Powerball Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I noticed that DTX has 2-4" in my grid for Monday Night/Tuesday. EDIT: My grids HAD 2-4" prior to the 12/14/13 Afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Finally a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yess! looks decent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 ! 0.7" final call Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 DAB for alek. 0.7" is his jackpot prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I noticed that DTX has 2-4" in my grid for Monday Night/Tuesday. Huh. Nothing in my forecast, and their afd only mentions "an inch or two" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Huh. Nothing in my forecast, and their afd only mentions "an inch or two" I had 1-3" in my point and click earlier, now it shows mostly cloudy with no snow. I completely disagree with the no snow for Monday night. All models have the clipper tracking through here overnight. Their snow map forecast also disagrees with their point and click/zone forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 BOOOOOO- Nam is showing NOTHING with this one...NADA, ZILCH.....BOOOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Crazy to think some places could be looking at double digit snow depth all of a sudden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Crazy to think some places could be looking at double digit snow depth all of a sudden Was just thinking about that. Hopefully we don't melt it away with rain later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I think that's what usually happens around here? We never see snowfall fall on top of snowfall. Since I moved from Germany in 1999 to Detroit, I don't ever recall having a significant snowfall on the ground and another significant snowfall to fall on top (except we do get clippers) ...However I do know that we get a pretty good snowfall and several days later it rains, washes away the snow, new one falls, etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 We never see snowfall fall on top of snowfall. February 28th - March 5th, 1900 says hey. February 2nd - February 6th, 2011 says how you doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 GFS looked nice for most of the region. Showed a general 1-2" for SE Michigan and around 3-4" for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 GFS does look nice! Probably high ratios again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Before this clipper happens, 700mb temps will drop to -30C above Lake Superior tomorrow night. Just think, this will be a 30-32C temperature differential between the lake water and 700mb. (35F - (-22F) ) = 57F temperature difference. This could briefly create some of the most impressive LES clouds over the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Crazy to think some places could be looking at double digit snow depth all of a sudden Im at 9". it will settle some, hopefully we dont lose too much Friday. The warmup certainly will be brief, but the question is how warm will it get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 February 28th - March 5th, 1900 says hey. February 2nd - February 6th, 2011 says how you doing. Obviously we get snow on snow all the time here. Not sure what ajdos' threshold of significant...but obviously Mar 1900, Jan 1978, Feb 2011 are examples of significant snow on top of significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 @ Chinook. That'll be an interesting time to watch the radar along Lake Superior! GGEM with the Clipper. Diving it down pretty far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 There's also another weaker clipper moving through Iowa into Illinois tomorrow and tomorrow night. Looks to drop a dusting to perhaps an inch of high ratio powder along it's track. As it stands now we could get a half inch or so from that and maybe another half inch with the second clipper. Penny and nickeling our way to a decent month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Didn't even see that Clipper Cyclone! The second one is hands down stronger. Looks like you could pick up at least an inch from both. Ratios will probably be 20:1. West of Detroit is basically the result of the Clipper. East of Detroit is where the departing system snow is still being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Based upon the other model guidance I think the NAM can be tossed, which at this junction shouldn't be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 CMC total for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Sort of like last week...The 1st clipper (15-16th) and 3rd clipper (18th) will be weak, while the 2nd clipper (16-17th) will be the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I love clippers, you always have low expectations for them and sometimes they over perform like crazy. I remember a few predicting 1-3 inches and ended up with 6-8 inches. A few have been over 10 inches but those are very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 February 28th - March 5th, 1900 says hey. February 2nd - February 6th, 2011 says how you doing. And don't forget the clipper that fell 3 days before GHD (4")... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 This is for today/tonight's clipper. 14z RAP shows a little 0.1" lolli near Hawkeye. 20:1+ ratios should make for a narrow 1-2" swath of fluffy powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Wow, 15z RAP came in hot. Nice 2" swath of snow from QC down towards LAF/Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 It sure would be nice to squeak out 2" this week to bring season total to 12" before Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 good discussion from LOT MONDAY...THE CLIPPER CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY. BASICALLY THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FAIRLY HIGH RATE/HIGH RATIO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COULD OCCUR. THE MAIN IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT A QUICK 1 OR EVEN 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THE AFTERNOON RUSH...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO BASED ON TIMING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM UP UNTIL THIS POINT BUT HAS BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACKING FORCING FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE UPPER CIRCULATION/VORT MAX OBSERVED OVER EAST-CENTRAL ALBERTA AT THE CURRENT TIME. TRAJECTORIES BRING THIS TO THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING THE TRENDS OF MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. ONCE THE WAVE ARRIVES...MID LEVEL UPWARD FORCING EXTENDS THROUGH THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THOUGH IT MAY BE CENTERED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OR JUST BELOW...FOR A SHORT TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA...STRENGTHEN AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES WITH POTENTIAL VORTICITY PLOTS SHOWING A PRONOUNCED SURGE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE NOSE OF A 110+KT UPPER JET MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS AND SPREAD THEM SOUTHWARD ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA. THE LARGEST INCREASE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKFORD TO SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO TO VALPARAISO LINE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. POTENTIAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.05 TO AROUND 0.1 INCH RANGE NORTH OF THE ROCKFORD TO VALPARAISO LINE WITH EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS OF APPROX 16-18:1...WHICH COULD EVEN BE A BIT LOW. THIS YIELDS HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH WITH 2 INCHES POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER...WHILE AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROP OFF SOUTH OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA. CONSIDERING THE ALIGNMENT OF FORCING/MOISTURE/SNOW GROWTH MENTIONED ABOVE ACCUMULATION RATES OF 0.5-0.75 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS 2-4 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST WOULD LIKELY WIND DOWN BY THE EVENING ROCKFORD COMMUTE BUT ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR THE CHICAGO EVENING COMMUTE. HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OVERALL SCENARIO WITH LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL STRETCH GIVEN THE VARIATION WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE COULD BE HIGHER BUT HAVE ENOUGH TO TAKE THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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