potential but I think Friday's storm has a higher probability of actually producing snow and/or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm starting to think this event has the higher probability of verifying wintry as opposed to Sunday's event. Euro not there yet but its trending in the right direction. CMC by far most aggressive with swath of 4-6" through the GTA. Snow pack would be crazy if that weenie scenario verified. Snow depth already better then we have seen in a long time, this early in december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Euro not there yet but its trending in the right direction. CMC by far most aggressive with swath of 4-6" through the GTA. Snow pack would be crazy if that weenie scenario verified. Snow depth already better then we have seen in a long time, this early in december. Yeah, I notice the EURO has been edging south the last 3 runs. The other interesting thing to watch for is whether that intermediate wave the NAM/GEM/EURO have for Friday night-Saturday materializes. GFS has been pretty steadfast showing otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.